Iikka Korhonen
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iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen
@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social

Head of BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies), not representing the official views of my employer, RTs not endorsements

https://t.co/E0YqzEKBp7

Economics 82%
Political science 9%

#Russia November PMIs
Composite output 50.1 (was 50.2)
Manufacturing 48.3 (48.0)
Services 52.2 (51.7)

Clear pickup in the service production in the past two months, manufacturing still contracting.

”There is an economic disturbance coming from this war. It is also crystal clear, and that is the basis for this regulation, that if you were to provide . . . the cash to Russia, that the capacity for Russia to create even more disturbances to the economy is big.”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Europe exhausts legal tricks on frozen Russian assets
Proposal marks a last-ditch attempt to keep Ukraine solvent using Moscow’s immobilised wealth
giftarticle.ft.com
Manufacturing snapshot - Sept production, Nov employment #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

China export controls push European firms to move supply chains – Reuters: ‘The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said one in three member companies was looking to shift sourcing away from China due to Beijing’s export control regime’
China export controls push European firms to move supply chains
China's tightening export controls are pushing European firms to explore new supply chain capacity outside of the world's second-largest economy, a European lobbying group said on Monday, seeking cove...
www.reuters.com

”Europe does have one big card: its control of the bulk of Russian central bank assets frozen since 2022. The EU has prevaricated for so long on how or whether to use this card that it risks losing it altogether.”
🇪🇺
on.ft.com/48IlcnM The EU should play its Russian assets card
The EU should play its Russian assets card
There are ways to overcome a Belgian block and provide game-changing support to Kyiv
on.ft.com

”..regulations seek to formalise the vast informal sector, slashing gig contracts, expanding coverage of social security to include India’s more than 10mn gig workers and establishing the right to minimum salaries… and grant free annual health check-ups for employees.”
🇮🇳
on.ft.com/4pcrfa5
India gets to grips with biggest labour law shake-up in decades
New regulations seek to formalise gig economy but some workers argue it makes it easier to be fired
on.ft.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

@martinsandbu.ft.com (generously) discussing our plan with Moritz Schularick and Philipp Hildebrand for joint financing of next generation defence capabilities (and their spillovers). @kiel.institute @voxeu.org @cepr.org
Opinion: The EU must make itself minimally vulnerable to inevitable US pressure, writes Martin Sandbu on.ft.com/4itV7fz

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

⚡️Daughter of former South African president resigns from parliament amid investigation into Russian military recruitment scheme.
Daughter of former South African president resigns from parliament amid investigation into Russian military recruitment scheme
Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, the daughter of former South African President Jacob Zuma, resigned from parliament after being accused of helping lure 17 South African men to fight for the Russian military i...
kyivindependent.com

The level of naivete is staggering. ”Wandel durch Handel”, anyone?
🇷🇺🇺🇸
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com

”To solve the cheating problem, OPEC has created another obfuscation mechanism, which it calls “compensation.” OPEC nations that overproduce are told to compensate for their misbehavior later, reducing production temporarily.”

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
OPEC’s Numbers Are an Exercise in Artistic Deception
On the eve of a contentious OPEC meeting in the 1980s, one of the cartel’s top officials penned a poem that caused quite a stir among his colleagues. As the group meets on Sunday facing the danger of ...
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Oracle has taken on so much debt in order to build out its infrastructure to support the anticipated $300B in usage from OpenAI, that Morgan Stanley has now flagged it as a credit risk and a target for short selling.

I guess this is the closest you can get to shorting OpenAI.
Morgan Stanley thinks you should short Oracle
Single-name CDS are so hot right now
www.ft.com

”China’s energy consumption is expected to peak over the next five years and plateau thereafter….China’s oil consumption is expected to peak before 2030, and then fall to 16.2 mb/d in 2030 and to 15.8 mb/d in 2035 (Current Policy Scenario) or to 15 mb/d (Stated Policy Scenario).”🇨🇳
​BOFIT Weekly Review 48/2025
Electricity’s share of global energy consumption to grow; global oil consumption could start to decline before 2035

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

”Tepid domestic demand was also evident in bank lending growth, which fell to a historically low level of 6.3 % y-o-y. Nearly all growth came from corporate lending, while household loan stock was only half a percent higher than a year ago.”🇨🇳
​BOFIT Weekly Review 48/2025
China’s economic growth slowed in October

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

​BOFIT Weekly Review 48/2025
Electricity’s share of global energy consumption to grow; global oil consumption could start to decline before 2035

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

​BOFIT Weekly Review 48/2025
China’s economic growth slowed in October

Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...

#China #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview

I agree that the average quality may be low, but if the mass of papers is LARGE, then in many areas there will be groundbreaking papers as well.

How sanctions made a showpiece Chinese refinery's Western partners run for the exits

"Yulong's non-Russian suppliers, foreign customers, banks and vendors ran for the exits, Reuters reporting shows, leaving it with little option but to buy even more Russian oil"

www.reuters.com/business/ene...
How sanctions made a showpiece Chinese refinery's Western partners run for the exits
When Shandong Yulong Petrochemical opened its Singapore office a year ago, the company staged a lion dance to herald prosperity for the new $20 billion oil refiner at the centre of modernisation effor...
www.reuters.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

”…country is close to overtaking the US in total expenditure on R&D, with China spending $781bn and the US $823bn in 2023, according to the OECD. It is a stark change from 2007 when China’s R&D spending of $136bn was less than one-third of the $462bn spent by the US.”

on.ft.com/3KpbKw6 🇨🇳
Is China winning the innovation race?
Once the world’s factory, Beijing’s relentless focus on R&D means the country has become the world’s laboratory
on.ft.com

Kiinan energiankulutuksen odotetaan saavuttavan huippunsa seuraavan viiden vuoden kuluessa ja sen jälkeen tasaantuvan…Kiinan öljynkulutuksen odotetaan saavuttavan huippunsa ennen vuotta 2030 ja olevan nykytasoon (16,2 mb/d) verrattuna jonkin verran pienempää vuonna 2035..”🇨🇳
​BOFIT Viikkokatsaus 48/2025
Sähkön osuus maailman energiankulutuksessa kasvaa, öljynkulutus voi kääntyä laskuun ennen vuotta 2035

Lue lisää 🔗 www.bofit.fi/fi/seuranta/...

#Kiina #talous #BOFITViikkokatsaus

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

​BOFIT Viikkokatsaus 48/2025
Sähkön osuus maailman energiankulutuksessa kasvaa, öljynkulutus voi kääntyä laskuun ennen vuotta 2035

Lue lisää 🔗 www.bofit.fi/fi/seuranta/...

#Kiina #talous #BOFITViikkokatsaus
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Several regions of Russia have suspended payments to families of those killed in the war against Ukraine⤵️.

📹: Radio Liberty
It is not normal for a U.S. envoy to coach the Kremlin on how to influence an American president, especially in a way that undercuts Ukrainian and American national interests. As I told @NPR's Morning Edition.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2025 by Michael Alexeev, William Pyle and Jiaan Wang: Russian society, democratic values, and the legacy of the early-1990s economic shock

Read more 🔗 publications.bof.fi/handle/10024...

@suomenpankki.fi

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

What folks need to realize about "peace talks" is that this is all theater for Washington. Ukraine knows that Russia has no intention of stopping the war, and the Russians know the Ukrainians know that. So this is just all a performance for Trump, hoping he blames the other for the lack of peace.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Vice-President Luis de Guindos: Financial Stability Review November 2025 (slides) link.europa.eu/X88pkX