Nicolai von Ondarza
nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

Political science 80%
Economics 10%
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Who is really “running” the European Parliament right now?

On the margins of the geopolitical changes, the shifts in the EU are also accelerating. In my newest EU-Analytics, I dug into all final votes from December 2025 – and the shift of power to the centre-right & far right is accelerating:
EU Analytics December 2025 review
The change of guards at the European Parliament is picking up speed
open.substack.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

There are times the fundamentals of world politics change to an extent hard to grasp. Here is an article from reputable Canadian media about Canadian military modelling to defend against an US invasion. Yes, you read that right.
Military models Canadian response to hypothetical American invasion
Armed Forces envision insurgency tactics like those used by Afghan mujahedeen, sources say. But officials and experts stress a U.S. operation is unlikely, and the scenarios are conceptual
www.theglobeandmail.com

Also a sign of the times - the European Parliament's plenary debate today is officially called "Greenland: the need for a united EU response to _US blackmail_ attempts".

A language usually reserved for Russia or China.
Today at 13.00
European Parliament will discuss territorial integrity and sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark and the need for a united EU response to US
blackmail attempts 🇬🇱 🇩🇰🇪🇺
Follow live www.europarl.europa.eu/plenary/en/h...
Agenda www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/docum...
Today at 13.00
European Parliament will discuss territorial integrity and sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark and the need for a united EU response to US
blackmail attempts 🇬🇱 🇩🇰🇪🇺
Follow live www.europarl.europa.eu/plenary/en/h...
Agenda www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/docum...
🚨 Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.

"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
This is an attitude some have been calling for. Ivan Krastev in Dec:

"The most important thing for Europe is to stop defending a status quo that does not exist any more. Instead of being preoccupied with what we are losing, we should try to seize the opportunities"

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
Open Questions | Political scientist Ivan Krastev on European vertigo in a post-American world
While melancholy Europe frets that the US and China will shape the future, middle powers are jostling for a place at the big table.
www.scmp.com

I am actually reminded of the Civilization computer games, some of which have a 'diplomatic victory' where you win if a kind of World Congress elects you 'World Leader'...
The British Isles (Ok, Britain AND Ireland) drawn using different numbers of polygons. Source: www.reddit.com/user/simonge...
Ankündigungen zum Misstrauensvotum gegen die Regierung :

Für Misstrauen: RN, LFI, Grüne
Voraussichtlich dafür: GDR, UDR

Enthaltung: PS

Voraussichtlich dagegen, mit Bauchschmerzen: Renaissance, Horizons, LIOT, MoDem, LR

Damit die Regierung hält, dürfen nicht mehr als 13 Abgeordnete ausscheren.

I only scanned the text, and frankly it seems bonkers to me, with the full frontal assault on the UN and everything being geared towards power for Trump as permanent chairman. Like an attempt to warp international relations around him to his financial benefit. But who knows these days?

Yes, von der Leyen was invited to joint, and the Commission has said that they will study the proposal and coordinate with the other Europeans. As far as I am aware, only Hungary has definitely said they will take the offer.
Trump has also turned on the Chagos Island deal that his team supported, claiming it as an excuse for his crazed threats on Greenland and humiliating Starmer the day after the PM’s emollient speech.

Can Downing Street can now accept that the supposed ‘Special Relationship’ is history?
Good diplomatic reasons for Europeans to try to appeal for calm and work it out behind the scenes with the US.

But just this morning Trump posted pictures of him putting the flag on Greenland, and presenting his conquests of Greenland and Canada to European leaders.

This is absurd in so many ways.
#BREAKING Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wine and Champagne over France's intentions to decline invitation to join his Board of Peace
@afp.com
No, that is not what FAZ is reporting. The article briefly mentions concerns about Russia's ambitions after a Ukraine settlement. It does not mention at all Norwegian intelligence findings.

I certainly don't exclude anything - but this is just irresponsible posting.

www.faz.net/podcasts/f-a...
#BREAKING Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wine and Champagne over France's intentions to decline invitation to join his Board of Peace
@afp.com
Brussels has drawn up detailed options for retaliation, officials said, but is holding back its strongest measure in the hope of a diplomat solution.

@hennavirkkunen.bsky.social told the FT the priority is engagement, but that "we have also tools at our disposal here."

www.ft.com/content/1ef9...
Denmark dispatches additional troops to Greenland as tensions rise
Donald Trump declines to rule out using force to seize control of Arctic island
www.ft.com

This speaks to the assumption of the US President getting his information from social media rather than official channels, where European governments were at pains to stress that deployment was to prepare NATO defence in the Arctic against China and Russia, not against the US.
Sky News is reporting that during his phone call with Keir Starmer on Sunday, Donald Trump admitted he may have been misinformed about the motivation for deploying European troops to Greenland.

However, he remains fixated on acquisition.
Sky News is reporting that during his phone call with Keir Starmer on Sunday, Donald Trump admitted he may have been misinformed about the motivation for deploying European troops to Greenland.

However, he remains fixated on acquisition.
Donald Trump has invited Polish President Nawrocki to join his new Board of Peace.

He is among dozens of world leaders, including Russia's Vladimir Putin, to receive an invitation.

Nawrocki's office says it will discuss the proposal with Washington before reaching a decision.
Trump invites Poland's President Nawrocki to join Board of Peace
notesfrompoland.com
🇫🇷❗️🇺🇸 Macron will decline Trump’s invitation to join his “Board of Peace, - Bloomberg

Interesting argument for a 'grown up' restrained answer from the UK towards Trump's recent tariffs.

My main counter is that these tariffs are coupled with a demand neither the UK nor the EU (force Denmark to cede Greenland) can entertain. Therefore escalation is likely to come from the US anyway.
FYI, I've blogged on Trump's Greenland antics... 🙄

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-should...
FYI, I've blogged on Trump's Greenland antics... 🙄

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/how-should...

This again now sounds closer to UK/Starmer, though with the clear signal EU will be willing to escalate if Trump does.

Though the statement is clear for the EU, I wonder whether it will not be read as weakness by Trump/US representatives.

New phrasing starting to form on European strategy vis-a-vis Trump's threats on Greenland:

EU and Europeans will try to hammer down that they are not interest in picking a fight, but holding firm on support for Greenland, with more tools (ACI, tariffs etc) at their disposal.
We have no interest to pick a fight, but we will hold our ground.

Europe has a slate of tools to protect its interests. (2/2)

Not my focus, but this is an interesting visualisation of plans for Trump's 'Board for Peace', which increasingly looks like an attempt to build a separate global structure to the UN:
My best effort at understanding Trump's Board of Peace and its constituent parts.

This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
We have no interest to pick a fight, but we will hold our ground.

Europe has a slate of tools to protect its interests. (2/2)
In case you missed it over the transatlantic news today: French government might use article 49.3 again to push through the budget for 2026 - with the risk that the government might fall (again). More after ministerial council at 16:00.

www.lemonde.fr/politique/li...
EN DIRECT, budget 2026 : 49.3 ou ordonnance ? Suivez le conseil des ministres et les dernières réactions
Le premier ministre, Sébastien Lecornu, fera savoir, lors d’un conseil des ministres lundi à partir de 16 heures, s’il a recours à l’article 49.3 de la Constitution pour faire adopter le budget de l’E...
www.lemonde.fr
US consumers bore 96% of the cost of the 2025 Trump tariffs.

Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.

www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institut
www.kielinstitut.de

Here is the short clip from Kay Gottschalk. Bardellas reaction is also on his X and instagram accounts.
x.com
NEW OPINION PIECE OUT NOW

Daniel Šitera and myself take a different look at the "deregulatory turn" in EU digital policy. Building on our academic research, we argue that the key enabling role of smaller EU states have been largely overlooked.

#digitalsovereignty

Link in first comment.