Ben Tonra
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Ben Tonra
@bentonra.bsky.social

Professor of International Relations at UCD Dublin; Dundrum Methodist Church; Royal Irish Academy; Azure Forum, IDSA and Gym Dad. Mix of Mayo, Kerry, West Virginia and suburban Maryland.

Political science 84%
Sociology 11%
Friedrich Merz says the reparations loan is the only decision the EU can take to support Ukraine because the other options (meaning joint debt) "require consensus and we're not going to get it".

"We can only work with a qualified majority."

Fair point in part… but it is an important signal that the Government is serious about addressing these issues. It’s not hand waving that the Moscow/Beijing etc. can veto Irish troop deployment. It could also be urgent if Ireland asked to contribute to Gaza or Ukraine peace/stabilisation force.

No sense of urgency or importance. Unfathomable.

“I think we need to take back our sovereignty in that regard. We need to take back our ability to be able to deploy our troops on the ground in parts of the world that need their expertise.”

www.irishtimes.com/world/europe...
Triple-lock reforms are about ‘taking back sovereignty’, Helen McEntee says
Government moving ‘quickly’ on legislation to remove need for UN mandate for peacekeeping missions
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

❗️Right now is a critical moment in the negotiations. A peace agreement is closer than ever in these 4 years, – Stubb.

The President of Finland added: The USA, Ukraine, and Europe are working on 3 documents: a peace plan with 20 points, security guarantees for Ukraine, and post-war reconstruction.

Reposted by Ben Tonra

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 21h
Only Europe can save Ukraine from Putin and Trump—but will it?

Whether using frozen Russian assets, ramping up defence production or deepening the relationship with the EU, it is up to us to secure Ukraine’s future—and our own, writes Timothy Garton Ash.

https://bit.ly/4q5lKtV
Only Europe can save Ukraine from Putin and Trump—but will it?
Whether using frozen Russian assets, ramping up defence production or deepening the relationship with the EU, it is up to us to secure Ukraine’s future—and our own…
bit.ly

Reposted by Ben Tonra

❗️The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called Viktor Orbán "Russia's most valuable frozen asset in Europe".

Reposted by Ben Tonra

❄️💲Using frozen Russian assets will change the balance of power in the war, Europe must act, — The Times.

If on Thursday, December 18, European leaders agree to use these reserves, it will be a turning point in the war and, perhaps, for the security of Europe itself.
Extraordinary courage from Ahmed al Ahmed, a Muslim, 43-year-old father of two, who bravely risked his life to save his neighbors celebrating Hanukkah.

Praying for his full & speedy recovery.

And so deeply inspired by his example.
WATCH: Bystander disarms active shooter at Bondi Beach in Sydney
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Russia established a disinformation network in Europe to discredit Ukrainian refugees and Ukraine as a state.

🇦🇹 An Austrian national coordinated the operation and had cooperated with Russian special services for many years.

Read more 👀
theukrainianreview.info/ukrainian-na...
“Ukrainian Nazis” in Austria, Constructed by Russia
Russia established a disinformation network in Europe to discredit Ukrainian refugees and Ukraine as a state. This network operated most actively in Austria.
theukrainianreview.info
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz has compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler, warning that the Kremlin leader’s ambitions won’t stop with Ukraine. politi.co/3MCBk1w
Merz compares Putin to Hitler: ‘He won’t stop’
“Just as the Sudetenland was not enough in 1938, Putin will not stop,” Merz told a party conference in Germany.
www.politico.eu

… and in return for creating a potential precedent with respect to Taiwan. If the world signs off on border change via invasion, Taiwan immeasurably less secure. As is everyone else.
WATCH: Bystander disarms active shooter at Bondi Beach in Sydney

Partially agree… but the playbook has been used in Crimea and easily applied in Baltic States. Doesn’t require huge traditional military resources, as NATO convulsed and US withdraws. An attack doesn’t have to come in traditional forms to be effective + Russia clearly willing to play nuclear cards.
QA Resources AS
resources.as

Russia is attacking Europe now across multiple fronts. Putin has used the same arguments against Baltic states that he’s applied to Ukraine. Putin laments the loss of USSR. Nobody wants to spend resources on defence - unless they are forced to - witness massive European disarmament from 1990s.

That’s the point. This aren’t credible Ukraine/Russia peace plans. These are desperate and failing negotiations between Europe/Ukraine and the US to retain the hollow shell of an Atlantic Alliance. Trump wants out.
❗️Zelensky is trying to revise Trump's peace plan rather than reject it outright, according to WSJ.

As the publication writes, Ukraine's president is working on revising the U.S.-proposed peace plan, attempting to make it acceptable for Kyiv without directly rejecting the document in order

That’s tough… with every shred of empirical evidence pointing in the opposite direction! 😏

“Europe is the most powerful remaining force upholding the rule of law…A thriving liberal Europe is also threat as an example of an alternative system, a proof of concept of liberal democracy that people in the US can look to, having a cultural impact.”

www.irishtimes.com/world/europe...
Why does Trump hate Europe?
A new security strategy influenced by Maga ideology has Ireland in its sights
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

❗️Zelensky is trying to revise Trump's peace plan rather than reject it outright, according to WSJ.

As the publication writes, Ukraine's president is working on revising the U.S.-proposed peace plan, attempting to make it acceptable for Kyiv without directly rejecting the document in order

A sadly illustrative analysis of Irish security/defence weaknesses: grossly inadequate resourcing/equipment, limited operational training, outdated command and control structures, poor rules of engagement, interagency blame games, absence of political leadership.

www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025...
Drones over Dublin Bay: What happened during Zelenskiy’s visit to Ireland?
Incident during Ukrainian president’s visit suggests the State is ill-equipped for new era of hybrid warfare and risks serious embarrassment next year
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

❗️"The decades of Pax Americana have largely ended for us in Europe; it no longer exists in the form in which we once knew it," — German Chancellor Merz.

Reposted by Ben Tonra

🇩🇪 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz drew a historical parallel, warning that if Ukraine falls, Russian aggression will not stop. He compared the situation to 1938, when appeasement after the Sudetenland was insufficient, suggesting Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine.

Reposted by Ben Tonra

I can't stress enough the importance of the EU getting rid of "all" US cloud providers, and Microsoft operating systems ASAP.

It needs to be done, like yesterday.

Reposted by Ben Tonra

>The officer then said that even a swift return of America to its former role won’t matter. 

>Because “we will never fucking trust you again.”

Accurate.

www.readtheline.ca/p/matt-gurne...
Matt Gurney: 'We will never fucking trust you again'
Some blunt talk for our American neighbours at the Halifax International Security Forum.
www.readtheline.ca

Reposted by Ben Tonra

For the first time since WWII, the US is not on our side in Europe. It has sided with the aggressor against Ukraine and European security, seeking to mediate with Russia. The US no longer sees itself as NATO’s leader and treats Europe as a strategic target.

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/w...
The Challenges to Europe’s Security Go Beyond Trump’s Lack of Support
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

The Government's €1.7bn defence spending plan, announced this week, comes at a time when there is a widespread perception that Ireland lags far behind its neighbours when it comes to defence and security, writes Political Coverage Editor Joe Mag Raollaigh
Defence spending takes centre stage as weak links exposed
The Government's €1.7bn defence spending plan, announced this week, comes at a time when there is a widespread perception that Ireland lags far behind its neighbours when it comes to defence and secur...
www.rte.ie
Defence Forces has no rules of engagement for dealing with drones despite rising threat
Defence Forces has no rules of engagement for dealing with drones despite rising threat
Devices sighted in skies of Dublin Bay on night Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy landed in State
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Ben Tonra

This is a powerful message to Ukraine:

We want to make sure that our brave neighbour becomes even stronger on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

Reposted by Ben Tonra

Here’s Zelenskyy, freely walking in Kupyansk that Russia claimed to have occupied.

So when we talk about “occupied territories in exchange for peace”, what exactly are we talking about.