Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
Meanwhile, in the real world
November 28, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Meanwhile, in the real world
This would just leave Ukraine open to the US changing its mind and not providing anything
If the issue is that Russia won't agree to the security guarantees then that clearly shows you their ambition is to restart the war after this 'peace' deal
If the issue is that Russia won't agree to the security guarantees then that clearly shows you their ambition is to restart the war after this 'peace' deal
⚡️ US to discuss Ukraine security guarantees after peace deal signed, Rubio tells allies.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured allies during a Nov. 25 call that the U.S. plans to address security guarantees once an agreement is reached, Politico reported.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured allies during a Nov. 25 call that the U.S. plans to address security guarantees once an agreement is reached, Politico reported.
US to discuss Ukraine security guarantees after peace deal signed, Rubio tells allies
Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured allies during a Nov. 25 call that the U.S. plans to address security guarantees once an agreement is reached, Politico reported.
kyivindependent.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:51 PM
This would just leave Ukraine open to the US changing its mind and not providing anything
If the issue is that Russia won't agree to the security guarantees then that clearly shows you their ambition is to restart the war after this 'peace' deal
If the issue is that Russia won't agree to the security guarantees then that clearly shows you their ambition is to restart the war after this 'peace' deal
Unfortunately it's not that rosy
Russia doesn't have a formal veto but the US does, so if the US wants to appease Russia then it works out to the same thing
Russia doesn't have a formal veto but the US does, so if the US wants to appease Russia then it works out to the same thing
Good stuff from Rutte, and a reminder to the US and Russia that there are some things they cannot control
www.politico.eu/article/mark...
www.politico.eu/article/mark...
Rutte rules out Russian veto on Ukraine joining NATO
The alliance chief also warned that the threat Moscow poses to Europe will far outlast any peace deal reached with Kyiv.
www.politico.eu
November 27, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Unfortunately it's not that rosy
Russia doesn't have a formal veto but the US does, so if the US wants to appease Russia then it works out to the same thing
Russia doesn't have a formal veto but the US does, so if the US wants to appease Russia then it works out to the same thing
Matches the sentiment in this German polling, with 66% saying Ukraine shouldn't accept the current terms of the deal
Only AfD voters are in favour
Only AfD voters are in favour
November 26, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Matches the sentiment in this German polling, with 66% saying Ukraine shouldn't accept the current terms of the deal
Only AfD voters are in favour
Only AfD voters are in favour
Reposted by Pascal
New: Three new ex-pupils come forward, on the record, to say Farage's racism as a teenager was targeted, persistent and nasty. Farage has denied targeting any individuals - but two of the men tell us they recall Farage abusing Peter Ettedgui.
w/ Dan Boffey, @drblacklock.bsky.social
w/ Dan Boffey, @drblacklock.bsky.social
Three more ex-pupils at school with Nigel Farage reject ‘banter’ claims
Exclusive: Dulwich college contemporaries ‘rubbish’ Reform UK leader’s suggestion alleged racist taunts not intended to hurt
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:17 PM
New: Three new ex-pupils come forward, on the record, to say Farage's racism as a teenager was targeted, persistent and nasty. Farage has denied targeting any individuals - but two of the men tell us they recall Farage abusing Peter Ettedgui.
w/ Dan Boffey, @drblacklock.bsky.social
w/ Dan Boffey, @drblacklock.bsky.social
And an opportunity to make this point again
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
November 25, 2025 at 9:02 PM
And an opportunity to make this point again
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
Reposted by Pascal
"Any idea that a sizable chunk of frozen Russian sovereign assets could be split between Russia and the United States as part of a peace deal is fundamentally wrong in law and in principle," said Iryna Mudra, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office in charge of legal matters.
Ukraine rejects using Russian assets as bargaining chip in peace talks
"Keeping the assets permanently 'on ice' or turning them into a bargaining chip between Russia and another power only prolongs the conflict," Iryna Mudra, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's...
kyivindependent.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM
"Any idea that a sizable chunk of frozen Russian sovereign assets could be split between Russia and the United States as part of a peace deal is fundamentally wrong in law and in principle," said Iryna Mudra, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office in charge of legal matters.
I wonder if putting a huge chunk of green in the East under Russian control might hurt Europe's food security
Great map of European soil -- so many different things to pick up on.
November 25, 2025 at 10:23 AM
I wonder if putting a huge chunk of green in the East under Russian control might hurt Europe's food security
My latest this week on the essential role that Europe plays in peace talks for Ukraine and how a narrative of Europe being 'sidelined' misses the point
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
The myth of European powerlessness in Ukraine talks
A peace deal without Europe is impossible
pascallth.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:11 PM
My latest this week on the essential role that Europe plays in peace talks for Ukraine and how a narrative of Europe being 'sidelined' misses the point
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
Reported removal of limits on Ukrainian army is good, but most of it is still left open
Still, shows the idea Ukraine had to accept what was on offer last week was wrong
Still, shows the idea Ukraine had to accept what was on offer last week was wrong
US and Ukraine draft new 19-point peace plan but defer biggest decisions on.ft.com/3LX7J2I
US and Ukraine draft new 19-point peace plan but defer biggest decisions
The most politically sensitive elements left for Trump and Zelenskyy to discuss
on.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Reported removal of limits on Ukrainian army is good, but most of it is still left open
Still, shows the idea Ukraine had to accept what was on offer last week was wrong
Still, shows the idea Ukraine had to accept what was on offer last week was wrong
The Geneva talks are really a case of reconstructing a joint transatlantic position on Ukraine after last week's split
The big take away from the Geneva talks is that this is no longer a take it or leave it ultimatum issued to Ukraine. Furthermore, as much as this was a "Russian proposal," the Kremlin also didn't just say yes either. They were also noncommittal, wanting revisions. It looks like Geneva talks will...
November 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The Geneva talks are really a case of reconstructing a joint transatlantic position on Ukraine after last week's split
Several headlines on the theme of 'progress in Ukraine peace talks'
But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace
The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace
The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
November 24, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Several headlines on the theme of 'progress in Ukraine peace talks'
But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace
The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
But we know that the new text will likely be rejected by Russia, meaning we are no closer to peace
The real story is US-Europe reconciliation talks
This is probably right in terms of how Washington sees it, but the opposite could actually be true - a leader who is weak at home will struggle much more to sell an unpopular deal and so has less room to make concessions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing a challenge to his presidency as major corruption allegations rock the wartime leader’s innermost circle just as Washington ramps up pressure for him to agree to an unfavorable peace deal.
Zelensky has never been more vulnerable. Trump just upped the pressure.
It is the greatest challenge to Zelensky since the invasion as people demand a reorganization of a system that allowed corruption to flourish as they suffered.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2025 at 8:56 PM
This is probably right in terms of how Washington sees it, but the opposite could actually be true - a leader who is weak at home will struggle much more to sell an unpopular deal and so has less room to make concessions
Reposted by Pascal
⚡️Update: UK, France, Germany to join US-Ukraine talks in Switzerland.
Representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany will discuss Trump's new peace proposal at upcoming talks in Switzerland, the AFP reported. European officials will join a U.S. and Ukrainian delegation in Geneva on Nov. 23.
Representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany will discuss Trump's new peace proposal at upcoming talks in Switzerland, the AFP reported. European officials will join a U.S. and Ukrainian delegation in Geneva on Nov. 23.
US-Ukraine 'consultations' on Trump's peace deal to begin in Switzerland 'in coming days,' Umerov says
Nine Ukrainian officials, including Andriy Yermak, Head of the President's Office, and Kyrylo Budanov, the country's military intelligence chief, are set to attend the meeting, according to a presiden...
kyivindependent.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
⚡️Update: UK, France, Germany to join US-Ukraine talks in Switzerland.
Representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany will discuss Trump's new peace proposal at upcoming talks in Switzerland, the AFP reported. European officials will join a U.S. and Ukrainian delegation in Geneva on Nov. 23.
Representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany will discuss Trump's new peace proposal at upcoming talks in Switzerland, the AFP reported. European officials will join a U.S. and Ukrainian delegation in Geneva on Nov. 23.
Reposted by Pascal
On Holodomor Remembrance Day, Ukrainians light a candle at 4 pm
and place it on the windowsill to honor the millions who died in the 1932-1933 famine.
🕯️4 pm in Ukraine
and place it on the windowsill to honor the millions who died in the 1932-1933 famine.
🕯️4 pm in Ukraine
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 PM
On Holodomor Remembrance Day, Ukrainians light a candle at 4 pm
and place it on the windowsill to honor the millions who died in the 1932-1933 famine.
🕯️4 pm in Ukraine
and place it on the windowsill to honor the millions who died in the 1932-1933 famine.
🕯️4 pm in Ukraine
For a guy who is an ideological ally of Trump, this is probably as close to a rebuke as we can expect
Polish President Nawrocki on X: 'The emerging proposals to end Russia's war against Ukraine must take into account the fact that Russia is a country that does not honour agreements. The price of peace cannot in any way be the achievement of strategic goals by the aggressor: the Russian Federation.'
November 22, 2025 at 12:05 PM
For a guy who is an ideological ally of Trump, this is probably as close to a rebuke as we can expect
Sounds like Zelensky won't bow to the threats from Washington
6/ We did not betray Ukraine in February 2022 and will not do it now, Zelenskyy said. He stated he is not alone in this difficult moment, that Ukrainians believe in their state and are united, which will help achieve dignified peace in negotiations with partners.
November 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Sounds like Zelensky won't bow to the threats from Washington
'Support' is a very broad term
Likely means suspending intelligence sharing, which is unhelpful but doesn't stop Ukraine fighting
Nuclear option would be vetoing transfer of US equipment bought by other countries for Ukraine
Likely means suspending intelligence sharing, which is unhelpful but doesn't stop Ukraine fighting
Nuclear option would be vetoing transfer of US equipment bought by other countries for Ukraine
Breaking news: The White House is pressuring Ukraine to sign on to its new peace proposal by Thanksgiving or lose U.S. support to the country, according to officials familiar with the talks.
U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support
The U.S. is now sending “signals” that everything could be off the table if Kyiv does not quickly sign a proposal, which was drawn up by special envoy Witkoff.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:13 PM
'Support' is a very broad term
Likely means suspending intelligence sharing, which is unhelpful but doesn't stop Ukraine fighting
Nuclear option would be vetoing transfer of US equipment bought by other countries for Ukraine
Likely means suspending intelligence sharing, which is unhelpful but doesn't stop Ukraine fighting
Nuclear option would be vetoing transfer of US equipment bought by other countries for Ukraine
Reposted by Pascal
President Zelensky is currently holding a call with France’s Macron, Germany’s Merz and UK’s Starmer, the Ukrainian president’s office tells me. They are working to develop counter points to the Trump peace proposal that is very pro-Russian & filled with demands that are red lines for Kyiv & Europe.
November 21, 2025 at 11:41 AM
President Zelensky is currently holding a call with France’s Macron, Germany’s Merz and UK’s Starmer, the Ukrainian president’s office tells me. They are working to develop counter points to the Trump peace proposal that is very pro-Russian & filled with demands that are red lines for Kyiv & Europe.
Good time to buy defence stocks then
Oil, gas & European defence stocks fall in response to US support for the plan.
- @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu says will “discuss the situation both w European leaders & w other leaders here at the sidelines of the G20”
- @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu says plan not been "officially" shared with EU
- @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu says will “discuss the situation both w European leaders & w other leaders here at the sidelines of the G20”
- @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu says plan not been "officially" shared with EU
November 21, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Good time to buy defence stocks then
US input is very minimal here, which mostly consists of a greatest hits compilation from a Russia Today broadcast
Really vague provisions to support Ukraine's security, sharp detail to undermine it and no real brakes on Russia relaunching the war in just a few years
www.ft.com/content/79ee...
Really vague provisions to support Ukraine's security, sharp detail to undermine it and no real brakes on Russia relaunching the war in just a few years
www.ft.com/content/79ee...
Read the full text of Trump’s 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan
Proposed deal would limit size of Ukrainian forces and calls on Kyiv to withdraw troops from eastern Donetsk
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:22 AM
US input is very minimal here, which mostly consists of a greatest hits compilation from a Russia Today broadcast
Really vague provisions to support Ukraine's security, sharp detail to undermine it and no real brakes on Russia relaunching the war in just a few years
www.ft.com/content/79ee...
Really vague provisions to support Ukraine's security, sharp detail to undermine it and no real brakes on Russia relaunching the war in just a few years
www.ft.com/content/79ee...
Reposted by Pascal
Yes, Zelensky is under huge domestic pressure these days. However, the pressure isn't to "settle the war" but to show he'll accept anticorruption institutions' work. Watch for whether he fires Yermak rather than whether he'll agree to whatever "peace" plan Ru and Witkoff came up with.
November 19, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Yes, Zelensky is under huge domestic pressure these days. However, the pressure isn't to "settle the war" but to show he'll accept anticorruption institutions' work. Watch for whether he fires Yermak rather than whether he'll agree to whatever "peace" plan Ru and Witkoff came up with.
A very revealing remark in that report from a White House official - that what Europe thinks doesn't matter to them, only what Ukraine will accept
But when the financial and military support for Ukraine is coming from Europe, our view has quite a big impact on what Ukraine will accept
But when the financial and military support for Ukraine is coming from Europe, our view has quite a big impact on what Ukraine will accept
Ukraine is now in a position where it would have to accept a deal to end the war, no matter the terms. According to Politico, citing White House sources, the Trump team agreed on a plan with Moscow without involving Ukraine or Europe.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
November 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
A very revealing remark in that report from a White House official - that what Europe thinks doesn't matter to them, only what Ukraine will accept
But when the financial and military support for Ukraine is coming from Europe, our view has quite a big impact on what Ukraine will accept
But when the financial and military support for Ukraine is coming from Europe, our view has quite a big impact on what Ukraine will accept
Left-wing party takes mayoral post in Copenhagen from Social Democrats who held it for over 100 years
cphpost.dk/2025-11-19/n...
cphpost.dk/2025-11-19/n...
Sisse Marie Welling (SF) will be the new Mayor of Copenhagen. Social Democrats lose the capital after over 100 years - The Copenhagen Post
Sisse Marie Welling from Socialistisk Folkeparti (SF, the Socialist People’s Party) was appointed as the new lord mayor of Copenhagen. She announced the result at Copenhagen City Hall after overnight ...
cphpost.dk
November 19, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Left-wing party takes mayoral post in Copenhagen from Social Democrats who held it for over 100 years
cphpost.dk/2025-11-19/n...
cphpost.dk/2025-11-19/n...