Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Sander Tordoir

alina @ramshackle78.bsky.social · 1d

It's like with military, Europe left everything to the last minute, and now it's scrambling to set up sovereign capabilities. You don't get processing set up from one day to another.
Why did it take to March 2024 to have a European Critical Raw Materials Act?

5 16

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

„So much for a small yard with a high fence—we now confront a big square with a Great Wall.“

Would think CFR‘s Froman just has coined the key new metaphor, after China dramatically escalated export controls.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

The inability of the US and Europe to build an own supply of rare earth refining - knowing for years it was a huge vulnerability - must be one of the most catastrophic policy failures of the decade.

One reason it‘s hard: the West cannot free trade its way out when China controls the price mechanism

5 18

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

The inability of the US and Europe to build an own supply of rare earth refining - knowing for years it was a huge vulnerability - must be one of the most catastrophic policy failures of the decade.

One reason it‘s hard: the West cannot free trade its way out when China controls the price mechanism

6 15 46

Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 2d

« Les constructeurs allemands ont surtout un problème de demande », renchérit @sandertordoir.bsky.social, chef économiste au @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...

L’offensive du gouvernement allemand contre la fin du moteur thermique en 2035

Au terme d’un sommet automobile à Berlin, la coalition de Friedrich Merz s’est prononcée en faveur d’une réforme de la réglementation européenne fixant à 2035 la fin du moteur émetteur de CO₂. A…

www.lemonde.fr

1 1 3

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Would love to redirect intel money to Zeiss Trumpf clusters and Aachen / Leuven / Eindhoven. But that’s me.

1 2

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Mind the endogeneity of policy support in the estimate: we are going to be fine because of IP measures, too, including from our friends in Asia.

1

Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

1 1 7

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

I was obviously provoking with the “industrial policy can never work“ trope.

But in my experience discussions at some conferences in Europe are barely above that level of argument - exchanging strawmen.

4

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

It isn’t tiny, on the contrary - Tata Ijmuiden is Europes second largest steel plant.

1 1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Agree. The more we get into that nuanced discussion the better.

“You can’t pick winners” feels a bit stale at this point tbh, as does “let’s do industrial policy” with no specification.

There’s so much more interesting material to discuss and look at, including learning from Chinas successes.

1 4

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

You dropped the R-word. Perhaps some European rare earth industrial policy, say ten years ago, would have helped today? :)

Goes back to your spot on first point: industrial policy can be necessary and work but it is an “it depends” (on sectors strategic value etc.) incl knowing when NOT to

4

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Indeed. I’d think letting energy intensive industries migrate to the sun and wind abundant regions of Europe is smart. Then cros—subsidise from rich European regions for the green transformation so you’re not dependent on Chinese steel for your panzers.

1 1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

But just because Tata is riddled with dilemmas and trade offs…steel does matter a tad for defence. We‘ll need more than lithography machines and consultants to rearm.

2 5

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

One absurdity, of course, is that theres no European money for Beethoven. Europes key strategic sector and region and the Dutch have to solve it alone because we splurge EU money on [fill in]

2 6

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Absolutely. Beethoven is elegant I think - horizontal policy investments - education, labour, energy - but regionally and sector focused on Eindhoven. It’s good stuff.

Industrial policy is indeed far more tricky in dirty legacy industries. Do we let them die or try to transform?

2 4

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Beethoven plan*

1 1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

Come on Matt, a cop out! :) Do you like the Beethoven yes or no?

Always a joy to banter w Herr Dr Odendahl on this.

1 1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

You know, some of us have been banging the drum on the renminbi’s undervaluation with concern for a while.

Great to see the Fund Managing Director give it the attention it deserves.

1 1 11

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

We can replace lost China auto export with demand at home

1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2d

For the non-German speakers good take from Deutsche Welle on German autos with some arguments from my side.

amp.dw.com/en/german-ch...

German chancellor hosts auto summit as carmakers bleed jobs – DW – 10/09/2025

German automakers won fresh incentives to revive demand for electric vehicles during crunch talks with Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Berlin is under pressure to act as German sales slump while Chinese ri...

amp.dw.com

2 7 22

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

So this wasn't a prelude to another one? SAD!

1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

Very impressive. Would add that Poland’s military rampup has also mainly benefitted foreign production - another source of amazement on the performance.

1 8

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

As Nicolai says I am now anticipating another great Odendahl piece !

1

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

Without checking it must be Poland.

When it comes to churning out growth, few countries can keep up with Poland in the world, let alone the western world.

Poland did not even have a recession in 2008. Boom.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

Which country's economy grew faster since the last quarter of 2021 (seasonally adjusted): the US or #Poland?

2 5 39

Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d

As expected, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu and her Commission squarely survived the twin far-right and far-left motions of no confidence.

Von der Leyen easily survives double no-confidence vote | Euractiv

This is von der Leyen’s second defence this year

www.euractiv.com

1 2 24