Iikka Korhonen
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iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen
@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social

Head of BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies), not representing the official views of my employer, RTs not endorsements

https://t.co/E0YqzEKBp7

Economics 82%
Political science 9%
European leaders outline their security guarantees for Ukraine:
- Support for the Ukrainian army (800k troops)
- Multinational force inside Ukraine
- Mechanism to monitor & verify ceasefire
- Legally binding assistance for future attacks (Article 5-like)
- Post-war recovery assistance
- EU accession
Statement by Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Frederiksen, President Stubb, President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Prime Minister Schoof, Prime Minister Støre, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Kri...
www.bundesregierung.de

#Russia National Welfare Fund end-November $169.5bn, up from $164.0bn end-October. Liquid funds $51.2bn, down from $51.8bn.
📢 The Call for Papers for the 𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗶𝗳𝗼 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, organized by Monika Piazzesi and @apeichl.bsky.social is now open!

📆 Friday, 12 June - Saturday, 13 June 2026.
Keynotes: Yueran Ma (Chicago) and @ludwigstraub.bsky.social

ℹ️ www.ifo.de//w/8817c910
One big topic this week: the #Mercosur agreement. It would be absolutely appaling if the #EU again delayed. France should drop its absurd call for yet another delay. We have been debating this agreement for 25 years and yes, there are lot's of safeguards for special interests already.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟴𝟲𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝗿
𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙥 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙨 “𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙧” 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙉𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙖’𝙨 2nd-𝙗𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝘼𝙄 𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙥 to China. Blowback in Washington grows over national security risks. open.substack.com/pub/dexter/p...
Trade War
Trump approves “game changer” sale of Nvidia’s second-best AI chip to China. Blowback in Washington grows over national security risks. And Beijing may spurn latest American semiconductor offering, fo...
open.substack.com
The cultural impact of Rob Reiner cannot be understated. Legend isn't big enough a word. It goes to 11. You can't handle the truth. As you wish. I'll have what she's having. I'm your number one fan. You guys wanna see a dead body? The very idea of a bucket list. The West Wing.

All from his movies.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

💥Viktor Orbán is fuming after the EU agreed to indefinitely immobilise €210bn in Russian assets, sidelining his veto threat. He now calls it a “declaration of war” — again ignoring that it was the Kremlin’s war that triggered the move. Orbán's isolation within the EU continues.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Also in declaration: Italy, Belgium, Malta and Bulgaria say they voted in favour of the Article 122 Regulation indefinitely immobilise the Russian assets but stress this does not "pre-empt" the final decision at leaders' levels nor "constitute precedent" in foreign policy.

Interesting analysis on trade fragmentation. China is really sui generis. Other countries re-orient their exports along geopolitical lines, especially in high tech goods, but China sells more to everyone (except the US).

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Understanding Trade Fragmentation
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Just sent out my free weekend update. Was quite a week in the land war, started with great doom for Ukraine and ended with the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kupyansk and advancing in a week twice as much as the Russians advanced in 4 months. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #163: Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk
The Two Negotiations; Stirrings in Europe
open.substack.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

🇦🇹 Austria exposes FSB network posing as "Ukrainian Nazis" - profil

According to the investigation, the campaign covered not only Austria, but also other European countries. The network was coordinated by Austrian, who has been working for the Russian special services for a long time.
This week had more new measles cases than sales of “American Canto”.

Hope the media is proud.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Ales Bialiatski, who won Nobel prize while behind bars, is freed from prison in Belarus reut.rs/3Yp05AP
Ales Bialiatski, who won Nobel prize while behind bars, is freed from prison in Belarus
Human rights campaigner Ales Bialiatski fought for decades on behalf of political prisoners in Belarus, earning the Nobel Peace Prize but paying the cost of his own freedom.
reut.rs

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Important: the Regulation strictly forbids member states from recognising and enforcing any claims, such as claims for compensation, that the Russian state and others acting on its behalf might file in relation to the sovereign assets.

This applies to all EU territory.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

The weekend is here and @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social is out! Read about the federal deficit, Putin in India, health care development plans, protests in Kursk, Bashneft shares and more!

Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!

open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Mind the gap
New analysis of the Russian federal budget shows a widening deficit
open.substack.com
Isn’t it amazing that China leaves Europe in the dust on EVs yet the EU policy response is to be more lenient on regulating combustion engine car emissions?
Cards on the table: By locking in the Russian assets for good, the European Union is finally playing hardball.

And it offers a preview of what life could look like without unanimity in foreign policy.

My weekend analysis.
By locking in Russian assets for good, the EU finally plays hardball
In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilise the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparation...
www.euronews.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

5/6
But where will this investment go? Not into property investment, which is still declining. Part of it will go into infrastructure, but that is getting harder and harder to justify. My guess is that we'll see an investment surge in the "ten major industries" selected...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

North Korea sent troops to clear mines in Russia's Kursk region earlier this year, leader Kim Jong Un has said, in a rare acknowledgement by Pyongyang of the deadly tasks assigned to its deployed soldiers.
North Korea Acknowledges its Troops Cleared Mines for Russia - The Moscow Times
North Korea sent troops to clear mines in Russia's Kursk region earlier this year, leader Kim Jong Un said in a speech carried on Saturday by state media, a rare acknowledgement by Pyongyang of the de...
www.themoscowtimes.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

🙏 Czechia delivers all 1.8 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine
Czechia delivers all 1.8 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine
Czech President Petr Pavel has stated that the goal of supplying Ukraine with large-calibre ammunition has been achieved.
www.pravda.com.ua

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Wide childhood measles vaccination ⬆️ Americans personal earnings by about $450 per person per year.

Estimate contrasts long-run adult earnings of people who grew up just before vs after measles vax rolled out decades ago.

Burning our present & future, for what?
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

European employment rates held near record highs in data released today, with EU prime-age employment stable at 82.7% & Eurozone employment falling to 82%

Malta (90.6%), Slovenia (90.1%), Czechia (88.6%) had the highest while Italy (74.5%), Romania (77.5%), & Greece (78.8%) had the lowest

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

EU Member States prohibit return of Russian central bank assets in EU to Russia until Russian hostilities no longer disrupt EU economy www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...
The EU just decided to indefinitely immobilise Russian assets.

This ensures that up to €210 billion in Russian funds stay on EU soil, unless Russia fully pays reparations to Ukraine for the damage it has caused. (1/2)

Helsinki

…toteutuneet öljytulot voivat olla huomattavasti odotettua pienemmät. Ilman muita toimia myös valtiontalouden alijäämä olisi silloin selvästi budjetoitua suurempi, noin 2,5% BKT:stä vuosina 2026‒2027.Jos vientihinta laskisi 40 dollariin tynnyriltä…voisi alijäämä kasvaa noin 3% BKT:stä.🇷🇺
Venäjän talous on edelleen haavoittuvainen öljyshokeille

Lue Heli Simolan blogi 🔗 www.eurojatalous.fi/fi/blogit/20...

#Venäjä #Ukraina #talous #öljy #eurojatalous @suomenpankki.fi

”…the yuan has weakened since the start of this year by 9 % against the euro. China’s real effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate, REER, was 4 % weaker in October compared to the start of the year and, this year, has been at its weakest level since 2012.”🇨🇳
​BOFIT Weekly Review 50/2025
A weak yuan exchange rate this year has supported China’s exports

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

”In recent months, construction investment has declined by about 20 % y-o-y in nominal terms, while the volume of apartment sales (measured in square metres of floorspace) has also contracted by 20 %. The volume of new building starts has fallen by 30 % y-o-y.”🇨🇳
​BOFIT Weekly Review 50/2025
Chinese developers enter fifth consecutive year of financial struggles

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview