Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 980 following 2.9K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1h

Though in Germany there is much attention on the 'Brandmauer' against the AfD, little attention is on this development in the EP.

But it will not be without consequences: The more the EPP works with the far-right in the EP, the harder it will be for CDU/CSU & SPD to maintain a united EU policy.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1h

The "firewall" in the EU Parliament effectively no longer exists.

Just this week we had several uses of the centre-right to far-right majority again. In our new op-ed for @zeit.de, Sophia Russack and I analyze this "Venezuela majority" and why the EP is becoming increasingly unpredictable:

DIE ZEIT @zeit.de · 17h

Im Europäischen Parlament stimmen die Konservativen mit rechts außen. Die Stabilität, auf der die Union basiert, wird so aufgegeben. Die politische Mitte zerlegt sich.

EVP: In der EU ist die Brandmauer bereits gefallen

Im Europäischen Parlament stimmen die Konservativen mit rechts außen. Die Stabilität, auf der die Union basiert, wird so aufgegeben. Die politische Mitte zerlegt sich.

www.zeit.de

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Louis Drounau @louisdrounau.eudemocracy.eu · 1h

In its 2026 budgetary plan, the APPF asked Parliament for an additional 8 staff, to account for the increase in #europeanparties and foundations and for its expanded tasks under the new regulation. The @europarl.europa.eu heard that call and granted 0 additional staff.
@appf-eu.eudemocracy.eu

In its 2026 budgetary plan, the APPF asked for an additional 8 staff, to account for the increase in #europeanparties and foundations and for its expanded tasks under the new regulation. The @europarl.europa.eu heard that call and granted 0 additional staff.
@appf-eu.eudemocracy.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2h

In a more serious note, as the UK model will likely also be applied to Canada and probably South Korea, such a flexible contribution based on actual participation sounds like the kind of flexibility the EU should embrace.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2h

As always in Brexit/EU-talks, negotiation by deadline requires drama, but it again looks like a solution on UK participation in SAFE will be found. Though risks remain if you always need to negotiate with a cliff edge in sight.

Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 3h

Media briefings on UK-EU finances ahead of this weekend's SAFE deadline

www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 3h

Media briefings on UK-EU finances ahead of this weekend's SAFE deadline

www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

DIE ZEIT @zeit.de · 17h

Im Europäischen Parlament stimmen die Konservativen mit rechts außen. Die Stabilität, auf der die Union basiert, wird so aufgegeben. Die politische Mitte zerlegt sich.

EVP: In der EU ist die Brandmauer bereits gefallen

Im Europäischen Parlament stimmen die Konservativen mit rechts außen. Die Stabilität, auf der die Union basiert, wird so aufgegeben. Die politische Mitte zerlegt sich.

www.zeit.de

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Pernille Rudlin @pernillerudlin.bsky.social · 18h

Seeing quite a bit of this recently - Europe benefitting from Japanese business "de-China-ing" - Mitsubishi Materials plans to a build smelter in Europe that will handle recycled circuit boards, an effort to shield itself from China-related supply disruptions. asia.nikkei.com/business/mat...

Mitsubishi Materials bets on recycling copper in Europe to curb China risk

Japanese company's smelting business suffers profit slump

asia.nikkei.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

Oh No! Eine Ära endet - dir alles Gute, nur der ARD wird etwas fehlen!

Reposted by Steve Peers, Holger Hestermeyer, Nicolai von Ondarza

Annette Dittert @annettedittert.bsky.social · 19h

So, my dear German followers...some News "in eigener Sache"!
Und bitte nicht schreien, 😚....ich bleibe in London !

Medienmagazin DWDL @dwdl.de · 20h

Annette Dittert war für die ARD als Korrespondentin in verschiedenen Ländern, über viele Jahre geprägt hat sie aber vor allem die Berichterstattung aus Großbritannien. Nun verabschiedet sie sich von der ARD, aber nicht aus London

London-Korrespondentin Annette Dittert sagt der ARD Goodbye

dlvr.it

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h

As my 13y old son recently said to me - 'Dad, were you really born in the 1980s? Damn, you're old' 😱

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Medienmagazin DWDL @dwdl.de · 20h

London-Korrespondentin Annette Dittert sagt der ARD Goodbye

dlvr.it

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

It is getting hard to track the advances of the far-right in the EP, they are coming so fast - here is the approval of a report by a 'Patriot for Europe' MEP on an EU institutional questions, the role of National Parliaments, getting a majority from the centre-right to the far-right:

Constitutional Affairs Committee @afco.europarl.europa.eu · 23h

📢Give national parliaments a stronger role in EU law-making, MEPs say

- Clearer definition & application of subsidiarity and proportionality
- Proposals for better involvement of national parliaments

ℹ️Read more: link.europa.eu/cvrKBR

📝Rapp: Marieke Ehlers (PfE 🇳🇱)

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Constitutional Affairs Committee @afco.europarl.europa.eu · 23h

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23h

I think it is also not clocked in that not all AI created images look shiny. Quite easy with the right prompts to make less shiny images, which sometimes look more convincing, like this one of the trech bros, a meeting that never happened:

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Also advertising. This took me less than a minute, and there are AI agents now where you can create influencer personas and spew out these kind of images with products in all kinds of environments etc.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 1d

The sanctioning of a French ICC judge is a reminder of how exposed Europe remains to U.S. technological and financial infrastructure. Dependence on American firms is a geopolitical vulnerability

#EU #US

www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

La vie de Nicolas Guillou, juge français de la CPI sous sanctions des Etats-Unis : « Vous êtes interdit bancaire sur une bonne partie de la planète »

Six juges et trois procureurs de la Cour pénale internationale ont été placés sous sanctions par l’administration Trump. Dans un entretien au « Monde », le magistrat raconte le poids de ces mesures su...

www.lemonde.fr

Reposted by Holger Nehring, Nicolai von Ondarza

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 1d

The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

🚨Two more instances of centre-right to far-right majority today in the EP:

HowTheyVote.eu @howtheyvote.eu · 1d

We got the second day of substantive votes for this week 👀

❗Two more instances of the EPP building a majority with the (far-)right today.

A blue tinted picture of the European Parliaments plenary chamber in Straßbourg. Text overlay reads: Now available - European Parliament Vote Results. Bubble indicating "Wednesday, Nov 26th".

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

HowTheyVote.eu @howtheyvote.eu · 1d

We got the second day of substantive votes for this week 👀

❗Two more instances of the EPP building a majority with the (far-)right today.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Jakub Eberle @jeberle.bsky.social · 1d

Is lack of a common definition of #digitalsovereignty the core of EU's issues with projects like Gaia-X, per @politico.eu? Not really. Let's not obsess about definitions and pay attention to power relations behind them (as argued in an article we published recently). www.politico.eu/article/anat...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 1d

US- vs. Russia these days, it's no longer a superpower rivalry. It is not about differing values or ideologies ("democracy vs. autocracy").
It's dealmaking between an oligarchy built by ex-spies and an oligarchy run by real estate investors and tech bros.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Lydia Wachs @lydiawachs.bsky.social · 1d

📖Happy to have contributed a chapter on #Russia and incentives for #nuclear diplomacy to a new @springernature.com volume titled “Nuclear Negotiations,” edited by Isak Svensson and Ulrika Möller.

📘Highly recommend checking out the full volume!

🔗 link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Fully agree, the principle of limiting the size of the Ukrainian army as such is already a big encoranchment into its sovereignty, especially if it comes without corresponding limits for Russia.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 1d

Full OBR doc is up here: Reeves must be FUMING obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

This is also a wierd discussion for the Western European powersto have. At a limit of 800.000, Ukraine would still have bigger armed forces than France, Germany and the UK combined, and even not much less if you add in Italy and Spain.

Andrew Gray @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social · 1d

Worth looking closely at what European leaders say on Ukrainian army limits.

Von der Leyen today: "There can be no limitations on Ukraine's armed forces that would leave the country vulnerable to future attacks."

Not quite a flat 'no limts', leaves open for discussion how high a cap might be. 1/2

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 1d

Matches the sentiment in this German polling, with 66% saying Ukraine shouldn't accept the current terms of the deal

Only AfD voters are in favour

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Marta Kozłowska @mkozlowska.bsky.social · 1d

The Polish government annlunced that they will honour the ECJ ruling and implement recognition of same-sex marriages certificates from abroad.

Obviously, the PiS-supported president is very much against, but he has no say in the matter.

notesfrompoland.com/2025/11/26/p...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Andrew Gray @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social · 1d

Reposted by Jussi T. Eronen, Nicolai von Ondarza

Sophie Pedder @sophiepedder.bsky.social · 2d

Don’t say you weren’t warned.
New poll suggests Jordan Bardella would win second round of 🇫🇷 presidential election against any other of four tested candidates ⬇️

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