Jay Shambaugh

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 12h

Five. Alarm. Fire. 🔥

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 1d

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Antonio Fatás

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21h

For those who don’t follow central banking. We should be clear. This is an attempt by Trump to bully the central bank and have the Fed make policy he likes. It goes against a century of tradition in the U.S., and based on tons of research is bad for the economy. Another low for this administration.

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 1d

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21h

I don’t think it’s about Trump’s preferred policy. I think this kind of ham-handed approach by Trump towards the Fed may make Powell feel he needs to stay to defend the institution. It’s about independence.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 23h

And to be clear. By backfires, I mean, Powell may have been planning to end his time at the Fed when his Chair term ends. But this may make him feel the Fed is under such threat that he should stay, so the “backfires” is for Trump. Jay Powell doesn’t deserve this.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 23h

I assume that this is an attempt to make sure Powell resigns his Board seat when his term as chair is up. Trump wants another seat on the board. My view is Jay Powell is an honorable man & has plenty of resources to defend himself. My gut is this has no impact, or possibly backfires.

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 1d

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Kori Schake , and 87 more Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Kori Schake, Claudia Sahm, Edward Witten, Daniela Gabor, Christian Odendahl, Nandita Sharma, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Menzie Chinn, Axel Bruns, Will Jennings, Peter Thorne, Brendan Nyhan, David Dunning, Patrick A. Jansen, Alf Norkko, Joshua S. Weitz, Robert W. Wallace, Andrew Watt, David H. Kaye, Michael A. Clemens, David Feldman, Jonathan Wolff, Kevin Milligan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Richard Ashby Wilson, Caroline Krafft, Monika Schnitzer, David Rothschild, Guy Grossman, Ryan Enos, Shelly Lundberg, Ameet Sarpatwari, Michael Kevane, Iikka Korhonen, Trevon D. Logan, Laurent Pech, Robert C. Richards, Charles W. Smith, Lindsay M. Tedds, David L. Ortega, Rebecca Tushnet, David R. Miller, Silvia Secchi, Aaron Sojourner, Michael Zimmer, Holger Nehring, Gerald Friedman, Nazita Lajevardi, Scott A. Imberman, Robert B. Reich, Henry Farrell, Michael D. McDonald, Dean Eckles, Julia M. Wright, Brian Keegan, William Myers, Maria Abreu, Michael Müller, Michael Jones‐Correa, Kate Starbird, Shannon W. Anderson, Lisa Diedrich, Daniel Kuehn, Susan Strasser, Andrew Guthrie Ferguson, Alessandro Rigolon, Marcus Credé, Hisham Zerriffi, Simon Lester, Jay Shambaugh, Matthew Bodie, Tim Stephens, Peter Gratton, Aviel Roshwald, Martha Starr, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Farah Mendlesohn, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Michael Evans, Ryan Calo, Timothy D. McBride, Ryan Goodman, Jeroen Van Bouwel, Suzanne Mettler, Kimberly A. Clausing, Stuart Shapiro, David Darmofal, Peter Jacobs

Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 1d

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

When Volatile Work Schedules Meet SNAP Work Requirements

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 3d

The WH chief of staff once declined to hear a night before data briefing (and this was for third estimate of GDP) because he had a call with a reporter later and didn’t want any chance he accidentally said something (or could be construed to have) that leaked the numbers.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 3d

When I was at the CEA, there was a time the WH and CEA agreed to not give the President the jobs numbers until later in the evening bc he had a speech that night and we didn’t want anyone to think he had tipped the numbers. Media cared and actually asked if he had known them.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 3d

There are bigger breaches of norms, institutions, and laws recently, but this is illegal for a reason. The idea that talking to or following the President on media gets you market moving info ahead of time is wrong. Other administrations have gone to great lengths to avoid even a hint of impropriety

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 3d

Holy cow: TRUMP LEAKED THIS MORNING'S PAYROLL NUMBERS.

At 8:20pm last night he posted a photo of a briefing he received from his CEA. It reveals market-moving numbers that were officially released at 8:30am this morning.

(Note: CEA receives the data—confidentially—on Thursday evening.)

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller , and 5 more Richard S.J. Tol, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller, Scott A. Imberman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Matthew Lebo, Jay Shambaugh, David Darmofal

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 3d

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Stephen D. Murphy, Jay Shambaugh

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 7d

New at Can We Still Govern: @agpines.bsky.social & @lizananat.bsky.social explain how the work volatility of low income service employees will make it hard for them to satisfy new SNAP/Medicaid work requirements, even when they work lots of hours. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/when-volat...

New policies put low income workers in jeopardy of losing vital supports

donmoynihan.substack.com

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 7d

1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...

Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland

The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.

abcnews.go.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 10d

Play from 0:55 open.spotify.com/episode/2sAg.... In case you missed it over the holidays, I was on monetary matters with Jack Farley. We talked about China’s economy, the problems with Trump’s tariff (and other) policies, and the economy more broadly.

China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh

Spotify video

open.spotify.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 19d

I sat in rooms debating how and if to use sanctions. With each use, you know you are incentivizing others to insulate themselves from the U.S. economy and system. You balance this with gains to national interest from using them. No national interest offset anymore, just damage to us over time.

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 19d

12/In the US, it is unclear what national interest is being served by sanctioning EU officials. Increasingly, it looks like hyper elites (think Big Tech) is driving the bus. The result: an acceleration in the breakdown of transatlantic relations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1

www.cambridge.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 19d

This whole thread (which stretches back a few weeks) is worth reading.

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 19d

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1

www.cambridge.org

Reposted by Simon Lester, Jay Shambaugh

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 19d

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core

Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1

www.cambridge.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 25d

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/h... the demonization of transgender individuals by this administration is abhorrent. And if you don’t think it impacts you, ask yourself what marginalized group would the people currently in charge not endanger to get more power.

Trump Moves to End Gender-Related Care for Minors, Threatening Hospitals That Offer It

Meet the Politician the AI Industry Is Trying to Stop

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 25d

Highly recommend this episode from @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social . Even if you think you hear / read too much about AI these days, it is both a really fun chat and more importantly one of the better discussions of the practicalities of regulating AI I’ve heard.

Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 25d

MEET THE POLITICIAN THE AI INDUSTRY WANTS TO STOP

On the new episode we talk to NY Assemblyman Alex Bores about why a brand new pro-AI super PAC is trying to stop him from securing the nomination in the Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 12/18/2025 · 47m

podcasts.apple.com

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 25d

Meet the Politician the AI Industry Is Trying to Stop

Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 12/18/2025 · 47m

podcasts.apple.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Dec 3

I’ve seen it said we need more frivolous dialogue on Bluesky to balance out all the politics. So, here’s my Spotify wrapped to start some music conversations. Lots of great music this year.

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · Dec 1

This is what I think the goods-producing sector in America is doing right now — “We now have a better handle on what tariffs are doing to our business, and in response we’re cutting staff and/or doing more offshoring”:

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 30

The Trump Administration is driving our allies away from us. This hurts diplomatically, but can be damaging to US businesses abroad. US tech firms are a key part of the economy. Reckless trade and foreign policy is endangering our firms long run potential.

Paris Marx @parismarx.com · Nov 25

“Our mid-term goal should be the complete phase-out of Microsoft products, including the Windows operating system. It’s easier than it sounds.”

A cross-party group of lawmakers are pushing for the European Parliament to get off US tech, starting with Microsoft.

Get us off Microsoft! Lawmakers press EU Parliament to change in-house IT.

“We cannot afford this level of dependence on foreign tech,” lawmakers say in letter obtained by POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 28

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... For 15 years, my family has bought our Xmas tree at the same local place. They give out branded mugs with the year and a fun design. We will not have a 2025 mug. Owner said high and uncertain tariffs made it impossible to plan and order ahead. Thanks tariffs

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 27

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Key quote here “How on earth is this in America’s interest?” It’s not. Damaging our ability to work with other countries for no reason. Awful.

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

Reposted by Bessma Momani

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 27

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Nov 27

Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Brian Levy, Jay Shambaugh

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Nov 27