Dean Eckles
LightNews LightNews
banner
eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles
@eckles.bsky.social
9.5K followers 1.3K following 320 posts

networks, contagion, causality
faculty at MIT

Videos
Mathematics 19%
Physics 19%
Posts Replies Media Videos

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 1h
I think it computes SEs in a way that is justified by the design, but which also turns out to largely coincide with robust SEs

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Dean Eckles, Ann Bartow , and 1 more

lebassett.bsky.social
Laura Bassett @lebassett.bsky.social · 2h
They’re burying the weirdest part of this story, which is that this congressman’s twin brother keeps trying and failing to replace him in various jobs and is now hoping to replace him in this one
Soon after Nehls' announcement, his twin brother Trever announced his bid for the House seat, stating he would "follow in Troy's footsteps and stand shoulder-to- shoulder with President Trump." Trever Nehls, attempted to replace his brother as Fort Bend County sheriff in 2020 and lost in the election. He ran for Fort Bend County judge in 2022 but was also defeated.

Reposted by Dean Eckles

koenfucius.bsky.social
koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 9h
We shouldn’t be too quick to see inconsistent beliefs as evidence of irrationality.

Cool research by @bayesandbounds.bsky.social & @tanialombrozo.bsky.social suggests inaccessibility of an apparently conflicting belief can lead to (temporary, quickly resolved) inconsistency:

buff.ly/QncPtjq

Reposted by Dean Eckles

scottwiener.bsky.social
Senator Scott Wiener @scottwiener.bsky.social · 9h
The “we can’t possibly build more homes because our infrastructure isn’t perfect” argument is ubiquitous in San Francisco housing debates.

It’s effectively saying “sorry, no home for you until all infrastructure is perfect — go live 100 miles away.”

The argument is also factually baseless:
Does S.F. have the ‘infrastructure’ to support Lurie’s housing plan? Let’s consider
Housing opponents love to say we lack “the infrastructure” to accommodate new neighbors our otherwise inclusive communities. What are they talking about?
www.sfchronicle.com

Reposted by Dean Eckles

parkingreform.org
Parking Reform Network @parkingreform.org · 1d
Minimum parking requirements create financially insolvent land use patterns.

The two apartment buildings on the right generate six times more in property taxes than the big box store on the left, while occupying almost half the space!

#BlackFridayParking
Satellite image of a commercial development along a stroad. On the left there's a big box store that says "Property taxes: $102,485, Parcel Size: 17,766 meter square. On the right there's two apartment buildings that read "Property taxes: $626,002, Parcel Size: 10,930 meter square"

Reposted by David R. Miller, Dean Eckles

nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 1d
Pete Hegseth is Secretary of Defense *because* he championed war criminals. Literal war criminals convicted of heinous offenses in US courts martial. Got Trump to pardon some in term 1.

Not in spite of, because.

That's what Trump appointed, and what 50 GOP Senators (plus Vance) voted to confirm.

Reposted by Dean Eckles

soodoku.bsky.social
soodoku @soodoku.bsky.social · 1d
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."

www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 1d
Makes me think of the "oil spill" model of polarization, and broader discussion by @jdtuccille.bsky.social here
reason.com/2021/02/17/p...
Politics Is Seeping Into Our Daily Life and Ruining Everything
Is there anything that politics can't ruin? The answer, it appears, is a resounding "no" as partisan conflict creeps into…
reason.com

Reposted by Dean Eckles

astrezh.bsky.social
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 2d
“However, in a follow-up discernment task, subjects often confuse authentic videos for deepfakes if the video depicts an elite in their political party in a scandal.” www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
Political Deepfakes Are as Credible as Other Fake Media and (Sometimes) Real Media | The Journal of Politics: Vol 87, No 2
There is widespread concern that political “deepfakes”—fabricated videos synthesized by deep learning—pose an epistemic threat to democracy as a uniquely credible form of misinformation. To test this ...
www.journals.uchicago.edu

Reposted by Dean Eckles

theramseylab.bsky.social
The Ramsey Lab @theramseylab.bsky.social · 2d
The surprising crab-trap–pulling behavior is described in this article: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

We recently published a paper on how animal tool use is conceptualized, offering a framework to make sense of its different forms 👇📃 www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #evosky #philsci

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Rosemary A. Joyce, Robert C. Richards , and 6 more

bradheath.bsky.social
Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 2d
Reuters reached out to everyone that Trump or his subordinates singled out publicly for retribution, and reviewed hundreds of official orders, directives and public records. The result: the most comprehensive accounting yet of his campaign of payback.

www.reuters.com/investigates...

Reposted by Brigitte Nerlich, Dean Eckles, Richard Pettigrew , and 1 more

scientificdiscovery.dev
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 3d
Imagine you lived in the 18th century.

Smallpox kills 1 in 3 cases. Yet you can’t culture pathogens, don’t know germ theory, and have no idea what a virus is. How would you invent a vaccine?

In a new episode of HARD DRUGS, we trace the history of vaccines!
The history of vaccines
open.spotify.com

Reposted by Dean Eckles

walterolson.bsky.social
Walter Olson @walterolson.bsky.social · 3d
Trump issued “a full, complete, and unconditional pardon to all United States citizens” for conduct related to the 2020 election. Now a man facing federal prosecution for voting twice (once in PA and once in FL, both times for Trump) says he's covered and should go free. [VoteBeat] /1
Did Trump accidentally pardon a man accused of voter fraud?
Legal scholars say Trump’s 2020 election pardon may have unintended consequences.
www.votebeat.org

Reposted by Jacob T. Levy, Scott A. Imberman, Dean Eckles , and 1 more

gregsargent.bsky.social
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 3d
Note that the BBC openly admits in an email to me that the removal of this claim about Trump's world-historical corruption was done "on legal advice."

Translation: Trump's threat of a lawsuit, no matter how bogus, has now been rewarded.

newrepublic.com/article/2036...

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 4d
Congratulations!

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 4d
So you're saying Gen AI isn't helping your productivity? :)

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Dean Eckles

alexpghayes.com
alex hayes @alexpghayes.com · 4d
Keith and I strengthened our lower bounds for randomized experiments in the linear-in-means model to a general minimax result

Updated results available at arxiv.org/abs/2410.10772

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Jean Burgess, American Library Association , and 13 more

abeba.bsky.social
Dr Abeba Birhane @abeba.bsky.social · 4d
can’t fucking catch a breath

make it stop
Is ChatGPT Conscious? Many users feel they’re talking to a real person. Scientists say it’s time to consider whether they’re onto something. By Jeff Wise, a science journalist and private pilot.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Nandita Sharma, Joe R. Feagin , and 6 more

davidjbier.bsky.social
David Bier @davidjbier.bsky.social · 4d
ICE deported a woman who owned a home in the US for 30 years. A judge banned ICE from deporting her to Sierra Leone where she had been tortured, so it deported her to Ghana, which kidnapped her and sent her back Sierra Leone anyway. ICE is part of this illegal conspiracy.

Reposted by Dean Eckles

davidzipper.bsky.social
David Zipper @davidzipper.bsky.social · 4d
$10.69 for a 15-minute ride?

For visitors, public bikeshare often feels like a ripoff.

In CityLab, I explored why.
Bikeshare Shouldn’t Kick Tourists to the Curb
Barcelona’s bikeshare program excludes non-Spanish visitors. Other cities charge tourists much higher fees to rent two-wheelers. Which policy makes more sense?
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Fabián Muniesa, Dean Eckles, Annette Yoshiko Reed

annamerlan.bsky.social
Anna Merlan @annamerlan.bsky.social · 4d
NEW: When Propecy Fails is one of the most famous social psychology books of all time, a look at a small group of UFO believers when the “spacemen” failed to land. I wrote about a new study from an independent researcher who says the book is not what it seems. www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
It’s one of the most influential social psychology studies ever. Was it all a lie?
A classic book on UFO believers and their "cognitive dissonance" after aliens failed to land is called into question.
www.motherjones.com

Reposted by Dean Eckles

jackspice113.bsky.social
JLoki @jackspice113.bsky.social · 4d
Ed, you’ve looked at NVIDA very closely lately and given really good information. Is there any plan to do the same scrutiny on Google and its ai efforts? Google seems to be the only mag 7 company that isn’t circular financing NVIDA and seems to be the company Altman is most concerned about now

Reposted by Dean Eckles, Susan D. Amussen

bachynski.bsky.social
Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · 5d
“From the night of the massacre onward, Ms. Fletcher was never again able to sleep comfortably in a bed, she wrote…
“When I sleep, it is never very deep or for very long because of the anxiety and the things I see,” she wrote. “Imagine having the same horrible nightmare every night for 100 years.”
Viola Fletcher, Oldest Survivor of the Tulsa Race Massacre, Dies at 111
www.nytimes.com

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 5d
theonion.com/fuck-everyth...

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 5d
You've generated an example to haunt diff-in-diff believers

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 5d
And it would be even more credible imo without the gap, even if it looks approximately additive

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 6d
OK but maybe you find the point persuasive that past coverage of internal research has been actively misleading about what we can conclude from it, so we might want to cautiously interpret new claims about what such research shows

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 6d
I'm a big fan of actually plotting unnormalized trends of the treated and control groups. So often diff-in-diff is leaning really heavily on parametric assumptions to extrapolate. cf statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/08/22/t...
thefacebook and mental health trends: Harvard and Suffolk County Community College | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 6d
The cited survey data had more teen girls saying
Instagram made them feel better than worse...

eckles.bsky.social
Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 6d
Would be interested to learn more... Like this prior headline was based on research that was quite ambivalent.