Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
Pinned
Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Here is my starter pack on economics, trade and markets. Like others, my selection criterion was simple: these are minds I always learn from.
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
I'm sure I've missed many great accounts (still looking for some of my own friends). So please do suggest any additional names.
go.bsky.app/R2NdrtU
Indeed very much agree Angel.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
+1 You can see how Europe is getting incrementally defensive, slowly but surely, and the direction of travel is only one way, up. Not a controversial forecast to make at this point by any means, but people not paying attention may be underestimating how quickly the sense of urgency is building.
December 7, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Indeed very much agree Angel.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
The difficulty will be Chinese harsh retaliation on the supply side.
Europe is getting kicked out of China but remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs - similar to the dynamic the Trump team encountered.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
“The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP,” said @SanderTordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
December 7, 2025 at 8:07 AM
“The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP,” said @SanderTordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
December 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
December 6, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
As more voices in the EU clamour for broader China tariffs, a development Beijing surely wishes to avoid, the EU could ask it:
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
December 6, 2025 at 11:13 AM
As more voices in the EU clamour for broader China tariffs, a development Beijing surely wishes to avoid, the EU could ask it:
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
A) To loosen export controls on rare earths
B) Commit to appreciate the yuan by 1.5% a month for 12 months.
A good test if China wishes deescalation.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Der Spiegel obtained notes from a confidential phone call. Merz warned Americans are "playing games with Russia," Macron called a US deal "a great danger," Stubb said, "We must not leave Ukraine alone to face these people," and Rutte insisted, "We must protect Volodymyr."
December 5, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Der Spiegel obtained notes from a confidential phone call. Merz warned Americans are "playing games with Russia," Macron called a US deal "a great danger," Stubb said, "We must not leave Ukraine alone to face these people," and Rutte insisted, "We must protect Volodymyr."
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
December 5, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Always a pleasure to attend the terrific Pariser Platz conference.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
After a coffee break - this time with thematically fitting croissants- we continue with our Round Tables. Upstairs, @matellysy.bsky.social hosts a discussion on the European defence industry with Ester Sabatino, @gregclaeys.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social.
December 5, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Always a pleasure to attend the terrific Pariser Platz conference.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
And honoured to share some thoughts on the economic and funding challenges of Europes defence rampup.
Come on, you can’t morally-statistically equivocate hard working Rotterdam - as real economy as it gets - with Ireland’s phantom macro stats.
I thought the quick fix to the R effect was to make Niederschland a German province. Purely statistically speaking, of course.
December 3, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Come on, you can’t morally-statistically equivocate hard working Rotterdam - as real economy as it gets - with Ireland’s phantom macro stats.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, welcomed the return of subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, which will include a "local content" requirement, expected to ease pressure on the beleaguered automotive industry.
buff.ly/IdmWkZE
buff.ly/IdmWkZE
In Germany, Merz's economic program comes under fire
Amid growing skepticism from German economists, the Christian Democratic chancellor has struggled to launch reforms that could lift the country out of stagnation, while the promised fiscal stimulus…
www.lemonde.fr
December 3, 2025 at 9:00 AM
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, welcomed the return of subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, which will include a "local content" requirement, expected to ease pressure on the beleaguered automotive industry.
buff.ly/IdmWkZE
buff.ly/IdmWkZE
Are these Ireland adjusted? I only believe eurozone data ex Ireland.
BOOOOM.
Euro zone business activity expands at fastest pace in 30 months in November, PMI shows reut.rs/3KwRf0B
December 3, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Are these Ireland adjusted? I only believe eurozone data ex Ireland.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Delighted to be joining @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social for this discussion in Brussels next Wednesday about economic security and the role of the European Competitiveness Fund in delivering it - details below to register!
📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
December 2, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Delighted to be joining @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social for this discussion in Brussels next Wednesday about economic security and the role of the European Competitiveness Fund in delivering it - details below to register!
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
December 1, 2025 at 11:01 AM
📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
Email: [email protected] for info and registration
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Ideally you'd do what Setser is suggesting in the short term and what Sander is suggesting in the medium term
www.cfr.org/article/how-...
www.cfr.org/article/how-...
December 2, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Ideally you'd do what Setser is suggesting in the short term and what Sander is suggesting in the medium term
www.cfr.org/article/how-...
www.cfr.org/article/how-...
A bit unfortunate the ECB and Commission could not settle this matter - and dispel a bad idea - quietly and it had to land on the FT front page.
“ The European Central Bank has refused to backstop a €140bn payment to Ukraine”
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
ECB refuses to provide backstop for €140bn Ukraine loan
Central bank rejects role in European Commission proposal to use frozen Russian assets, saying it would be illegal
www.ft.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:50 PM
A bit unfortunate the ECB and Commission could not settle this matter - and dispel a bad idea - quietly and it had to land on the FT front page.
“ The European Central Bank has refused to backstop a €140bn payment to Ukraine”
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
ECB refuses to provide backstop for €140bn Ukraine loan
Central bank rejects role in European Commission proposal to use frozen Russian assets, saying it would be illegal
www.ft.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:47 PM
“ The European Central Bank has refused to backstop a €140bn payment to Ukraine”
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
The ECB backstopping the EU Ukraine loan reeks of monetary financing.
The ECB was obviously going to say no to such a request - not clear to me what the Commission was thinking.
1/
www.ft.com/content/616c...
Kind acolade from Table Media - and a fair description that I'm strongly in favour of bolstering and using Europe's own demand whilst deepening the single market more.
The widespread depoyment of economic coercion this year against the EU by the US and China would strengthen that thesis, me thinks.
The widespread depoyment of economic coercion this year against the EU by the US and China would strengthen that thesis, me thinks.
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social is named by @table.media as one of their 100 movers and shakers of the Europe.Table scene.
buff.ly/Tt1Zm7f
buff.ly/Tt1Zm7f
December 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Kind acolade from Table Media - and a fair description that I'm strongly in favour of bolstering and using Europe's own demand whilst deepening the single market more.
The widespread depoyment of economic coercion this year against the EU by the US and China would strengthen that thesis, me thinks.
The widespread depoyment of economic coercion this year against the EU by the US and China would strengthen that thesis, me thinks.
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
What kind of European security structures might replace the current tottering architecture? 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @uclei.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @uclei.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
December 2, 2025 at 12:00 PM
What kind of European security structures might replace the current tottering architecture? 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @uclei.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @uclei.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4
Likewise - very kind Nicolai!
Nice recognition of my work by @table.media, who put me on their 'Top 10 Think Tanks' for Europe the second year running, together with such great colleagues as @nilsredeker.bsky.social, @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @fundatekin.bsky.social.
December 2, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Likewise - very kind Nicolai!
Good chart too, from the FT.
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
December 1, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Good chart too, from the FT.
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
Of course a key challenge is that the benefits of single market integration are broad and diffuse, while the costs fall on narrow but powerful vested interests - from national insurance schemes to protected professions - that hide from competition behind national barriers.
Europe shouldn't abandon manufaturing - especially while the continent rearms.
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
Who killed Europe’s single market dream?
A decades-long effort to tear down internal trade barriers has stalled, leaving the EU economy ‘tagging along behind’
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Of course a key challenge is that the benefits of single market integration are broad and diffuse, while the costs fall on narrow but powerful vested interests - from national insurance schemes to protected professions - that hide from competition behind national barriers.
Europe shouldn't abandon manufaturing - especially while the continent rearms.
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
Who killed Europe’s single market dream?
A decades-long effort to tear down internal trade barriers has stalled, leaving the EU economy ‘tagging along behind’
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Europe shouldn't abandon manufaturing - especially while the continent rearms.
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
But more single market integration, especially in services, can offset trade shocks and boost incomes.
Great title on this FT piece, with an observation from my side.
www.ft.com/content/cbfd...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Wowza! That is policy impact right there ...
White smoke from Berlin: the coalition has agreed to tie new car purchase incentives to European preference rules - and work to align them across the EU.
A very smart move as @sandertordoir.bsky.social, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I have argued here:
www.delorscentre.eu/fileadmin/2_...
A very smart move as @sandertordoir.bsky.social, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I have argued here:
www.delorscentre.eu/fileadmin/2_...
November 28, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Wowza! That is policy impact right there ...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Deze podcast zou Jettebal moeten luisteren. Alles wat het volgende kabinet moet doen zit er in. podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/b...
547 – Knopen doorhakken, hervormen en stevig investeren: het formatie-advies van Jeroen Dijsselbloem en Pieter Duisenberg
Podcastaflevering · Betrouwbare Bronnen · 26-11-2025 · 1u 36m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Deze podcast zou Jettebal moeten luisteren. Alles wat het volgende kabinet moet doen zit er in. podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/b...