Jay Shambaugh | Lightnews

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 4d

I’ve seen it said we need more frivolous dialogue on Bluesky to balance out all the politics. So, here’s my Spotify wrapped to start some music conversations. Lots of great music this year.

Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 7d

This is what I think the goods-producing sector in America is doing right now — “We now have a better handle on what tariffs are doing to our business, and in response we’re cutting staff and/or doing more offshoring”:

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 7d

The Trump Administration is driving our allies away from us. This hurts diplomatically, but can be damaging to US businesses abroad. US tech firms are a key part of the economy. Reckless trade and foreign policy is endangering our firms long run potential.

Paris Marx @parismarx.com · 12d

“Our mid-term goal should be the complete phase-out of Microsoft products, including the Windows operating system. It’s easier than it sounds.”

A cross-party group of lawmakers are pushing for the European Parliament to get off US tech, starting with Microsoft.

Get us off Microsoft! Lawmakers press EU Parliament to change in-house IT.

“We cannot afford this level of dependence on foreign tech,” lawmakers say in letter obtained by POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 9d

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... For 15 years, my family has bought our Xmas tree at the same local place. They give out branded mugs with the year and a fun design. We will not have a 2025 mug. Owner said high and uncertain tariffs made it impossible to plan and order ahead. Thanks tariffs

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 10d

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Key quote here “How on earth is this in America’s interest?” It’s not. Damaging our ability to work with other countries for no reason. Awful.

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

www.nytimes.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 11d

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 11d

Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

www.nytimes.com

Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 11d

Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026

www.nytimes.com

Paris Marx @parismarx.com · 12d

“Our mid-term goal should be the complete phase-out of Microsoft products, including the Windows operating system. It’s easier than it sounds.”

A cross-party group of lawmakers are pushing for the European Parliament to get off US tech, starting with Microsoft.

Get us off Microsoft! Lawmakers press EU Parliament to change in-house IT.

“We cannot afford this level of dependence on foreign tech,” lawmakers say in letter obtained by POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

Shawn Donnan @sdonnan.bsky.social · 12d

Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions

Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.

www.bloomberg.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 18d

Important piece from @msobel.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China’s rising CA surplus and the undervaluation of the RMB. All the attention right now is on US disruption of global trade. But important to remember the imbalance caused by China’s policies & implications for the rest of the world.

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 19d

Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇

Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...

It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF

The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.

www.omfif.org

msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 19d

Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇

Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...

It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF

The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.

www.omfif.org

The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · 20d

Raising revenue via tariffs is:
❌ inefficient
❌ ineffective
❌ regressive

Learn more from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social:

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 5

Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · Nov 5

This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · Nov 5

www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Opinion | Trump’s Blanket Tariffs Are a Bridge Too Far

The case against his use of IEEPA is powerful. The justices shouldn’t defer to presidential power.

www.wsj.com

Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · Nov 5

New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure)

#EconSky

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 4

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · Nov 4

One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.

But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · Oct 29

Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

Opinion | The Canadians Are Right About Reagan and Free Trade

www.nytimes.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Oct 22

I’ve been saying this to people too. The idea you want to be able to host a state dinner without putting a tent on the south lawn is reasonable. But tearing down the WH with no regards for historical preservation or involvement and funding from Congress is truly ridiculous.

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · Oct 22

The idea of renovating the East Wing into an event space isn't crazy per se, it's been floated before. But a serious version of it, along with doing it legally, would have kept the exterior size of it about the same. Not a massive boxy behemoth bigger than and looming over the White House proper.

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · Oct 22

There's a world where a president whose term overlaps with the 250th anniversary of independence announces that he wants a WH extension to celebrate. He goes to Congress and gets bipartisan buy-in. Maybe it's part of other big 250th projects with public-private funding. And it's popular. (1/2)

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · Oct 22

The idea of renovating the East Wing into an event space isn't crazy per se, it's been floated before. But a serious version of it, along with doing it legally, would have kept the exterior size of it about the same. Not a massive boxy behemoth bigger than and looming over the White House proper.

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · Oct 22

There's a world where a president whose term overlaps with the 250th anniversary of independence announces that he wants a WH extension to celebrate. He goes to Congress and gets bipartisan buy-in. Maybe it's part of other big 250th projects with public-private funding. And it's popular. (1/2)

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Oct 20

A few pictures I remember fondly from having a view that stared straight out at the east wing.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 26

My high school AP US history teacher taught us that John Adams was the most important person in the founding of our democracy because he lost to the opposition party and went home.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 21

You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · Sep 21

A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · Sep 21

A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 6

The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy

Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements

President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.

reut.rs

Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements

President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.

reut.rs

Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · Sep 2

#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:

❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"

Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · Aug 27

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · Aug 27

Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 26

Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.

Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

In the Matter of Lisa Cook

Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.

paulkrugman.substack.com

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