John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social
18K followers 1.7K following 5.1K posts
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
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johnspringford.bsky.social
'Posting to policy' works with some 'ban dangerous dog breeds' and 'attack your enemies' policies but not anything complicated, where meetings, emails and DMs are still the way to go.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Yes, I think that's right, and Jonn's view too.
johnspringford.bsky.social
That's 'self-righteous' I suppose, but even pragmatically there's no gain in being reasonable on a platform that *pays* users for extreme content.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Good piece. I use WhatsApp despite it being used to coordinate last year's violence against asylum-seekers, but algorithms weren't involved. That's the key difference.
johnspringford.bsky.social
No way! I love Parklife the song. And I was thinking about the album, which I still listen to a fair bit
Reposted by John Springford
oldtrotter.bsky.social
Free trade and laisser faire are not the same thing. Unfortunately, we’ve spent the last few decades assuming that they are, with consequences tgat are all too apparent on.ft.com/48YLOBs A bad bet on globalisation — and the new age of tech autocrats
A bad bet on globalisation — and the new age of tech autocrats
Bill Clinton emerges as something of a prophet in a book about a gamble on free trade, while Giuliano da Empoli offers a stark warning on the coming world order
on.ft.com
johnspringford.bsky.social
I liked both of them, but Blur were more important in liberating nerdy boys.
johnspringford.bsky.social
It felt like living in the future, and you'd go to sleep with sprites cascading across your eyeballs.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Those, minus Italia 90 and the Gulf War, but plus my neighbour getting a Sega Megadrive and the release of Parklife.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Exactly - a decision has to be made not to invest, aka working existing capital and not creating new capital, based on expectations of the future.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Gap yars for money-shufflers.
katie0martin.ft.com
Some people don't super love Dubai but they get offered good money for a good job and they go for a couple of years. Wouldn't be my choice but I get it.
But a lot of people have made "slagging off the UK and going on about Dubai" their entire personality and it's quite dull
johnspringford.bsky.social
Not sure - isn't that the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the US in Trump's first trade war - so the impact on GDP far smaller. Whereas a synthetic control on GDP captures more effects (and my/Born's range was 1.5-2.5% GDP shortfall)
johnspringford.bsky.social
We were pretty certain that Britain was going to leave the single market from May's conference speech! Hence what happened to investment ... and stop calling me Google
johnspringford.bsky.social
Exactly: if Brexit had been cancelled, there would have been a recovery in investment (if investors were convinced it was cancelled for good of course).
johnspringford.bsky.social
My reading of it is he's using my/Born et al pre-2020 doppelganger estimates. I never thought of those effects as uncertainty-driven - more the expectation of trade barriers reducing investment in UK assets, and sterling devaluation raising the cost of imports and putting off EU immigrants.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Share of wealth owned by the top decile?
Reposted by John Springford
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Conservative tech lord Thiel said tighter financial regulations “were a sign that a singular world government has begun to emerge that could be taken over by an Antichrist figure who could then use it to exert control over people.” Via WashPost
Inside billionaire Peter Thiel’s private lectures: Warnings of ‘the Antichrist’ and U.S. destruction
In leaked recordings of private lectures by tech billionaire Peter Thiel he argued that “the Antichrist” is likely to take the form of a critic of technology.
www.washingtonpost.com
Reposted by John Springford
Reposted by John Springford
dlknowles.bsky.social
By me this week - the happiest thing I've got to report of late, with a glorious trip over the summer to Montreal

"Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport."

www.economist.com/internationa...
Forget EVs. Cycling is revolutionising transport
Pedal power is booming, spinning up a new culture war
www.economist.com
johnspringford.bsky.social
I saw a video that made me laugh once.
johnspringford.bsky.social
How would a Reform or Conservative government use its powers if Britain withdrew from the ECHR? How would the EU, Ireland, Sinn Fein and so on react? Lawyers have their views, I have mine, I don't think theirs are more informed.
johnspringford.bsky.social
Again, the risks here are political, both domestically and internationally. Lawyers - especially politically motivated ones - aren't fonts of authority on that.
colinmurray.bsky.social
A pure example of BBC balance. On the one side, on the other, all the way through. This leaves a really superficial account of what's at issue with leaving the ECHR and accepts, doe-eyed, that Policy Exchange had a "really detailed proposal" on the GFA, not a hot mess:

share.google/qGXg9rHZYfPL...
Reposted by John Springford
dsquareddigest.bsky.social
Perhaps not the main point but I always hate it when people view it as a sign of failure when poorer countries grow faster. There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Poland should have lower income than the UK or any other EU country forever, and that means it will have to grow faster sometimes
adambienkov.bsky.social
"15 years ago, Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are," says Kemi Badenoch.

Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?
Reposted by John Springford
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them