Jonathan Portes

@jdportes.bsky.social

64K followers 650 following 4.9K posts

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.

Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
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Jonathan Daniel Portes is a professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Source: Wikipedia

Political science 31%

Economics 28%

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2h

in part - also liberalised visa rules for work and study, esp care visa.

the key point is that all of these were specific visas, with clear rules, that people applied for and were granted.

Completely the opposite of open borders (or even free movement) and describing it as that is simply a lie.

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 2h

well, at least it's not a blatant and deliberate lie

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3h

As a simple matter of fact, it was controlled - people came on visas which had clear rules, and the peak was driven temporary factors;numbers fell, as predicted, when these receded. Facts matter and politicians shouldn't lie

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Tim Bale

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 4h

It is simply a lie to claim that the Conservative government (or any other UK government in recent history) oversaw 'an open borders experiment".

No excuse for the PM or Reed repeating this lie or for media not describing it as such.

Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic.bsky.social · 6h

“Robert Jenrick is the man who as Immigration Minister oversaw the open borders experiment that led to the biggest increase in illegal immigration in our country”

Labour's Steve Reed reacts to Robert Jenrick's decision to defect from the Conservatives to Reform UK

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 5h

So much in here that's so fascinating. But this, for me at least, really stood out:

"Nigel Farage, meanwhile, has stood – consistently, and often alone – for what’s needed. Ending mass migration. Cheap energy. Cutting waste and taxes and red tape."

Not a single solitary mention of #Brexit....

I’ve joined Reform, and you should too

The Conservative Party is broken. Nigel Farage is building a team of people that can finally deliver change to Britain

www.telegraph.co.uk

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

Vicky Pryce & @andyrossecon.bsky.social discuss their new book, "Mismanaged Decline" at @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social next Tuesday.

www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/mismanaged...

Mismanaged Decline: What politicians won’t tell you about the economy

Mismanaged Decline distils the lessons to be learned from the forces that have shaped the UK economy from the industrial revolution to today

www.eventbrite.co.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Tim Bale

Peter Stefanovic @peterstefanovic.bsky.social · 6h

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Michelle Everson

Lewis Goodall @lewisgoodall.com · 19h

Flying to Minneapolis tomorrow to cover the ICE raids for News Agents, what is unfolding and the politics which flows from it. If you’re there or know the city and know people/organisations we should be speaking to, please get in touch.
DMs open.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

I think it's extremely important to remember that the Tories were well on their way to becoming an ersatz populist radical right party long before Robert Jenrick got his hardman haircut and his fat-jabs and started banging on about immigration - and the slide won't necessarily stop now he's gone.

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 21h

Replacing an opportunist ethnonationalist bigot with a conviction one. Is that an upgrade?

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar.bsky.social · 21h

NEW: Kemi Badenoch confirms that Nick Timothy -Theresa May's former chief of staff at No 10 - will be the new shadow justice secretary.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Jonathan Hopkin , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Jonathan Hopkin, Stephen Jones

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar.bsky.social · 21h

NEW: Kemi Badenoch confirms that Nick Timothy -Theresa May's former chief of staff at No 10 - will be the new shadow justice secretary.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

As others have noted, Starmer gave two rather contradictory statements this morning that were evidently written by different members of his team. (Itself a mark of the lack of direction). Someone in Number 10 clearly likes the "open borders" line; someone else doesn't. And Starmer veers between them

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers

Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Labour can legitimately argue that the Conservatives' immigration policy was chaotic, cruel and cack-handed, but that's very different to Starmer's repeated claim that it operated "an open borders experiment". That claim is both false and actively dangerous.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 2 more Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Alison Phipps

Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 23h

Starmer keeps using this line, & it's bonkers.

Most importantly, it's untrue: the party that ended Free Movement, ran the "hostile environment" & made Suella Braverman Home Sec did not run "an experiment in open borders".

It's also politically mad. Voters who believe this will not vote for Starmer

"And this is what Keir Starmer’s press secretary has said about Robert Jenrick at the lobby briefing this morning.

[Highlighted] Robert Jenrick was the immigration minister in a government that presided over an open borders experiment [Highlighted], a health minister who left people stuck on waiting lists, and a Treasury minister during the worst decline in living standards on record.”

While Reform continues to welcome failed Tory retreads, this Labor government is putting the country back on track."

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 1d

If Jenrick was not in the party by the time of a future contest, the leading Conservative right-wing candidate seems to be Katie Lam (class of 2024) now!

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

Best outcome is Farage says no + Bobby J is forced to set up yet another "would you like some racism with that?" party causing further fragmentation on the right.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Patrick Dunleavy , and 4 more Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Patrick Dunleavy, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott, Nicolai von Ondarza, Pam Jarvis

Henry Zeffman @hzeffman.bsky.social · 1d

BREAKING Kemi Badenoch has sacked Robert Jenrick from the shadow cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership.

She says she was "presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" to Reform

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, exactly.

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

The headline result is that more students support free speech! The most concerning one lots apparently say Reform should be banned -is bizarre to the point of meaninglessness for the reason WonkHE points out. How would you interpret students who vote Reform saying it should be banned?

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

...what's the political economy scenario in which it gets cut back substantially? (Assuming healthy life expectancy continues to rise I assume retirement age will too, as it should, but I don't see cuts in it's value as either politically realistic or economically sensible/necessary)

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Assuming the UK remains a mixed economy/social market liberal democracy (I *hate* having to write that caveat!) I can't see how the state pension doesn't keep its value relative to both earnings/prices for the foreseeable (even if triple lock is tweaked/adjusted.

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

As this analysis explains, this *really* doesn't bear the weight you are putting on it here.

wonkhe.com/wonk-corner/...

41 per cent of Reform-voting undergraduates don't think Reform should be allowed to speak on campus

That's a bigger proportion than for the whole sample. Which is something of a mood.

wonkhe.com

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Were you around in the 1970s?

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Anand Menon

UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 1d

The 2024 general election was the first ever five-plus party competition and magnified the influence of Britain’s electoral system

But what are the consequences of the changes to the party landscape in the UK?

Join our panel of MPs and expert pollsters to find out 👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

UKICE Lunch Hour: Changing party politics in the UK - UK in a changing Europe

Join UK in a Chaging Europe online for a discussion on political fragmentation in the UK and what it means for our politics.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Agree with James here. Hooligan/racist fans is a 2nd order issue and hardly specific to this case.

The UK, and other advanced democracies, should be treating Israel as we did South Africa -economic sanctions and a sporting/cultural boycott.

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1d

If you want a sporting boycott of Israel I'm all for it. But we shouldnt have our Police or local politicians trying ti sneak one in via the back door

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1d

If you want a sporting boycott of Israel I'm all for it. But we shouldnt have our Police or local politicians trying ti sneak one in via the back door

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Jonathan Potts @uccellolirico.bsky.social · 1d

Will Musk's compromise on obscenity on X let him off the hook he ought to be on, but apparently isn't, over illegal racist and other free hate speech (see the tireless @sundersays.bsky.social passim)?

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

Margot Finn @eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 1d

'Obviously there’s endless fun to be had with what are, in the main, findings stretching the limits of significance. But as an illustration illuminating the confused ventriloquism of the student voice on culture wars issues by people who really should know better, it is difficult to match.'

41 per cent of Reform-voting undergraduates don't think Reform should be allowed to speak on campus

That's a bigger proportion than for the whole sample. Which is something of a mood.

wonkhe.com

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d

Indeed - when I read it, it was very obviously drawing heavily on what had happened in Syria. Now, however, I am sure it reads differently..

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Jonathan Hopkin

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 1d

Great piece on pressures on European state pension schemes including this chart showing comparative cost now and projection to 2070. UK costs relatively low in comparison to most others www.ft.com/content/9c3c...

Comparison of pension costs across European countries

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