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Andrew Sissons

@acjsissons.bsky.social

7.4K followers 850 following 5.6K posts

Day job: climate change, heat pumps, energy at Nesta Other stuff: low-fi economics on growth, cities & economic geography, general UK policy, occasional basic charts Bristol, he/him, lots of parenting / caring. Personal account.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · Feb 14

New personal post: is net zero good or bad for growth?

This is a long post on a tricky topic, so this is a thread too.
I wrote it because people are making strong claims about net zero without really paying attention to the facts. And the facts keep changing

acjsissons.medium.com/is-net-zero-...

Is net zero good or bad for growth?

The underlying facts about net zero and growth keep changing. The proponents for each side, however, do not tend to change their minds…

acjsissons.medium.com

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

Definitely agree the skills aren't there atm, the argument is that you need to build them up (in local bodies and a national agency). That will take time of course.

We've actually argued for local heat bodies to be at CA / SA scale (a bit more detail here if of interest)

The case for local planning of energy and heat

Making the energy transition simpler and more attractive to households via localised plans, governing bodies and funding

www.nesta.org.uk

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

The heat pump subsidy in England and Wales - the Boiler Upgrade Scheme - works in this way, and has been pretty effective (though not perfect) as a subsidy.

This scandal is related to the ECO and GBIS schemes, which are much more complex sadly!

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

More state capacity wouldn’t solve these problems on its own, but alongside stronger, simpler regulatory policies, it would let the state actually get a grip on how these schemes - and the whole of clean heat - are being delivered.

Very much hoping to see this in the govt’s Warm Homes Plan v soon!

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

Our argument is that we need both local heat bodies and a national agency that both hire specialists in warm homes and clean heating. Bodies that are properly funded, can build up their capacity over time, and can act as delivery bodies for central government.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

What I think is needed is more state capacity and expertise to actually support delivery of these schemes. Both in local and national government.

We used to have, say, in-house engineers in local government to design and oversee programmes like this. That has largely disappeared

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

I also think there’s an inherent problem with trying to get private bodies (not ones v well suited to the job either) to deliver this work with only arms-length regulation.
DESNZ struggles to regulate this stuff, and over-specs, because it has so little capacity to actually see what’s going on

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

I agree with Adam (and Kate) here: a big source of the problem is government making the schemes way too complex, and in doing so losing the ability to actually control the outcomes.

Simplifying regulations, but strengthening them at the same time, is vital to put this right.
BUT…

Adam Bell @adambell.bsky.social · 1d

Secondly, I would like to take this quote and make it the background of every official in DESNZ. Trying to be too clever-clever never works. Trying to exclude all edge cases makes bad policy.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

There’s not much to say about the solid wall insulation failures that hasn’t already been said. A diabolical policy failure that wasted money and harmed people.

But one thing I will add is: I think it highlights the need for more state delivery capacity on warm homes, not just regulation
🧵

Almost all external insulation fitted under Tory scheme needs repair or replacing, report finds

Homeowners who took advantage of government programmes left with cladding likely to cause damp

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Andrew Sissons

James Winters @replicatedtypo.bsky.social · 1d

It was cool to see that Mokyr got the Nobel in economics. @antonhowes.bsky.social has a nice write up here: www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inv...

Age of Invention: Joel Mokyr's Nobel

A triumph for history and the importance of ideas

www.ageofinvention.xyz

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 1d

"Winter is coming, which means we're back to thinking about home heating."

Not sure how my colleague Max Woollard managed to get this past the @nestauk.bsky.social editorial team, but he did and his blog on how to make clean heat more affordable is great...

Affordability, energy prices and paying for clean heat

By reforming electricity levies and increasing renewable generation, we can decouple electricity from gas prices, reduce bills, and overcome upfront costs - making heat pumps a viable solution for mor...

www.nesta.org.uk

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 2d

Kind of want to know how you’re treating St Paul’s in this

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 2d

I think I’d go for a tour of Regional Development Agency project signs, ideally one curated by @aebaldwin.bsky.social.

Or Environment Agency flood defences

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

This is fair, but there is private investment as well, which can often make a difference more quickly

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

It’s the right plan, and I’m not convinced it would be that unpopular if: a) it was clearly, honestly explained; b) you had time before the next election for it to pay off

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

My only caveat is that I’m nervous about whether the labour market is softer than we realise (not helped by the problems with the labour force survey). It’s a very tricky job balancing demand atm.

But as Giles says, you can have adequate demand without it all being consumption

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 3d

Agree with Giles here.

I’m not clear how much government policy is actually responsible for it, but consuming less to invest more is exactly what we need to do. It’s painful but necessary.

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 3d

UK consumers curb spending more than anywhere else in G7 - on.ft.com/4oAIMIr

Ok, here's my optimistic take.

The UK faces no difficulty keeping demand growing. None. That's simply "not a thing", to use the phrase of the younger folk. It hasn't really been a thing since forever 1/

UK consumers curb spending more than anywhere else in G7

High interest rates and fear of economic shocks spur households to build up savings rather than splash out

on.ft.com

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

In summary: don’t move to Dubai, move to the Isle of Man

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

All too well!

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

I think “closest descendant of Bonnie Prince Charlie as the rightful monarch” probably fits this worldview pretty well

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

- Oh and did I mention how much they loved closing the borders and keeping the pubs open during the pandemic?

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Think that’s a bonus if you hold this particular worldview

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

- A very longstanding Parliament (Tynwald) that is a bit mythologised
- Strong fishing and smuggling heritage
- The capital (Douglas) is a slightly faded seaside town
- Not part of its main trade partner but retains benefits
- Landscape is a chunk of the Lake District with some flat bits tacked on

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

It’s wild now much the Isle of Man actually resembles a certain rose-tinted vision of what Britain should be:
- Low and flat taxes
- Lax regulations on finance and gambling, attracting offshore industries
- Not much health and safety - no fluoride in the water, some roads without speed limits

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 4d

I love how the Isle of Man - and actual Crown dependency a few miles off the coast - is completely ignored, while these guys fixate on petrostates thousands of miles away.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Tired: United Kingdom
Wired: Singapore-on-Thames
Inspired: Kingdom of Sodor and Man

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 4d

Not exactly authoritarian, but reckon the Isle of Man is a candidate. “Oldest Parliament” has a bit of the Magna Carta about it, a big libertarian streak and low and flat taxes

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