Nicolai von Ondarza
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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
15K followers 1K following 3.3K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13d
Who is really “running” the European Parliament right now?

On the margins of the geopolitical changes, the shifts in the EU are also accelerating. In my newest EU-Analytics, I dug into all final votes from December 2025 – and the shift of power to the centre-right & far right is accelerating:
EU Analytics December 2025 review
The change of guards at the European Parliament is picking up speed
open.substack.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 4h
Note that there are also rumours of a French EPP member defecting to RN/Patriots for Europe:
EXCLUSIVE: EPP lawmaker Castillo set to join far-right Patriots | Euractiv
Castillo’s defection would reduce the French delegation within the EPP to just five MEPs
www.euractiv.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 4h
EPP adopts stricter rules for voting against the von der Leyen Commission.

This will be tricky for French EPP members of the EP - who voted for the last motion of censure against the von der Leyen Commission and will be even more tempted to do so over the 'Patriots for Europe' motion on Mercosur.
Manfred Weber seeks to regain control of EPP rebels after far-right defection | Euractiv
New internal rules come after several of the group's members voted last October in favour of a far-right motion to bring down the European Commission
www.euractiv.com

Reposted by Steve Peers

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h
As expected. Though the phrasing in the BBC article that this is an escalation from the EU side is misleading, when the US is the one which has announced additional tariffs on EU member states

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

stluedke.bsky.social
Steffen Lüdke @stluedke.bsky.social · 5h
Scoop at @spiegel.de - German position regarding the Anti-Coercion Instrument as of Sunday:

„We must stay firm against the US threats. This will also include thinking about our trade policy instruments, i.e. (…) applying the first step of our Anti-Coercion-Instrument as ultima ratio.“

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

andreasrinke.bsky.social
Andreas Rinke @andreasrinke.bsky.social · 6h
Geopolitische Druck ändert deutsche Europa-Politik: Entscheidungen sind wichtig als Einheit, neue Formate der Abstimmung, mehr Erklärungen/Entscheidungen zu 24 oder 26 (statt 27) @huettemann.eu @nvondarza.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social 🇩🇪 🇪🇺
MSN
nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social
Jakub Jaraczewski @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social · 6h
Seems like Nawrocki, despite having lawyers and foreign policy experts aplenty in his office, is urgently seeking legal advice from the government on the matter. It seems like we're witnessing the first hard limit of the imperial presidency.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7h
Very much required reading for Europeans also to think through their place in the world - both on how much the world is changing, but also on how a shift in strategy means that countries other than the three empires (US, China, lesser extent Russia) are not powerless:

Reposted by John Mullahy, James Cameron, Nicolai von Ondarza

tbenner.bsky.social
Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 7h
Here is the full text of Carney's speech. Very much worth reading.

paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Jussi T. Eronen, Nicolai von Ondarza

tbenner.bsky.social
Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 7h
By far the best speech on what the present moment means for middle powers and what it means to stop “living within a lie”.
An inspiration for what Europeans should do.

Reposted by Daniela Gabor, Matthew Bunn, Kevin O’Rourke , and 20 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 7h
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mark-carney.bsky.social
Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 8h
Good to see President Macron in Davos today.
 
Canada and France will always stand together for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and peace.

Reposted by Magda Teter, Nicolai von Ondarza

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 9h
Also it's important to NOT think of this as a direct move *by the Danish government*. The pension's board has a Ministry of Finance member, but 9/10 are non-government. This is an independent move undertaken by non-government actors, not a diplomatic decision.

akademikerpension.dk/om-os/bestyr...
Bestyrelsesmedlemmerne - AkademikerPension
Læs om medlemmerne af AkademikerPensions bestyrelse
akademikerpension.dk

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mikesenters.bsky.social
Michael Senters the Sigillite, ABD. (Yang Wen-li stan) @mikesenters.bsky.social · 9h
I’m gonna be that guy that says that I think some people on this site are working themselves up into a doomer spiral over Greenland while others aren’t taking the escalation of rhetoric and the longevity of said rhetoric seriously enough.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 9h
It is also a phrase that has been overused at think tank and policy events for the last 2-3 years, even heard a UK Conservative MP using it. De Wever / his speech writer might have just heard it within the Brussels bubble without reading Gramsci

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings, Steve Peers , and 9 more

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 9h
*DANISH PENSION FUND AKADEMIKERPENSION TO EXIT US TREASURIES

Reposted by Steve Peers, Tom Griffin, Nicolai von Ondarza

michielvanhulten.eu
Michiel van Hulten @michielvanhulten.eu · 10h
7 out of 26 of Geert Wilders' far-right PVV party have just quit his parliamentary group, complaining about a lack of internal democracy (Wilders is the PVV's only party member). They alos say the party has achieved too little for its voters. nos.nl/artikel/2598...
Opstand in de PVV tegen Wilders' aanpak: deel fractie vertrekt
Zij hebben zich in een fractievergadering uitgesproken tegen de koers en het beleid van de partijleider.
nos.nl

Reposted by Steve Peers, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
In European politics, De Wever is the party ally of Meloni in the European Conservatives and Reformers, traditionally a very pro-atlanticist and (soft) Eurosceptic block:
nemzes.net Nelson Menezes 🇪🇺 💙💛 @nemzes.net · 10h
There's @deweverbart.bsky.social dishing it out. Good to have this voiced very clearly.
Trump 'crossing red lines' and 80 years of atlanticism could be drawing to close if he doesn't change tack, Belgian PM says Belgium’s Bart De Wever is up next, as he gets asked about the relations with the US and Trump’s behaviour. He doesn’t mince his words at all. He says that “Europe is at a crossroads” and it has to decide what it’s policy will be. He continues: “Until now, we tried to appease the new president in the White House. We were very lenient, also with the tariffs. We were lenient hoping to get his support for the Ukraine war. … But now so many red lines are being crossed that you have the choice between your self-respect. Being a happy vassal is one thing. Being a miserable slave is something else. If you back down now you’re going to lose your dignity. And that’s probably the most precious thing you can have in a democracy.” He says he will meet with Trump on Wednesday, accompanied by the Belgian monarch Philippe. “But it will have a different character than we had planned. It will probably be the message that we have to send: you’re crossing red lines here. We either stand together or we will stand divided, and if we are divided, there is the end of an era, of 80 years of atlanticism, really drawing to a close. And you know, as Gramsci said, ‘if the old is dying and the new is not yet born, you live in a time of monsters,’ and it’s up to him to decide if he wants to be a monster – yes or no.”

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
Given the US stance towards its allies, Canada might even be expected to think through such unthinkable scenarios.

From a European perspective, it underlines how much more urgent it is to think through how to defend the EU/European NATO without the US, however difficult the questions are. /ends

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
There is also an EU/European angle, with the hope that Europeans and other traditional allies such as Japan would help Canada. I personally think it would be a hard call, but for now remains firmly in the 'unthinkable' category for Europeans.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
The article goes on to state that the thinking would focus on guerilla tactics, akin to tactics used in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union and against the US and its allies - one of which was of course Canada, which heavily supported the US there.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
Now, these sound like early models and not an operational plan, but that there is a serious discussion amongst Canadian military about a US invasion is grave. From a 'will never happen' to an unlikely scenario is telling enough.

Reposted by Jonathan Hopkin, Ben Tonra

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 10h
There are times the fundamentals of world politics change to an extent hard to grasp. Here is an article from reputable Canadian media about Canadian military modelling to defend against an US invasion. Yes, you read that right.
Military models Canadian response to hypothetical American invasion
Armed Forces envision insurgency tactics like those used by Afghan mujahedeen, sources say. But officials and experts stress a U.S. operation is unlikely, and the scenarios are conceptual
www.theglobeandmail.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

nemzes.net
Nelson Menezes 🇪🇺 💙💛 @nemzes.net · 10h
There's @deweverbart.bsky.social dishing it out. Good to have this voiced very clearly.
Trump 'crossing red lines' and 80 years of atlanticism could be drawing to close if he doesn't change tack, Belgian PM says Belgium’s Bart De Wever is up next, as he gets asked about the relations with the US and Trump’s behaviour. He doesn’t mince his words at all. He says that “Europe is at a crossroads” and it has to decide what it’s policy will be. He continues: “Until now, we tried to appease the new president in the White House. We were very lenient, also with the tariffs. We were lenient hoping to get his support for the Ukraine war. … But now so many red lines are being crossed that you have the choice between your self-respect. Being a happy vassal is one thing. Being a miserable slave is something else. If you back down now you’re going to lose your dignity. And that’s probably the most precious thing you can have in a democracy.” He says he will meet with Trump on Wednesday, accompanied by the Belgian monarch Philippe. “But it will have a different character than we had planned. It will probably be the message that we have to send: you’re crossing red lines here. We either stand together or we will stand divided, and if we are divided, there is the end of an era, of 80 years of atlanticism, really drawing to a close. And you know, as Gramsci said, ‘if the old is dying and the new is not yet born, you live in a time of monsters,’ and it’s up to him to decide if he wants to be a monster – yes or no.”

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

press.europarl.europa.eu
EP Press Service @press.europarl.europa.eu · 10h
🗳️ Parliament to fast-track support loan for Ukraine

Following the decision to apply its so-called “urgency procedure”, MEPs will vote on a proposal for a €90 billion support loan to Ukraine at an upcoming plenary session.

Details ⤵️
www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
Parliament to fast-track support loan for Ukraine | News | European Parliament
Following the decision to apply its so-called “urgency procedure”, MEPs will vote on a proposal for a €90 billion support loan to Ukraine at an upcoming plenary session.
www.europarl.europa.eu

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 11h
What will bring this into special attention is that Ireland also will take over the EU's Council Presidency in the second half of 2026, where issues will dominate that are difficult for the Irish government.

Reposted by Glen O’Hara

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 11h
Ireland is in one of the more uncomfortable positions in the EU-US power struggle. It has an important role as host of many US tech companies in Europe, would be strongly affected by divergent EU/UK trade relations vis-a-vis the US and is uncomfortable with too deep EU defence integration.

Reposted by Glen O’Hara, Nicolai von Ondarza

independent.ie
Irish Independent @independent.ie · 11h
Ireland has played an effective global game between the US and EU, but the rulebook is now being torn up www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
Ireland has played an effective global game between the US and EU, but the rulebook is now being torn up
Among the less-consequential moves being talked about in response to Donald Trump’s threats to take Greenland is a European-wide boycott of the 2026 Fifa World Cup.
buff.ly

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mijrahman.bsky.social
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 11h
🇩🇰🇬🇱🇪🇺🇺🇸 There is no way for the US to acquire sovereignty over Greenland other than through a military intervention

Because all the other pathways require Greenland's support - by parliament and the public through referenda - which the US simply isn't going to get

Reposted by Glen O’Hara, Nicolai von Ondarza

paulvandermeer.bsky.social
Paul van der Meer @paulvandermeer.bsky.social · 11h
BREAKING
Canadian PM Mark Carney: "The future of Greenland is a decision for Greenland and for the Kingdom of Denmark. We are NATO partners with Denmark and so our obligations on Article 5, Article 2 of NATO stand and we stand four-square behind those."

Canada will defend Greenland.

Reposted by Georg Weizsäcker, Nicolai von Ondarza

jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social
Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 11h
In Davos, Ursula von der Leyen pitches an independent Europe open to the world as a response to Donald Trump's expanionist foreign policy.

"Geopolitical shocks can – and must – serve as an opportunity for Europe," she said.

I recap her speech.
Von der Leyen pitches 'European independence' versus Trump's worldview
As Donald Trump promotes his expansionist foreign policy, upending the transatlantic alliance along the way, Ursula von der Leyen called on Europe to seize the moment and achieve greater independence....
www.euronews.com