Iikka Korhonen
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iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen
@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social

Head of BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies), not representing the official views of my employer, RTs not endorsements

https://t.co/E0YqzEKBp7

Economics 82%
Political science 9%

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

„Arm Ukraine to win costs: €522-838 billion. Let Russia win and rearm Europe: €1.2-1.6 trillion—double the cost. Plus 6-11 million additional refugees.“

Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Corisk estimations.

euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/03/b...
Norway did the math: Arm Ukraine to win, or pay double when Russia does
A new study finds Europe faces a simple choice: back Ukraine now for half the price, or pay far more later to deter a stronger Russia.
euromaidanpress.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Industrialists gripe that working cultures, energy costs and bureaucracy are killing the country’s competitiveness.

ILO statistics show that the average German works 29.6 hours a week, compared with 36.1 hours in the United States and 44.8 hours in China.
The great slowdown: Germany at a standstill as ‘China shock’ hits

As Europe’s biggest economy is pummelled by structural problems and external threats, rocky China ties are compounding the dreary picture

My report from a rather depressing week in Berlin
The great slowdown: Germany at a standstill as ‘China shock’ hits
As Europe’s biggest economy is pummelled by structural problems and external threats, rocky China ties are compounding the dreary picture.
www.scmp.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Musk has continued to escalate this anti-EU rhetoric… with help from friends & leaders of industry, Joe Lonsdale and David Sacks. He’s also saying (falsely, by definition) that embracing far right ideology is just being normal.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

❗️Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski responds to Elon Musk:

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

This will be decided by Europeans.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

A WSJ analysis of satellite images shows clear evidence of the Chinese military’s expanding footprint through a network of facilities that dot the Tibetan plateau – WSJ
Chinese Forces Battle Dizzying Altitudes to Expand Military Footprint
A Wall Street Journal analysis of more than 100 satellite images shows clear evidence of the country’s expanding air power and reach.
www.wsj.com
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
Russian Ambassador Slams EU Frozen Assets Plan for Ukraine - The Moscow Times
A European Union plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's fight against Russia would have “far-reaching consequences” for the EU, Moscow's ambassador to Germany warned on Friday.
www.themoscowtimes.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

I have a couple of quick questions on language for American friends and colleagues. These are serious, genuine questions, as in I really don't know the answer but am interested to find out.

1/3

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

All EU countries except Germany and Finland have now recovered to pre-COVID GDP levels

Fastest: Ireland (50.2%), Malta (35.8%), Cyprus (30.1%), Croatia (22.8%), Bulgaria (18.5%)

Slowest: Germany (-0.2%), Finland (-0.0%), Estonia (2.0%), Austria (2.8%), France (5.2%)
Today, we fined X for non-compliance with transparency obligations under the DSA.

We're holding X accountable for:
🔹Deceptive design of its ‘blue checkmark’
🔹Lack of transparency of its advertising repository
🔹Failure to provide access to public data for researchers

link.europa.eu/bcmC87
According to French media reports the 🇫🇷 navy last night shot down five drones flying over the Ile Longue, in Brittany, home to France’s SNLE nuclear-armed submarines, the naval component of France’s nuclear deterrent

"In the first ten months of this year, revenues from the production tax were down by 25 % y-o-y. The initial budget assumed an average export price of $70 per barrel, but the actual average price was likely around $60 a barrel."
2/

"..oil extraction tax has accounted for 25–30 % of federal budget revenues in recent years. The size of the extraction tax depends on the average export price of #Russia n crude oil. With the decline in oil prices, this year’s tax take is expected to fall well short of the budget target." 1/
​BOFIT Weekly Review 49/2025
New sanctions reduce export price of Russian oil

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

"...nearly half of #Russia ’s total oil exports ship via Baltic Sea ports, specifically the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Another quarter of Russian crude ships via ports located on the Black Sea, with the remaining share (just over 20 %) shipped in the Far East."
​BOFIT Weekly Review 49/2025
New sanctions reduce export price of Russian oil

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

"US officials argued to member states that the assets are needed to help secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow and should not be used to prolong the war, said the diplomats.."

....

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Urged Europeans to Oppose EU Plan for Loan to Support Ukraine
The US lobbied several countries in the European Union in an effort to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, according to European diplomats famil...
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

​BOFIT Weekly Review 49/2025
New sanctions reduce export price of Russian oil

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

The U.S. Treasury Department has extended authorization for Lukoil-branded gas stations outside Russia to continue operating, suspending some sanctions on the Russian energy giant.
U.S. Suspends Some Sanctions on Russian Oil Giant Lukoil - The Moscow Times
The U.S.
www.themoscowtimes.com

Just downloaded my #ASSA2026 event app…

www.aeaweb.org/conference/
ASSA 2026 Annual Meeting
www.aeaweb.org

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

OFAC extended the time during which financial transaction may still be done with Lukoil International GmbH till April 29th 2026... GUYS WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE!?!?!?

www.kommersant.ru/doc/8251862
США продлили разрешение на операции с зарубежным бизнесом ЛУКОЙЛа до 29 апреля
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Recent data indicate that China has expanded many parts of its social safety net & that consumption spending has accelerated. But given China’s aging population, safety net spending & domestic consumption spending will need to expand further to put China’s economy on a more sustainable path.
Does a weak social safety net hold back private consumption in China?
Many experts see China’s economy as constrained because of a weak social safety net, especially the retirement system, resulting in anemic domestic consumption spending. This view is out of date. Rece...
www.piie.com

#Russia November PMIs
Composite output 50.1 (was 50.2)
Manufacturing 48.3 (48.0)
Services 52.2 (51.7)

Clear pickup in the service production in the past two months, manufacturing still contracting.

”There is an economic disturbance coming from this war. It is also crystal clear, and that is the basis for this regulation, that if you were to provide . . . the cash to Russia, that the capacity for Russia to create even more disturbances to the economy is big.”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Europe exhausts legal tricks on frozen Russian assets
Proposal marks a last-ditch attempt to keep Ukraine solvent using Moscow’s immobilised wealth
giftarticle.ft.com
Manufacturing snapshot - Sept production, Nov employment #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

China export controls push European firms to move supply chains – Reuters: ‘The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said one in three member companies was looking to shift sourcing away from China due to Beijing’s export control regime’
China export controls push European firms to move supply chains
China's tightening export controls are pushing European firms to explore new supply chain capacity outside of the world's second-largest economy, a European lobbying group said on Monday, seeking cove...
www.reuters.com

”Europe does have one big card: its control of the bulk of Russian central bank assets frozen since 2022. The EU has prevaricated for so long on how or whether to use this card that it risks losing it altogether.”
🇪🇺
on.ft.com/48IlcnM The EU should play its Russian assets card
The EU should play its Russian assets card
There are ways to overcome a Belgian block and provide game-changing support to Kyiv
on.ft.com

”..regulations seek to formalise the vast informal sector, slashing gig contracts, expanding coverage of social security to include India’s more than 10mn gig workers and establishing the right to minimum salaries… and grant free annual health check-ups for employees.”
🇮🇳
on.ft.com/4pcrfa5
India gets to grips with biggest labour law shake-up in decades
New regulations seek to formalise gig economy but some workers argue it makes it easier to be fired
on.ft.com