Heather Stewart
@guardianheather.bsky.social
Economics editor at the Guardian. Former political editor, former Observer economics editor. Londoner, Mum.
[email protected]
[email protected]
This just makes me feel even worse for whichever poor lad/lass pressed the button...
This is mad.
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Senior Labour MP calls for UK’s fiscal watchdog chair Richard Hughes to ‘consider his position’
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
This just makes me feel even worse for whichever poor lad/lass pressed the button...
It seems a stretch to describe this as a “step” unless it’s off a diving board:
November 27, 2025 at 2:39 PM
It seems a stretch to describe this as a “step” unless it’s off a diving board:
Reposted by Heather Stewart
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
November 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
Reposted by Heather Stewart
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Reposted by Heather Stewart
i mean not to prejudge this, but the cyber expert is likely to say 'yeah you hit publish, mate'
OBR calls in cyber expert over botched release of Budget analysis
OBR calls in cyber expert over botched release of Budget analysis
Rachel Reeves's statement was thrown into chaos after journalists were able to access the document early.
www.bbc.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:25 AM
i mean not to prejudge this, but the cyber expert is likely to say 'yeah you hit publish, mate'
Reposted by Heather Stewart
this is one of the reasons not to do policy by poll or focus group
New net migration figures at 930am.
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
Net migration fell half a million to 344,000 in 2024 from 848k in 2023
56% of people think it went up last year
17% think stayed the same
14% think it went down
2025 figure to be lower again
16% expect that
38% think it will be up
31% about the same
November 27, 2025 at 10:56 AM
this is one of the reasons not to do policy by poll or focus group
Reposted by Heather Stewart
Emigration, at around 700,000 people a year, is now the highest since 2012. Which is what you should expect five years after a surge in inward migration.
November 27, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Emigration, at around 700,000 people a year, is now the highest since 2012. Which is what you should expect five years after a surge in inward migration.
Richard Hughes tells Res Foundation he will go, if leak inquiry means Reeves + Meg Hillier think he should: "If they both conclude...they no longer have confidence in me then of course I will resign, which is what you do when you're the chair of something called the Office of Budget Responsibility".
November 27, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Richard Hughes tells Res Foundation he will go, if leak inquiry means Reeves + Meg Hillier think he should: "If they both conclude...they no longer have confidence in me then of course I will resign, which is what you do when you're the chair of something called the Office of Budget Responsibility".
Reposted by Heather Stewart
Most of the public think net migration increased last year, when in fact numbers halved.
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Most of the public think net migration increased last year, when in fact numbers halved.
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Heather Stewart
Even after the mansion tax is applied, the owner of a £5m home in Westminster will pay proportionately less in property tax than the owner of a £210k Band B property in Sunderland.
November 26, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Even after the mansion tax is applied, the owner of a £5m home in Westminster will pay proportionately less in property tax than the owner of a £210k Band B property in Sunderland.
Good, strong argument from Reeves about abolishing the two-child limit - the policy doesn't work, even in its own terms, and "it's the kids who have paid the price". Scrapping it costs £3bn a year by 29-30.
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Good, strong argument from Reeves about abolishing the two-child limit - the policy doesn't work, even in its own terms, and "it's the kids who have paid the price". Scrapping it costs £3bn a year by 29-30.
Was always VERY sceptical about this: dropping the idea of an income tax rise was a political, not an economic decision.
Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.
November 26, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Was always VERY sceptical about this: dropping the idea of an income tax rise was a political, not an economic decision.
😬
There's an 'NVDIDA share price returns to fundamentals' scenario, and it's not great.
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
😬
Side point, but it can’t be said often enough that so much of today’s political debate is taken up with migration, when it is *plunging* 📉 (from OBR docs):
November 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Side point, but it can’t be said often enough that so much of today’s political debate is taken up with migration, when it is *plunging* 📉 (from OBR docs):
As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.
November 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.
Useful background to the gambling tax increase here:
Delighted to see the Chancellor has taken forward the recommendation from Gordon Brown, @smfthinktank.bsky.social and @ippr.org to increase taxes on gambling. We called for this hugely profitable industry to contribute to ending the two child limit for benefits
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Useful background to the gambling tax increase here:
Reposted by Heather Stewart
After all the fuss, the hit from the OBR forecast was £5.5bn - Chancellor would still be meeting her fiscal rules if it were just for that. Productivity downgrade offset by higher wages and inflation, as we anticipated.
November 26, 2025 at 12:53 PM
After all the fuss, the hit from the OBR forecast was £5.5bn - Chancellor would still be meeting her fiscal rules if it were just for that. Productivity downgrade offset by higher wages and inflation, as we anticipated.
The OBR’s quite sniffy about the chancellor’s efforts to restore the public finances:
November 26, 2025 at 12:53 PM
The OBR’s quite sniffy about the chancellor’s efforts to restore the public finances:
Reposted by Heather Stewart
If the OBR document is correct, this seems to be the energy bills package:
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
November 26, 2025 at 12:23 PM
If the OBR document is correct, this seems to be the energy bills package:
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
Reposted by Heather Stewart
Nus Ghani on fire (both in scolding the govt and fashion)
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Nus Ghani on fire (both in scolding the govt and fashion)
Full OBR doc is up here: Reeves must be FUMING obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
November 26, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Full OBR doc is up here: Reeves must be FUMING obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Extraordinary - Reuters newswire has published a load of detail on Rachel Reeves's budget and it's moving the markets - £26.1bn in tax rises by 2029-30; headroom against her fiscal rules more than doubled to £21.7bn.
November 26, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Extraordinary - Reuters newswire has published a load of detail on Rachel Reeves's budget and it's moving the markets - £26.1bn in tax rises by 2029-30; headroom against her fiscal rules more than doubled to £21.7bn.
Reposted by Heather Stewart
It’s Budget Day! The OBR publishes its latest outlook once the Chancellor has completed her statement in Parliament. My all-time favourite cartoon on the subject, by @mooseallain.bsky.social:
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
It’s Budget Day! The OBR publishes its latest outlook once the Chancellor has completed her statement in Parliament. My all-time favourite cartoon on the subject, by @mooseallain.bsky.social:
Reposted by Heather Stewart
Can’t wait for the Budget to be over and the government to stop leaking stories every five minutes and go back to its constitutionally defined role of starting weird fights with Wes Streeting.
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Can’t wait for the Budget to be over and the government to stop leaking stories every five minutes and go back to its constitutionally defined role of starting weird fights with Wes Streeting.
Reposted by Heather Stewart
beginning to believe I would actually vote for a dead pigeon on a stick if it just promised to restore the fuel duty escalator
November 25, 2025 at 4:40 PM
beginning to believe I would actually vote for a dead pigeon on a stick if it just promised to restore the fuel duty escalator