Jo Michell
@jomichell.bsky.social
Professor of economics at UWE Bristol. Chair of Post-Keynesian Economics Society. Interested in macro, finance, banking, climate change, inequality, demographics.
https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/JoMichell
https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/JoMichell
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Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Great thread, this.
I say this as someone who is very much anti-intellectual - few politicians in this country did more to make anti-intellectualism central to political communication than Tony Blair
He wasn't anti-intellectual himself, but New Labour was very self-conscious about cultivating a "common touch"
He wasn't anti-intellectual himself, but New Labour was very self-conscious about cultivating a "common touch"
November 28, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Great thread, this.
Reposted by Jo Michell
And when the centrists regained control of the party it was based on a flagrantly dishonest leadership campaign which didn't seek any more than a tactical departure from the most controversial elements of Corbynism, and justified on the need to get elected.
Blue Labour filled the vacuum.
Blue Labour filled the vacuum.
November 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
And when the centrists regained control of the party it was based on a flagrantly dishonest leadership campaign which didn't seek any more than a tactical departure from the most controversial elements of Corbynism, and justified on the need to get elected.
Blue Labour filled the vacuum.
Blue Labour filled the vacuum.
Happy Friday everyone. Here’s to a higher tax bill. At last.
November 28, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Happy Friday everyone. Here’s to a higher tax bill. At last.
One thing this disclosure illustrates, once again, is the volatility of these forecasts. There's a swing of nearly £7bn, *within October* on the current budget forecast.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
November 28, 2025 at 1:44 PM
One thing this disclosure illustrates, once again, is the volatility of these forecasts. There's a swing of nearly £7bn, *within October* on the current budget forecast.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Lifting the two-child cap cost about £3bn. That could have been wiped out twice purely by the timing of the budget.
Reposted by Jo Michell
So many beautiful economics papers will follow from this arbitrary kink in the tax code.
Homeowners rush to price properties just under ‘mansion tax’ thresholds on.ft.com/3Ma4816
Homeowners rush to price properties just under ‘mansion tax’ thresholds
Estate agents say ‘bunching’ practice likely to pick up pace ahead of start of surcharge in April 2028
on.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
So many beautiful economics papers will follow from this arbitrary kink in the tax code.
Reposted by Jo Michell
If a drug was having this societal effect it would be banned within a week. Across the world, politicians are - through their inaction - completely abdicating their responsibilities to civil democratic discourse.
November 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM
If a drug was having this societal effect it would be banned within a week. Across the world, politicians are - through their inaction - completely abdicating their responsibilities to civil democratic discourse.
Reposted by Jo Michell
There was no state. Who does she think crucified him, an anarchist collective?
November 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
There was no state. Who does she think crucified him, an anarchist collective?
Reposted by Jo Michell
Such important context for the scrapping of the two child limit:
70% of the additional spending from removing the two-child limit will go to families who are in work. This is targeting support for low-income working households who are being priced out of a decent standard of living despite doing everything asked of them.
November 28, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Such important context for the scrapping of the two child limit:
Reposted by Jo Michell
Active DMO when there’s a lot of risk premia out the curve and uncertainty over the scale of structural demand for long bonds is smart and necessary
November 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Active DMO when there’s a lot of risk premia out the curve and uncertainty over the scale of structural demand for long bonds is smart and necessary
Reposted by Jo Michell
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
November 28, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Kinnock voice - "I’ll tell you what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions....and you end up in the grotesque chaos of a Labour government, a *Labour* government, rejecting visas for homeless 8 yr olds trying to joing their parents"
Reposted by Jo Michell
Welcome Shabana Mahmood to your next four years of headlines!!!
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
www.thetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Welcome Shabana Mahmood to your next four years of headlines!!!
My main conclusion from the OBR document fiasco is that if we are going to have an OBR, we should fund it properly.
November 28, 2025 at 9:44 AM
My main conclusion from the OBR document fiasco is that if we are going to have an OBR, we should fund it properly.
Reposted by Jo Michell
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
November 27, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
Reposted by Jo Michell
The "don't have an extra kid if you can't afford it" brigade get awfully upset when you suggest they don't stay in their £2m house if they can't afford it, don't they?
November 27, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The "don't have an extra kid if you can't afford it" brigade get awfully upset when you suggest they don't stay in their £2m house if they can't afford it, don't they?
Reposted by Jo Michell
The diplomatic "achievement" of the ceasefire was to recalibrate the tempo of the genocide sufficiently to get it off the front pages and the news bulletins, thus alleviating the political pressure on Israel's western accomplices.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Israel still committing genocide in Gaza, Amnesty International says
The NGO’s chief says last month’s ceasefire ‘risks creating a dangerous illusion that life in Gaza is returning to normal’
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 7:46 PM
The diplomatic "achievement" of the ceasefire was to recalibrate the tempo of the genocide sufficiently to get it off the front pages and the news bulletins, thus alleviating the political pressure on Israel's western accomplices.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Jo Michell
This just makes me feel even worse for whichever poor lad/lass pressed the button...
This is mad.
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Obviously it was a massive error.
But Richard Hughes resigning would be a huge over-response.
on.ft.com/485r0Yd OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
OBR chair under pressure over early release of Budget analysis
Senior Labour MP calls for UK’s fiscal watchdog chair Richard Hughes to ‘consider his position’
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
This just makes me feel even worse for whichever poor lad/lass pressed the button...
Reposted by Jo Michell
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
November 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM
YOU WANTED NET IMMIGRATION TO COME DOWN! THIS IS WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE!
Reposted by Jo Michell
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
Reposted by Jo Michell
The main takeaway from the leak: I think coverage was much improved by giving analysts, journalists and politicians earlier site of the documents. Release it at the same time next year, imo
November 27, 2025 at 12:52 PM
The main takeaway from the leak: I think coverage was much improved by giving analysts, journalists and politicians earlier site of the documents. Release it at the same time next year, imo
Reposted by Jo Michell
What even are par-par asset swaps, and why won’t they melt the gilt market today?
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
Don’t worry about another leveraged gilt market blow-up
Keep calm and carry on
on.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:58 AM
What even are par-par asset swaps, and why won’t they melt the gilt market today?
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
Reposted by Jo Michell
WASHINGTON (AP) — Two National Guard members have been shot in Washington, D.C., and their condition isn't known, AP source says.
November 26, 2025 at 7:47 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — Two National Guard members have been shot in Washington, D.C., and their condition isn't known, AP source says.
Reposted by Jo Michell
Stephen is calling it - insufficiently brave to move the needle on the spending side, and pushing off the tax pain into the next election season. Ain’t gonna hold.
The second year of magical thinking: this evening's newsletter on the Budget:
Rachel Reeves doubles down on wishful thinking
A government that can’t make tough choices now is unlikely to do so on the eve of an election
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Stephen is calling it - insufficiently brave to move the needle on the spending side, and pushing off the tax pain into the next election season. Ain’t gonna hold.
Pre-budget takes are much riskier than post-budget takes but I think this one holds up OK. TBF, we knew what was coming, but there were no negative rabbits. I might soften the criticism of Labour slightly now we have the PDF: the 'smorgasbord' wasn't as smorgasbordy as might have been feared.
This is very good and works just as well as a post-budget take
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Pre-budget takes are much riskier than post-budget takes but I think this one holds up OK. TBF, we knew what was coming, but there were no negative rabbits. I might soften the criticism of Labour slightly now we have the PDF: the 'smorgasbord' wasn't as smorgasbordy as might have been feared.
Reposted by Jo Michell
More evidence for my belief that “politically impossible” just means no one has done it yet
Im old enough to remember when road pricing and a mansion tax were seen as politically impossible.
November 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
More evidence for my belief that “politically impossible” just means no one has done it yet