Nicolai von Ondarza
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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza
@nvondarza.bsky.social
13K followers 980 following 2.9K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22
As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:
manuelmueller.foederalist.eu Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22
Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.
The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe
Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not
www.swp-berlin.org

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h
🚨Two more instances of centre-right to far-right majority today in the EP:
howtheyvote.eu HowTheyVote.eu @howtheyvote.eu · 6h
We got the second day of substantive votes for this week 👀

❗Two more instances of the EPP building a majority with the (far-)right today.
A blue tinted picture of the European Parliaments plenary chamber in Straßbourg. Text overlay reads: Now available - European Parliament Vote Results. Bubble indicating "Wednesday, Nov 26th".

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

howtheyvote.eu
HowTheyVote.eu @howtheyvote.eu · 6h
We got the second day of substantive votes for this week 👀

❗Two more instances of the EPP building a majority with the (far-)right today.
A blue tinted picture of the European Parliaments plenary chamber in Straßbourg. Text overlay reads: Now available - European Parliament Vote Results. Bubble indicating "Wednesday, Nov 26th".

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

jeberle.bsky.social
Jakub Eberle @jeberle.bsky.social · 11h
Is lack of a common definition of #digitalsovereignty the core of EU's issues with projects like Gaia-X, per @politico.eu? Not really. Let's not obsess about definitions and pay attention to power relations behind them (as argued in an article we published recently). www.politico.eu/article/anat...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

joerglau.bsky.social
Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 12h
US- vs. Russia these days, it's no longer a superpower rivalry. It is not about differing values or ideologies ("democracy vs. autocracy").
It's dealmaking between an oligarchy built by ex-spies and an oligarchy run by real estate investors and tech bros.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

lydiawachs.bsky.social
Lydia Wachs @lydiawachs.bsky.social · 12h
📖Happy to have contributed a chapter on #Russia and incentives for #nuclear diplomacy to a new @springernature.com volume titled “Nuclear Negotiations,” edited by Isak Svensson and Ulrika Möller.

📘Highly recommend checking out the full volume!

🔗 link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h
Fully agree, the principle of limiting the size of the Ukrainian army as such is already a big encoranchment into its sovereignty, especially if it comes without corresponding limits for Russia.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

guardianheather.bsky.social
Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 15h
Full OBR doc is up here: Reeves must be FUMING obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 16h
This is also a wierd discussion for the Western European powersto have. At a limit of 800.000, Ukraine would still have bigger armed forces than France, Germany and the UK combined, and even not much less if you add in Italy and Spain.
andrewramsaygray.bsky.social Andrew Gray @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social · 16h
Worth looking closely at what European leaders say on Ukrainian army limits.

Von der Leyen today: "There can be no limitations on Ukraine's armed forces that would leave the country vulnerable to future attacks."

Not quite a flat 'no limts', leaves open for discussion how high a cap might be. 1/2

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

pascallth.bsky.social
Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 16h
Matches the sentiment in this German polling, with 66% saying Ukraine shouldn't accept the current terms of the deal

Only AfD voters are in favour

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

mkozlowska.bsky.social
Marta Kozłowska @mkozlowska.bsky.social · 16h
The Polish government annlunced that they will honour the ECJ ruling and implement recognition of same-sex marriages certificates from abroad.

Obviously, the PiS-supported president is very much against, but he has no say in the matter.

notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/26/p...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

andrewramsaygray.bsky.social
Andrew Gray @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social · 16h
Worth looking closely at what European leaders say on Ukrainian army limits.

Von der Leyen today: "There can be no limitations on Ukraine's armed forces that would leave the country vulnerable to future attacks."

Not quite a flat 'no limts', leaves open for discussion how high a cap might be. 1/2

Reposted by Jussi T. Eronen, Nicolai von Ondarza

sophiepedder.bsky.social
Sophie Pedder @sophiepedder.bsky.social · 18h
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
New poll suggests Jordan Bardella would win second round of 🇫🇷 presidential election against any other of four tested candidates ⬇️

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h
To be fair, the blame for this failure of the centre-right and centre-left falls on both sides - with the EPP more and more using this alternative, and the S&D (and to a lesser extent Renew) not stretching far for compromise.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h
Another day, same story in the European Parliament - talks between the centrists parties collapse, and the centre-right to far-right forms the majority, today expectedly on the deforestation regulation.

At least on the simplification/deregulation agenda, it now seems to be the de facto EP majority:

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

fjmurau.bsky.social
Nils Markwardt @fjmurau.bsky.social · 20h
Was man sich ja auch fragt: Kommt der Leak von Trump-Leuten, die die Ukraine nicht unter den Bus werfen wollen? Oder kommt er von Putin-Leuten, die Witkoff vorführen und einen Deal verhindern wollen. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Witkoff Discusses Ukraine Plans With Key Putin Aide: Transcript
The following is a transcript of an Oct. 14 phone call lasting just over 5 minutes between Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, and Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senio...
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

chathamhouse.org
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 20h
'There is no peace process. This is not negotiations over peace: it is the transmission of surrender demands from Russia with the active facilitation of the United States.'

Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Trump pressures Ukraine to accept peace deal: Early analysis from Chatham House experts
Chatham House analysts give their initial analysis after Zelenskyy was pressured by Trump to accept a White House plan to end the war with Russia.
www.chathamhouse.org

Reposted by François Heisbourg, Nicolai von Ondarza

fsteiner.bsky.social
Falk Steiner @fsteiner.bsky.social · 1d
This is just terrible: a US official advising the Russians how to play Trump.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Witkoff Discusses Ukraine Plans With Key Putin Aide: Transcript
The following is a transcript of an Oct. 14 phone call lasting just over 5 minutes between Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, and Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senio...
www.bloomberg.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Another pattern Germany shares currently with the UK - little democratic patience as Merz is already less popular than Scholz a few months into the government, just as Starmer was almost immediately amongst the most unpopular prime ministers.
de.whln.eu Deutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 1d
Sind Sie mit der bisherigen Arbeit von Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz zufrieden? | Umfrage Forsa/RTL, n-tv

Ja: 23% (-2)
Nein: 75% (+2)
Weiß nicht: 2%

Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 18. November 2025
#btw29

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

de.whln.eu
Deutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 1d
Sind Sie mit der bisherigen Arbeit von Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz zufrieden? | Umfrage Forsa/RTL, n-tv

Ja: 23% (-2)
Nein: 75% (+2)
Weiß nicht: 2%

Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 18. November 2025
#btw29

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Although there are certainly some Mercosur specificities to this story, another example of how unpredictable - and to some extend less controllable - the European Parliament is in this legislative period:
euractiv.com Euractiv @euractiv.com · 1d
EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary: A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal
EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary
A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal
dlvr.it

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

euractiv.com
Euractiv @euractiv.com · 1d
EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary: A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal
EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary
A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal
dlvr.it

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Currently, Bardella is winning the French Presidency in polls against all possible opponents. Though the election is still far off and no clear challenger from Macron's camp known, these type of polls already shape French/European politics.
afp.com Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d
🇫🇷 Présidentielle: Jordan Bardella serait élu président de la République si le scrutin avait lieu dimanche, l'emportant au second tour dans tous les cas de figure testés, selon un sondage Odoxa-Mascaret publié mardi et réalisé pour Public Sénat et la presse régionale ⤵️

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

afp.com
Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d
🇫🇷 Présidentielle: Jordan Bardella serait élu président de la République si le scrutin avait lieu dimanche, l'emportant au second tour dans tous les cas de figure testés, selon un sondage Odoxa-Mascaret publié mardi et réalisé pour Public Sénat et la presse régionale ⤵️

Reposted by Laurent Pech, Nicolai von Ondarza

eublogo.bsky.social
Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 1d
🗳️Again, a 2/3 majority backed the report condemning the Orbán government’s rule-of-law violations in the EP: 415 in favour, 193 against, 28 abstentions. As the abstentions aren’t counted in the tally, the 2/3 majority stands, just as it did 7 years ago with the @judithsargentini.bsky.social report

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

claesdevreese.bsky.social
Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 1d
Dutch public broadcaster NOS (finally) stops posting on X.

The disadvantages are seen as too big. The reach has dwindled.

In the category, 'better late than never': good choice.

over.nos.nl/nieuws/nos-p...
NOS plaatst vanaf vandaag geen nieuwsberichten meer op X - Over NOS
De NOS en Nieuwsuur (NOS/NTR) zijn gestopt met posten op X. Het platform past niet meer bij onze visie op...
over.nos.nl

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
two Polish men who married in another EU country and then would file for divorce. All sorts of legal and political questions in such a case.

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
Great to see. I remember a presentation from a great Polish colleague in a seminar on differentiated integration asking this very question a while back, whether and how Poland (which is not part of the enhanced cooperation on trans-European divorce law) would deal with, for example...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

spignal.bsky.social
Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 1d
Great map of European soil -- so many different things to pick up on.

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott , and 12 more

davekeating.substack.com
Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 1d
BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.

🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.

This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
www.reuters.com

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d
A little more movement there, and UK polling would have 5 parties at basically 20% (in England, with SNP and PC leading in Scotland/Wales). Absolute madness/lottery for a first past the post system.
electionmaps.uk Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 1d
Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.