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Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 970 following 2.7K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19d

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 19d

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

HowTheyVote.eu @howtheyvote.eu · 22h

In July, Italian ECR MEPs did not vote on the censure, although they were present. This time, they abstained from the right-wing motion and voted against the left one.

What I wonder - might this indicate insecurity of the outcome of the vote? Abstaining increases the 2/3 of votes cast threshold.

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Reposted by Håvard Kauserud, Michal Onderčo, Nicolai von Ondarza

Jonas Algers @jonasalgers.bsky.social · 23h

Norway are facing Israel in the Football World Cup qualifiers today

The Oslo Tram Driver’s Union will be striking on the tram lines to the stadium in solidarity with the people of Palestine

www.nrk.no/stor-oslo/va...

Varsler kollektiv-streik i Oslo før Norge-Israel

Oslo Sporveiers Arbeiderforening varsler streik 11. oktober, samme dag som Israel og Norge spiller landskamp i fotball på Ullevaal Stadion. Hensikten er å vise støtte til Palestina. Én time før kampst...

www.nrk.no

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Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Nicolai von Ondarza

Aslak Berg @aslak.bsky.social · 1d

France right now is further proof of my longstanding theory that Italy from the 90's onward was the forerunner for modern politics and the template every other country is emulating, each with its own unique twist and on its own schedule.

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Reposted by Holger Nehring, Nicolai von Ondarza

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Lecornu re-named Prime Minister by Macron. His challenge will be to get a budget passed by end December. Composition of the Lecornu 2 cabinet will emerge by Monday but will be quite different from Lecornu 1 and its brief 13h56 lifetime . Macron says he's giving Lecornu carte blanche. We'll see

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Sophie Pedder @sophiepedder.bsky.social · 1d

France’s new prime minister is…the very one who resigned on Monday, Sébastien Lecornu. It rounds off the most chaotic and absurdist week in French politics in modern times

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1d

This is honestly incredible, no notes.

$Macron Renames Sebastien Lecornu as France's New Prime Minister By Samy Adghirni and William Horobin 10/10/2025 21:02:26 [BN] (Bloomberg) -- President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sebastien Lecornu to be France's prime minister, giving the centrist ally another shot at naming a new cabinet and getting a budget through a fractious parliament. Lecornu must propose a 2026 budget on Monday in order to get the legislation adopted by the end of the year through the normal process. Otherwise the National Assembly may need to pass an emergency bill to keep the government funded. The reappointment is a last-gasp attempt to find political balance to prevent the next government from collapsing, which would likely make snap elections unavoidable and usher in a new period of political instability.$

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 1d

👀Total blackout in Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian propaganda media: not a single word about our investigation uncovering Hungary’s spy network in Brussels — nor about the EU’s internal probe and the scrutiny over Orbán loyalist EU Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi's role. How strange!

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Julien Hoez @julienhoez.eu · 1d

According to several sources, Gerald Darmanin is likely to be the Prime Minister nomination that Macron will make tonight.

I fully expect a Darmanin government to collapse completely.

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Reposted by Robert C. Richards, Jacob T. Levy, Michael H. Whitworth , and 4 more Robert C. Richards, Jacob T. Levy, Michael H. Whitworth, Judith Beyer, Ann Bartow, Klaus Oschema, Nicolai von Ondarza

Lauren MacIvor Thompson @lmacthompson1.bsky.social · 1d

I am writing this because it has swiftly become crystal clear to me that many people have no idea what is happening or how this works. Here is a thread for non-academics to put into context what just happened to Dr. Mark Bray, a fellow historian.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Jaap Burger @jaapburger.eu · 1d

Why is the share of EVs among delivery vehicles and light trucks in the Netherlands skyrocketing? Cities.

theicct.org/zez-netherla...

Battery electric share of registrations of new trucks between 3.5 and 12t. Netherlands reaching 75% share in H1 2025.

Battery electric share of registrations of new light commercial vehicles (vans) up to 3.5 t. Netherlands reaching 80% share in H1 2025.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Though I think it is fair to argue that Macrons greatest weakness in European affairs has been his inability to form a strong, lasting coalition of countries as much as he failed to form a stable, lasting coalition of forces in France.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Branding age verification and ID cards as 'dystopian' while relocating to and writing from a country that ranks in global bottom third on Internet Freedom, let alone overall human rights, is next level self dillusion.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ben Stanley @benstanley.eu · 1d

Truly we live in the most Trump-brained timeline. Maybe, just maybe the Nobel Prize committee gave María Corina Machado the peace prize on her own merits, rather than so as not to give Trump the award while making it impossible for him to criticise their choice.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting statement on the shadow fleet by an interesting group of countries from G7 and the Nordic-Baltic 8++: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Statement: Shadow Fleet Task Force

On October 8, 2025, Canada and Denmark convened a meeting of the Shadow Fleet Task Force.

vm.ee

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Franz C. Mayer @mayerprof.bsky.social · 1d

Yep.
Jeder einzelne Satz der Begründung ist eine Backpfeife für Donald Trump. Bedeutung von Demokratie als Vorbedingung für Frieden, gegen Wahlfälschung etc. Das ist kein Zufall sondern eine Message. Sehr gut.

Frau Büüsker @uedio.bsky.social · 1d

Friedensnobelpreis für eine Frau aus Venezuela, die für Freiheit, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Menschenrechte kämpft.
Besser kannste Trump nicht trollen.
Gratulation, María Corina Machado.

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Reposted by Franz C. Mayer, Nicolai von Ondarza

Frau Büüsker @uedio.bsky.social · 1d

Friedensnobelpreis für eine Frau aus Venezuela, die für Freiheit, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Menschenrechte kämpft.
Besser kannste Trump nicht trollen.
Gratulation, María Corina Machado.

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Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde , and 51 more Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Guntram B. Wolff, Christian Odendahl, Richard S.J. Tol, Colin F. Camerer, Robbert Sanderman, David Brady, Gabriel Felbermayr, Steven Van de Walle, Tomasz Mickiewicz, Alistair Munro, Michael A. Clemens, Cyrus Samii, Lucas Leemann, Francesco Saraceno, Laia Balcells, Andrew Curry, Paul Lehmann, Guy Grossman, John Mullahy, Joshua Goodman, David Dorn, Ingo Rohlfing, Daniel W. Drezner, Iikka Korhonen, Robert C. Richards, Aaron Sojourner, Daniel Huppmann, Julia Lynch, Rita Hamad, Stephen D. Murphy, Nazita Lajevardi, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Miguel Á. Malo, Henry Farrell, Dean Eckles, Maria Abreu, Dana R. Fisher, Jason Lyall, Brian Weatherson, Brooke Harrington, Bård Harstad, Christina Pagel, Jürgen Janger, Nicolai von Ondarza, Karsten Mäuse, Dietmar Fehr, Bartosz Bartkowski, Adam Tooze, Anita Gohdes

Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · 1d

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Diego Velazquez @diegoinbxl.bsky.social · 1d

I agree, but the perception that the EU is German lead and defends most and foremost German interests (On Israel, budgetary constraints, defence, the euro, free trade etc.), is a very old and widespread one - and a German Commission president is a very obvious target for these traditional grievances

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Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 1d

"Brussels-bashing" is becoming fashionable again.

With Friedrich Merz sounding like a revenant Boris Johnson, fights over the long-term budget and unhappiness at EU-US trade, it's open season on Brussels.

My Charlemagne on the return of an old European scourge

www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame

Why bashing the EU is likely to become ever more popular

www.economist.com

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 2d

I'm not a comms expert, but I would strongly suggest those campaigning against the UK's withdrawal from the ECHR do not call themselves - or allow themselves to be called - 'Remain.'

Do British people want to leave the ECHR? What a decade of polls reveals

In the most recent YouGov poll on this issue, 54% of Conservative voters and 72% of Reform voters were in favour of leaving.

theconversation.com

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

Taken together, I am seeing a French political class which is not only uploading its internal political crisis to the EU level, but also transposing its anger at Macron to an anger at the EU level pro-European centre.

Not a good combination.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

-> Did these votes only come from the far-right and far-left?

No, even all the EPP parliamentarians from France either voted for the motion of censure (the only ones in the EPP) or abstained.

Only Renew voted overwhelming with von der Leyen, and even they had abstentions.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

-> Although von der Leyen and her Commission easily won the vote, if you look at the country level, French MEPs in majority voted in favour.

This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu

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Reposted by Catherine E. De Vries

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

Looking back at yesterday's motions of censure against the EU Commission, they really drove down how France's political crisis is spilling over into the EU:

-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

Occasionally stuff that you can do now with AI hits me, outside of all the slop.

Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 2d

🚨 BREAKING: The European Commission will probe reports that Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán's spies targeted EU officials in Brussels.

Read the developing story: ow.ly/vSbA50X93ss

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

And yes, I still do miss the twitter of that time that had the political spectrum across the board and was not yet taken over fully by tech bros and the radicals.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

This was in 2019, so he is an 8y old by now 😱

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

I posted a joke about my then 2y old running around the house screaming 'order' because I watched so much House of Commons debates during Brexit.

Have it on authority that this was shown to Speaker John Bercow by an MP and isn't it great that we can have these kinds of silly connections sometimes?

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 4d

Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?

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Reposted by Kori Schake

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

On this, from a recent IISS analysis:

"Russia’s summer offensive has failed at enormous cost in troops. Its diplomatic strategy for America has fallen short. It faces a slow tsunami of European defence spending (...)
In short, time may no longer be on Russia’s side."

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org

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