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Giles Wilkes

@gilesyb.bsky.social

19K followers 1.2K following 4.2K posts

Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Jul 15

In an effort that will no doubt torch my follower base, I have laid out some basic numbers around our fiscal situation. Obvious, but still a little sobering for me.

freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/07/15/t...

There really is no getting out of this fiscal corner

It is something of a cliche to argue that Britain is running out of money, living beyond its means, wandering through a fiscal fool’s paradise – but no less true for that. The trend of …

freethinkecon.wordpress.com

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: the chancellor will target more headroom against her fiscal rules in the 26 November Budget as a buffer against volatile bond markets - www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Rachel Reeves looks for extra headroom in budget to insulate UK economy against bond market

Chancellor hopes to raise enough funds to stop damaging speculation about breaching fiscal rules

www.theguardian.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12h

there appears to be no one at
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
The Economist capable of doing the maths on industrial strategy sufficient to understanding that it's utterly meaningless in the fiscal debate. It didn't matter if you like it or not, it's not the "bloat" you need to address the deficit

Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 12h

Agree with Giles here.

I’m not clear how much government policy is actually responsible for it, but consuming less to invest more is exactly what we need to do. It’s painful but necessary.

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

UK consumers curb spending more than anywhere else in G7 - on.ft.com/4oAIMIr

Ok, here's my optimistic take.

The UK faces no difficulty keeping demand growing. None. That's simply "not a thing", to use the phrase of the younger folk. It hasn't really been a thing since forever 1/

UK consumers curb spending more than anywhere else in G7

High interest rates and fear of economic shocks spur households to build up savings rather than splash out

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12h

We really need rain. Not least because what ensues after Skyla dips into this is revolting

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 13h

Supply side issues. Poor levels of investment, low dynamism, a sectoral mix that is far from ideal, weak skills, lowered access to European markets, take your pick

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

This is all part of a theme I wrote about in this post

"Against vibes-based economic prognosticating"– Freethinking Economist freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/02/28/a...

Anyway, enough now. Don't panic. The UK economy can grow without constant consumer exuberance. Maybe it actually needs to 5/5

Against vibes-based economic prognosticating

Here is how it goes. Let’s say it starts with the Government doing something bad, like raise a tax by £20bn, to fund a bunch of stuff. People don’t like tax, according to science, and s…

freethinkecon.wordpress.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

This is nonsense. We can always keep demand growing. (We don't always choose to adequately, perhaps, see 2010-20). What government policy can do is change its *composition*, to suit its social, economic and security goals. And I basically like what this one has done: more defence, investment, etc 4/

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

Or net imports improving, etc. Investment we definitely need more of.

My bottom line is that 80% of regular economic commentary and statistics relate to demand. This commentary acts like it's a constant worry, being able to treat demand growing. Oh noes! The shoppers aren't shopping!! 3/

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

In fact, keeping demand growing on track since 2021 has arguably been something we've overachieved at. Look at this chart and the red lines.

So what does it mean if consumers are not spending but saving more instead?

Well, that demand is coming from other sources. Which means investment 2/

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 14h

UK consumers curb spending more than anywhere else in G7

High interest rates and fear of economic shocks spur households to build up savings rather than splash out

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Born with Teeth is excellent, see it if you can

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

"From a peak share of 51 per cent of the UK’s new car market in 2012, diesel vehicles now account for only 3 per cent last year"

Astonishing progress

on.ft.com/47l1rlm

How many lives is this saving?

UK dieselgate motorists prepare to go to court against carmakers

Hundreds of thousands of claimants aim to prove that VW was not the only manufacturer cheating in emissions tests

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 1d

Living in the grey zone - on.ft.com/4h88pgX

"Perhaps it is truer to say that being comfortable with contradiction is the mark of high character, because it entails loneliness. There is never a team to join."

Living in the grey zone

Navigating the 21st century requires a talent for paradox

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Alongside cheese and music they are arguably the clearest proof of a benign entity behind all creation, or at least so the best philosophers say

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

It's unfair to suggest Skyla is spoiled, and perfectly normal to spend a few minutes stuffing beef trachea with dog food for freezing, and later use as a dog popsicle

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

"One study attributes 30-50% of American productivity gains between 1990 and 2010 to skilled migrants. When it shuts the door to mobile talent, America is giving up one of the main ingredients of its success."
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
From The Economist

Donald Trump’s fortress economy is starting to hurt America

The pain from trade and immigration restrictions cannot be postponed forever

www.economist.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

This podcast shares the consensus that Badenoch delivered a pretty good speech this week

pca.st/episode/95ca...

Is it too late for Kemi Badenoch?

pca.st

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 5d

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Let's face it, mobile capital goes to places with trade deficits

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

What bugs me about that article is the implicit premise in the title. FDI and growth are not equivalents, there isn't a zero sum game necessarily, but omg is that the impression that mobile capital likes to give

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Bad news: there’s more of it about - on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

There really isn't another paper in the same league as the Financial Times. Evidence in this free article

Bad news: there’s more of it about

More than 40 years of FT coverage, charted

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

Brilliant and depressing piece on how hard it is to transact property

on.ft.com/4nHDf2m

I know some people think housing policy is simple - just build more! And to do that just have less planning! - but most appreciate the more complex tangles in life.

Moving home is maddening — here’s how the system needs to change

A new government consultation promises to speed up the conveyancing process in England and Wales. But will it work?

on.ft.com

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d

"if anything employment outcomes are worsening more rapidly for those with fewer skills looking for blue-collar jobs than the highly skilled seeking knowledge work"

on.ft.com/43eYeRZ

@jburnmurdoch.ft.com as ever doing the essential work.

It's not just AI. And education still matters

What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong

People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Giles Wilkes

John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 3d

ME: Now Mom, just remember, there's a lot of disinformation and AI in your social feed and your friends' Facebook.
MOM: I know! My friend sent me this crazy post where someone used AI to make an image of a giant frog fighting Army troops!
ME: ... okay, no, that one's ... goddamit, Portland.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 3d

Look I know it couldn't work because I'm typing, I know

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