Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
Pinned
Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Here is my starter pack on economics, trade and markets. Like others, my selection criterion was simple: these are minds I always learn from.
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
Ouch.
Brutal reality hitting slow EU rare earth policy rollout:
Commissioner Sejourne tells NRC: “I was due to travel to Brazil to hold talks about a mine extracting rare earths. 3 days before, we were told that the Americans had come by and bought up all production through to 2030.”
Brutal reality hitting slow EU rare earth policy rollout:
Commissioner Sejourne tells NRC: “I was due to travel to Brazil to hold talks about a mine extracting rare earths. 3 days before, we were told that the Americans had come by and bought up all production through to 2030.”
December 9, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Ouch.
Brutal reality hitting slow EU rare earth policy rollout:
Commissioner Sejourne tells NRC: “I was due to travel to Brazil to hold talks about a mine extracting rare earths. 3 days before, we were told that the Americans had come by and bought up all production through to 2030.”
Brutal reality hitting slow EU rare earth policy rollout:
Commissioner Sejourne tells NRC: “I was due to travel to Brazil to hold talks about a mine extracting rare earths. 3 days before, we were told that the Americans had come by and bought up all production through to 2030.”
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Very interesting walk-through of the impact of Trump on clean tech
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Between a rock and a hard place: Europe's clean tech industry is caught between Trump’s policies and Chinese pressure. #cleantech
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
December 9, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Very interesting walk-through of the impact of Trump on clean tech
Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel?
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵
Between a rock and a hard place: Europe's clean tech industry is caught between Trump’s policies and Chinese pressure. #cleantech
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
New policy brief by @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social.
Read here: buff.ly/mzBkqRa
December 9, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel?
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question.
By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
December 9, 2025 at 11:01 AM
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Oops...we did it again: We partnered with @delorsberlin.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to bring to you the freshest analysis where Europe's clean tech sector stands and what to do to keep it cutting-edge. 👇
New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social.
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:
December 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Oops...we did it again: We partnered with @delorsberlin.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to bring to you the freshest analysis where Europe's clean tech sector stands and what to do to keep it cutting-edge. 👇
Excellent reporting from the NYTs Bradsher.
“From the perspective of purchasing power parity, the exchange rate wouldn’t be 1 to 7, it might be 1 to 5 or even 1 to 4,”
Sheng Songcheng, a former senior Chinese central bank official, apparently said at a little noticed conference talk.
“From the perspective of purchasing power parity, the exchange rate wouldn’t be 1 to 7, it might be 1 to 5 or even 1 to 4,”
Sheng Songcheng, a former senior Chinese central bank official, apparently said at a little noticed conference talk.
Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion.
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports and Drawing Criticism
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Excellent reporting from the NYTs Bradsher.
“From the perspective of purchasing power parity, the exchange rate wouldn’t be 1 to 7, it might be 1 to 5 or even 1 to 4,”
Sheng Songcheng, a former senior Chinese central bank official, apparently said at a little noticed conference talk.
“From the perspective of purchasing power parity, the exchange rate wouldn’t be 1 to 7, it might be 1 to 5 or even 1 to 4,”
Sheng Songcheng, a former senior Chinese central bank official, apparently said at a little noticed conference talk.
I hope the German Chancellor catches up - a 1990s deregulation agenda isn’t going to cut it against a wildly undervalued Chinese exchange rate.
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion.
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports and Drawing Criticism
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:33 AM
I hope the German Chancellor catches up - a 1990s deregulation agenda isn’t going to cut it against a wildly undervalued Chinese exchange rate.
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
I think Europe should consider broader China tariffs - either to slow down the shock directly or as a tool to pressure China to revalue.
1/
Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion.
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports and Drawing Criticism
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion.
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year.
But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness!
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Macron this week proposed trading away export controls on European made semiconductor equipment.
Trump just weakened the US arguments against that.
Trump just weakened the US arguments against that.
December 8, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Macron this week proposed trading away export controls on European made semiconductor equipment.
Trump just weakened the US arguments against that.
Trump just weakened the US arguments against that.
Wild but not surprising.
December 8, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Wild but not surprising.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
« Merz a décidé de réengager l’Allemagne sur la scène européenne. Il a besoin de von der Leyen pour pousser à Bruxelles son agenda économique allemand », souligne @sandertordoir.bsky.social, économiste au @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, à Berlin.
Friedrich Merz, Ursula von der Leyen et Manfred Weber, le trio allemand qui impose son agenda à l’Europe
DÉCRYPTAGE - Rivaux historiques de la CDU-CSU allemande, le chancelier, la présidente de la Commission et le patron du PPE, premier parti européen, rebattent les cartes de l’agenda européen. Quitte à…
buff.ly
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
« Merz a décidé de réengager l’Allemagne sur la scène européenne. Il a besoin de von der Leyen pour pousser à Bruxelles son agenda économique allemand », souligne @sandertordoir.bsky.social, économiste au @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, à Berlin.
Ouch.
Jaw-dropping quote from Federica Mogherini, once the EU foreign-policy head
“Just imagine taking the entire EEAS [EU diplomatic service] away from the world for 24 hours... Probably most of the places in the world would collapse before the 24 hours.”
😂
www.euractiv.com/news/rapport...
“Just imagine taking the entire EEAS [EU diplomatic service] away from the world for 24 hours... Probably most of the places in the world would collapse before the 24 hours.”
😂
www.euractiv.com/news/rapport...
EU’s Trump strategy: Don’t engage | Euractiv
In Monday's edition: Mogherini’s ‘weird’ grant, E3 meets, Hamas questions, migration, budget brawl
www.euractiv.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Ouch.
That's very interesting Sebastian, and good to hear!
Germany is already en route to adjusting its policies, so I think some optimisim is justified.
Germany is already en route to adjusting its policies, so I think some optimisim is justified.
We at the @imkinstitut.bsky.social are also rather optimistic for Germany.
What I observed in the last deep crisis in 2002-5: Non-Germans were more rational when judging the German economy. They might be less prone to collective story-telling.
What I observed in the last deep crisis in 2002-5: Non-Germans were more rational when judging the German economy. They might be less prone to collective story-telling.
December 7, 2025 at 10:14 PM
That's very interesting Sebastian, and good to hear!
Germany is already en route to adjusting its policies, so I think some optimisim is justified.
Germany is already en route to adjusting its policies, so I think some optimisim is justified.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Draghi's big recommendations are massive investment (basically via EU joint bonds), deepening of the single market and some simplification/deregulation.
The first two are political minefields. The other one involves mildly annoying Ribera and seemingly nobody else. No wonder it's the focus.
The first two are political minefields. The other one involves mildly annoying Ribera and seemingly nobody else. No wonder it's the focus.
December 7, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Draghi's big recommendations are massive investment (basically via EU joint bonds), deepening of the single market and some simplification/deregulation.
The first two are political minefields. The other one involves mildly annoying Ribera and seemingly nobody else. No wonder it's the focus.
The first two are political minefields. The other one involves mildly annoying Ribera and seemingly nobody else. No wonder it's the focus.
I genuinely remain a bit baffled that pockets of the Dutch debate - NL being a pretty rich country - obsess Argentina as the beacon and the hill and seem to know nothing about the IMF and US treasury bailout happening there.
Cutting red tape is fine, but the Commission and Chancellor Merz sink way too much political capital into the ‘simplification’ sideshow.
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
December 7, 2025 at 5:08 PM
I genuinely remain a bit baffled that pockets of the Dutch debate - NL being a pretty rich country - obsess Argentina as the beacon and the hill and seem to know nothing about the IMF and US treasury bailout happening there.
For those who believe in evidence-based policy-making rather than vibes-based:
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
December 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
For those who believe in evidence-based policy-making rather than vibes-based:
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
I have long thought the EU simplification fervour was a side show.
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
December 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
I have long thought the EU simplification fervour was a side show.
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Indeed very much agree Angel.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
+1 You can see how Europe is getting incrementally defensive, slowly but surely, and the direction of travel is only one way, up. Not a controversial forecast to make at this point by any means, but people not paying attention may be underestimating how quickly the sense of urgency is building.
December 7, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Indeed very much agree Angel.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
“The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP,” said @SanderTordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
December 7, 2025 at 8:07 AM
“The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP,” said @SanderTordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
December 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
December 6, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
As more voices in the EU clamour for broader China tariffs, a development Beijing surely wishes to avoid, the EU could ask it:
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
December 6, 2025 at 11:13 AM
As more voices in the EU clamour for broader China tariffs, a development Beijing surely wishes to avoid, the EU could ask it:
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Der Spiegel obtained notes from a confidential phone call. Merz warned Americans are "playing games with Russia," Macron called a US deal "a great danger," Stubb said, "We must not leave Ukraine alone to face these people," and Rutte insisted, "We must protect Volodymyr."
December 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Der Spiegel obtained notes from a confidential phone call. Merz warned Americans are "playing games with Russia," Macron called a US deal "a great danger," Stubb said, "We must not leave Ukraine alone to face these people," and Rutte insisted, "We must protect Volodymyr."
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
December 5, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Always a pleasure to attend the terrific Pariser Platz conference.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
After a coffee break - this time with thematically fitting croissants- we continue with our Round Tables. Upstairs, @matellysy.bsky.social hosts a discussion on the European defence industry with Ester Sabatino, @gregclaeys.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social.
December 5, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Always a pleasure to attend the terrific Pariser Platz conference.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.