Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
For those who believe in evidence-based policy-making rather than vibes-based:
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
December 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
For those who believe in evidence-based policy-making rather than vibes-based:
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
This chart tells you far more about the state of Europes economy than vacuous simplification banter.
Domestic demand has gotten clobbered by the factors Nielsen lays out.
Cutting red tape is fine, but the Commission and Chancellor Merz sink way too much political capital into the ‘simplification’ sideshow.
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
December 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Cutting red tape is fine, but the Commission and Chancellor Merz sink way too much political capital into the ‘simplification’ sideshow.
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
The Dutch obsession with Argentinas dereg campaign - a country living on borrowed money from the US/IMF - is similarly misguided.
3/3
I have long thought the EU simplification fervour was a side show.
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
December 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
I have long thought the EU simplification fervour was a side show.
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Happy to see Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Erik Nielsen forcefully agree.
Where’s the overwhelming evidence that EU red tape is thé key barrier to economic growth in the EU or Germany?
1/
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
December 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
December 6, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Dutch coalition negotiations ground to a stalemate for now - as chief negotiator Buma says there’s no workable majority or minority government in sight for the time being.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Unfortunate but not unexpected per my post election take late October.
Good thing the world isn’t on fire.
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
December 5, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Bang on from Ed Luce and Martin Sandbu.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
Getting the Ukraine loan passed is now a key litmus test for Europe if it’s a herbivore in a carnivore world.
In other words the EU’d have to make the ESM an EU institution, build a proper European treasury and could then build tools to insure Ukraine loans.
Alongside @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social I’ve been making the case for true ESM reform for years (see eg from 2021) - but we’ve been unsuccessful.
6/
Alongside @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social I’ve been making the case for true ESM reform for years (see eg from 2021) - but we’ve been unsuccessful.
6/
December 2, 2025 at 1:47 PM
In other words the EU’d have to make the ESM an EU institution, build a proper European treasury and could then build tools to insure Ukraine loans.
Alongside @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social I’ve been making the case for true ESM reform for years (see eg from 2021) - but we’ve been unsuccessful.
6/
Alongside @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social I’ve been making the case for true ESM reform for years (see eg from 2021) - but we’ve been unsuccessful.
6/
Poorer and less populous regions have become key production sites for export-oriented manufacturers seeking cheaper land and labour. Access to intra-EU goods trade helps these regions climb the manufacturing value chain — as the blistering growth of CEE shows (the UK used to understand that).
2/2
2/2
December 1, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Poorer and less populous regions have become key production sites for export-oriented manufacturers seeking cheaper land and labour. Access to intra-EU goods trade helps these regions climb the manufacturing value chain — as the blistering growth of CEE shows (the UK used to understand that).
2/2
2/2
Good chart too, from the FT.
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
December 1, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Good chart too, from the FT.
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
The single market for goods is far more complete than the one for services, however.
And intra-EU goods trade has been an incredible economic convergence engine as it enables the regions of newer EU member-states to climb the manufacturing value chain.
1/
I also agree with Luis Garicano et al's argument - in an ideal world Europe would push harmonisation more forcefully - I'd call it deregulation through integration: cut back a forest of 27 laws to just one.
But Member-states may cling to the narcissism of small differences.
8/8
But Member-states may cling to the narcissism of small differences.
8/8
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
I also agree with Luis Garicano et al's argument - in an ideal world Europe would push harmonisation more forcefully - I'd call it deregulation through integration: cut back a forest of 27 laws to just one.
But Member-states may cling to the narcissism of small differences.
8/8
But Member-states may cling to the narcissism of small differences.
8/8
…more intra-EU competition in services would ultimately raise productivity in Germany’s weaker sector.
The EU’s push to extract more growth from the single market as global markets close tracks Germany’s own need to overhaul its growth model (it would take some courage/vision though).
7/
The EU’s push to extract more growth from the single market as global markets close tracks Germany’s own need to overhaul its growth model (it would take some courage/vision though).
7/
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
…more intra-EU competition in services would ultimately raise productivity in Germany’s weaker sector.
The EU’s push to extract more growth from the single market as global markets close tracks Germany’s own need to overhaul its growth model (it would take some courage/vision though).
7/
The EU’s push to extract more growth from the single market as global markets close tracks Germany’s own need to overhaul its growth model (it would take some courage/vision though).
7/
The flipside of the IMF argument: if EU services integration accelerates, growth risks concentrating in a few big cities — a “Londonification” of Europe.
To avoid widening regional divides, the EU should back smaller knowledge city-regions instead of pouring money only into poorer regions.
4/
To avoid widening regional divides, the EU should back smaller knowledge city-regions instead of pouring money only into poorer regions.
4/
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
The flipside of the IMF argument: if EU services integration accelerates, growth risks concentrating in a few big cities — a “Londonification” of Europe.
To avoid widening regional divides, the EU should back smaller knowledge city-regions instead of pouring money only into poorer regions.
4/
To avoid widening regional divides, the EU should back smaller knowledge city-regions instead of pouring money only into poorer regions.
4/
If it is possible to locate an office in one region, and use it to service hundreds of thousands of customers in other EU regions, productivity is likely to be high in terms of output per input.
And higher productivity means higher income. The IMF makes similar points.
3/
And higher productivity means higher income. The IMF makes similar points.
3/
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
If it is possible to locate an office in one region, and use it to service hundreds of thousands of customers in other EU regions, productivity is likely to be high in terms of output per input.
And higher productivity means higher income. The IMF makes similar points.
3/
And higher productivity means higher income. The IMF makes similar points.
3/
In our latest paper on the single market we showed that trade in knowledge services is growing rapidly in the EU, on the back of digitalisation -- despite sizeable regulatory barriers.
Services tend to be less productive than manufacturing, but tradeability is a big deal.
2/
Services tend to be less productive than manufacturing, but tradeability is a big deal.
2/
December 1, 2025 at 9:42 AM
In our latest paper on the single market we showed that trade in knowledge services is growing rapidly in the EU, on the back of digitalisation -- despite sizeable regulatory barriers.
Services tend to be less productive than manufacturing, but tradeability is a big deal.
2/
Services tend to be less productive than manufacturing, but tradeability is a big deal.
2/
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
November 24, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Turns out I wasn’t the only one who thought this paper was an excellent x-ray of the UK economy.
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
It features prominently in Martin Wolfs new FT column
The United States is no longer providing any financial support for Ukraine according to Kiel's tracker - and has not been for a few months now (although I do wonder how one counts the intelligence support).
Europe is footing the bill alone.
Europe is footing the bill alone.
November 24, 2025 at 1:01 AM
The United States is no longer providing any financial support for Ukraine according to Kiel's tracker - and has not been for a few months now (although I do wonder how one counts the intelligence support).
Europe is footing the bill alone.
Europe is footing the bill alone.
My hunch is that the trade data cited do not go deep enough to capture the dependencies.
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
November 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
My hunch is that the trade data cited do not go deep enough to capture the dependencies.
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The ECB showed nicely that the eurozone for example imports a lot of REE and REE magnets from US subsidiaries who in turn rely on China.
2/2
The Economists new cover.
November 20, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The Economists new cover.
Thorsten Benner not mincing his words. Hard hitting piece on China eating Germanys lunch and the woefully inadequate response.
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
November 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Thorsten Benner not mincing his words. Hard hitting piece on China eating Germanys lunch and the woefully inadequate response.
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
The Scholz-Li Qiang anecdote is stunning.
www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...
I’ve been saying this on panels recently.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
November 20, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I’ve been saying this on panels recently.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
Europes EV tariffs are starting to fail. China is simply switching to exporting hybrids which weren’t under the duty.
I’m not convinced the EU can fully avoid a broader duty on all Chinese cars (EV Hybrid and ICE) - who all get subsidised anyway.
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
November 17, 2025 at 9:57 PM
From the great new NBER paper by Bloom et al on the cost of Brexit.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
It ain't pretty - they estimate UK GDP is down between 6-8%. Consistent with the doppelgang model of @johnspringford.bsky.social for CER.
A lot of 'free' GDP available availabe for Labour if it had the courage to reset properly.
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
November 17, 2025 at 9:55 AM
More evidence of European luxury facing increasing competition from home-grown Chinese brands.
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Bloomberg: "Chinese consumers are losing interest in heritage European and US luxury brands, instead favoring homegrown premium labels for their distinctive Eastern aesthetic"
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
November 17, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Excellent AER paper from Luca et al. demonstrating how China’s exports crowd out production and curb innovation globally.
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
It reinforces the argument I made in Politico last year about the drag China’s distortions place on EU productivity and innovation.
1/
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
November 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Some reflections from my side in the FT.
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
There’s widespread concern about the low quality of Germany’s spending.
I’d add that the European single market is indispensable to rekindle the German economy.
1/
Gold and Rolex helped too
November 15, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Gold and Rolex helped too