Will Jennings📉🗳️
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drjennings.bsky.social
Will Jennings📉🗳️
@drjennings.bsky.social

I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, geography, place, trust. I run on espresso.

Political science 71%
Sociology 14%
Pinned

Reposted by Will Jennings

Time for day 2 of the "British General Election of 2024" advent calender. Who won & lost the campaign last summer? Which parties gained ground in polls? Who fell back? In the next post, we find out but first: here's a thread detailing how you can claim your discounted copy! bsky.app/profile/robf...
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
“Thousands of very competitive projects in areas like cancer, diabetes, aging, neurological disorders and public health improvements most like went unfunded in 2025.
Similarly, at the National Science Foundation, the roughly 3,000 fewer new grants encompassed reductions to every area of science”
The U.S. Is Funding Fewer Grants in Every Area of Science and Medicine
A quiet policy change means the government is making fewer bets on long-term science.
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Will Jennings

When I said "I authorize you to commit war crimes" my subordinates should've known I was joking because I'd never do that
Lol
NYT:
Five officials told us that Hegseth had nothing to do with the second strike

Washpost (which broke the story 2 days ago):
“This is ‘protect Pete’ bullshit,”
and
“It’s throwing us, the service members, under the bus.”

Reposted by Will Jennings

Government acts on commitment to put parents’ experiences at the heart of SEND reform through new public engagement campaign.
Government launches national conversation on SEND
Government acts on commitment to put parents’ experiences at the heart of SEND reform through new public engagement campaign.
www.gov.uk

Reposted by Will Jennings

that would be last Friday, so if we’re keeping score that’s now one public failed assassination plot and one public flouted ultimatum
ON CALL, TRUMP GAVE MADURO FRIDAY DEADLINE TO LEAVE VENEZUELA WITH HIS FAMILY - SOURCES
Kelly: He runs around on stage talking about lethality and the warrior ethos.. That’s not the message that should be coming from the Secretary of Defense… He runs around on a stage like he’s a 12 year old playing army. It’s embarrassing.
Good piece by @polphilpod.bsky.social at @theunpopulist.net. I think there is something to be said for distinguishing fascism proper from merely illiberal right-populism. And there's no plausible narrow and precise definition of "fascist" that Musk doesn't very obviously meet.
Even by a Strict Definition, Elon Musk Is a Fascist
He is weaponizing Tolkien to promote violence by ‘hard men’ against Asian immigrants
www.theunpopulist.net
Watched BBC 6 o clock news. Just a completely unserious broadcast. Chris Mason, acting like a children's entertainer, giving a prolonged impenetrable editorial. Not a whiff of informative content about the Budget or what it means for the country. Just playschool blah blah bollocks.
trump is the president in the sense that he holds the office but he very clearly isn't the president in the sense that he has basically relieved himself of its duties
Trump’s echo chamber:

Very little U.S travel

No rallies or contact with supporters

Right-wing media

Dinners with rich donors and billionaires

Truth Social

Lack of staff to tell him no www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
The Bubble-Wrapped President
Trump surrounds himself with those who flatter him in places where he is comfortable.
www.theatlantic.com
Trump’s echo chamber:

Very little U.S travel

No rallies or contact with supporters

Right-wing media

Dinners with rich donors and billionaires

Truth Social

Lack of staff to tell him no www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
The Bubble-Wrapped President
Trump surrounds himself with those who flatter him in places where he is comfortable.
www.theatlantic.com
talking to reporters last night, Trump claimed of Hegseth's double tap strike that "I don't know anything about it," then moments later claimed "I don't who you're talking about" when asked his plan to pardon the former Honduran president

Reposted by Will Jennings

Facebook is loaded with this stuff. "This video is created using AI, and the story is for your entertainment" is noted at the very bottom of a long, made-up post.

Why? Because people comment and like. They treat it as real even when they know it's fake. Look at those numbers. Dispiriting as hell.
“'Remove justice, and what are kingdoms but gangs of criminals on a large scale?' Augustine made this suggestion in The City of God. In the country of Trump, we’re getting a convincing demonstration. Justice has been removed and a gang of criminals are in charge."

www.thebulwark.com/p/sex-crimes...
Sex Crimes. State Crimes. War Crimes.
We’re detecting a pattern with this administration.
www.thebulwark.com

Reposted by Will Jennings

When I was at the BBC I struggled over things like writing “said” or “claimed” because one might come across as more partial. And somehow this gets published?

Some important insights on why tone is crucial in how we approach open science...
Great to see the record corrected, but I don't think Laura and David need to say "sorry."

The culture change I wish we could have: Understanding that we all make errors, and incrementally improving the processes of social science to make them rarer.

This doesn't happen through "blame and shame."
A thread about being wrong:

5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong.

This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?

I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.

A thread…🧵1/12
Rachel Reeves's "headroom" is based on:

-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
Feel like I'm going mad. The Budget's 'headroom' is based on frankly irresponsible and wildly optimistic claims about what Labour will do in the final year of the forecast, and on ignoring a bunch of upward pressures on spending, and the claim is that she was being exaggeratedly *pessimistic*?
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
Its possible to maintain fiscal position while somewhat reducing numbers (via greater selectivity) but Labour government's language about net 205k being too high has not been thought through - just repeating language of net 600k, net 400k, net 340k as it dropped lower, quicker than they anticipated

Reposted by Will Jennings

This isn't unusual in campaigns, to be honest. Voters' views abt party reputations form over many years and are hard to shift in the final few weeks. Which may call into question the wisdom of rash promises which, given the state of the public finances, were all but certain to bring headaches later

Reposted by Will Jennings

The whole argument over tax looks, from the perspective of the voter, like "a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Voters expected tax rises. On the whole, they accepted or even approved of this. Neither Labour pledges ruling out tax rises nor Tory "tax bombshell" attacks moved the dial.

Reposted by Will Jennings

See if you can spot Rachel Reeves' pledges ruling out rises in all the major taxes, and Rishi Sunak's supposedly hugely influential attacks on tax in the first debate. You will struggle. Neither had any discernable impact on voters' perceptions of the parties or their own preferences.

Reposted by Will Jennings

This graph shows what the public thought Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend on every day of the campaign, and what voters themselves preferred (black). The public expected tax rises from Lab, tax cuts from Cons, and what they themselves wanted was...tax rises (tho less than Lab)

Reposted by Will Jennings

Advent calendar door number 1 takes us back to the campaign last July. Both Labour and the Tories were very focussed on tax - both parties felt Labour were vulnerable to attacks on potential tax rises. But were they? Read on!