Tim Bale

@timbale.bsky.social

28K followers 1K following 3.6K posts

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com .. more

Videos

Timothy Paul Bale is an English political scientist who is professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.

Source: Wikipedia

Political science 83%

Sociology 6%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Tim Bale

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 8h

I don't think 'too many Tory defectors' is a significant problem for Reform. They have 4m people who have voted Farage 2-4 times locked down. Main 2029 targets are 5 million people who have not: mainly Tory 2024 Sunak > Farage voters + Tory 2019 voters who didn't vote in 2024 for Sunak or Farage

Reposted by Steve Peers, Tim Bale

Zoë Crowther @zoecrowther.bsky.social · 10h

There are now at least 365 UK MPs with accounts on Bluesky – more than half (56%) of all MPs

🔴 This includes nearly 70% of Labour MPs
🔶 Nearly 90% of Lib Dem MPs
🟢 All the 4 Green MPs

🔵 But only 5% of Conservative MPs
➡️ No Reform MPs

Zoë Crowther @zoecrowther.bsky.social · 3d

More MPs are coming off X and I assume that means they will be posting more on here

@politicshome.bsky.social has a handy list of all the MPs on Bluesky

Please point out anyone who is missing!

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 14h

France, making Southern Rail look good.

Jon Worth @jonworth.eu · 17h

Stuff goes wrong. This is a pic of the accident - this will have destroyed a load of track. No trains AT LEAST until Sunday

But if you want people to take the train, they have to be able to rely on it

Going "sorry, the line is too busy for us to organise buses" is an abdication of responsibility

Freight wagons leaning to the side, derailed

Reposted by Stephen Jones

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 14h

The predictability - it's so crushing.

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar.bsky.social · 15h

❤️‍🔥Tory sources confirm that Nadhim Zahawi made approaches to senior members of Kemi Badenoch's team about getting a peerage just weeks before defecting to Reform UK - but was turned down.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15h

We think (in work w/@martamiori.bsky.social) viability is the name of the game! How voters make sense of which party in their bloc can defeat a party in the other.

The big question: how voters make sense of this in our electoral system, whether there is a return to the major parties because of it.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 16h

And surely helps Reform demonstrate 'viability', which as Jane sets out in this great piece is so important to them now:

Reposted by Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott , and 2 more Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott, Tim Bale, Björn Heile

Pippa Crerar @pippacrerar.bsky.social · 15h

❤️‍🔥Tory sources confirm that Nadhim Zahawi made approaches to senior members of Kemi Badenoch's team about getting a peerage just weeks before defecting to Reform UK - but was turned down.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 17h

Aha - at. Mind you, is now par for the course to run a video of your star-signing before they appear on stage?

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 17h

Fond memories of Hezza vs Maggie.

Losing Britain’s last helicopter factory is strategic folly

Britain may send thousands of troops to Ukraine as a peacekeeping force, but they could be forced to take the bus, given that the country’s last military helicopter factory is on the brink of closure....

unherd.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

Jon Worth @jonworth.eu · 17h

Reposted by Tim Bale, Constance Bantman

James Ball @jamesrball.com · 17h

Feels too like there’s a serious danger for Reform in accepting too many Tory defections.

Hard to accuse the Conservatives of being the same old faces who screwed everything up in the first place when half of those faces are on your team now.

John Oxley @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 18h

This feels like a sign of what I think might be another trend of this year - people giving up on saving the Conservatives and believing they can shape and/or politically profit from the Tories being subsumed into Reform.

Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 18h

Nadhim Zahawi being unveiled as Reform’s newest defector

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 17h

Why wasn't he actually there instead of on video - anyone happen to know?

Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 18h

Nadhim Zahawi being unveiled as Reform’s newest defector

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 17h

And an article on @conservativehome.bsky.social

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18h

There's always a tweet (or two) 👏 @jaheale.bsky.social

James Heale @jaheale.bsky.social · 18h

Old tweets being deleted now

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18h

Not much that genuinely surprises me these days (although when I think about some of his past moves, maybe not so much). But this did.

Former Tory Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi defects to Reform

Zahawi, who is no longer an MP, said that he is convinced that 'Britain needs Reform'

inews.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Bale, Stephen Ryan

James Heale @jaheale.bsky.social · 18h

Old tweets being deleted now

Reposted by Will Jennings, Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18h

I've long disagreed with view that Con>Reform defections are somehow toxic for Reform. I doubt many know Zahawi's controversies. I think its much more about (powerfully, frankly) signalling and reconfirming that Reform has become a natural home for disgruntled Tories, as has been true since 2024.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18h

This'll make you chuckle, @jwbrown.bsky.social (jicymi)

Thatcher-on-Thames

Docklands is a corner of England that is forever Maggieland

www.economist.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Tim Bale

Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 18h

Nadhim Zahawi being unveiled as Reform’s newest defector

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18h

Fellow lecturers: there's an off-the-shelf British Politics essay/exam question right there.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 18h

Print, radio and television all changed politics fundamentally. Why would social media be any different?

Reposted by Tim Bale

Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 18h

"Born into an illiterate Catalan peasant family, he started working in a Barcelona bicycle repair shop at the age of 13. [He] eventually went to university, but not before teaching his own parents to read and write."

A story of power, Opus Dei and Spain - by Barney Jopson www.ft.com/content/708b...

The secretive powerbroker with a tight grip on corporate Spain

Isidro Fainé runs the Caixa Foundation but the 83-year-old’s age and dominance are causing disquiet

www.ft.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 18h

From November 2025 -

Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB

- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of political scandals on perceptions of leaders, focusing on the UK and Scotland. The study explores themes like containment and contrast in institutional reactions to such scandals.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 18h

Print, radio and television all changed politics fundamentally. Why would social media be any different?

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18h

Good interview with my local MP (pictured here at Holywell) @joshbabarinde.bsky.social by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social

Josh Babarinde: Lib Dems need to fight “for the soul of our country”

The MP for Eastbourne and new Liberal Democrat president on how his party is taking on Reform

www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

Glen O'Hara @gsoh31.bsky.social · 19h

When I was growing up there was an active IRA bombing campaign, London's crime and homelessness were exploding out of control, the schools were struggling to stay afloat and people were fleeing the capital as fast as poss. The portrait of London we see now is the product of deep historical amnesia.

lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 22h

I grew up in London and I'm back there now and I can honestly say that I *feel* the difference in crime rate compared to when I was young. It is very strange to me that Londoners report feeling like the city is dangerous, it absolutely feels safe to me. I like it!

www.ft.com/content/52b0...

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/52b03928-9eae-4392-81d2-b6b302086706?emailId=bd52347a-a033-49da-85ff-667bd3430c5a&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

The Metropolitan Police commissioner said in an interview that the reality was very different, as he heralded new data showing London’s homicide rate at the lowest on record.

Ninety-seven people were murdered in 2025, according to Met data, the lowest level since 2014 when London’s population was smaller. The homicide rate of 1.1 per 100,000 was the lowest since comparable records began in 1997, he told the Financial Times.

“We are going to make sure everyone, Londoners and visitors, know this is an extraordinarily safe global city,” he said. “London is safer than every US state, or thereabouts, let alone the big cities.”

Rowley pointed to homicide rates of 2.8 in New York and 11.7 in Chicago, while saying London also compared well with European cities such as Berlin at 3.2 and Milan at 1.6.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h

Here are the 'highlights' of the videos shown at Fidesz Congress by Viktor Orbán from far-right allies across Europe and the globe supporting him in the election.

Note again how these stretch from ECR/Meloni over others from 'Patriots for Europe' to the AfD/ESN. Big one missing is Trump.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 19h

Little noticed point - but an important one. 👏 @morganj0nes.bsky.social

Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 20h

I've spent quite a long time looking into the current system by which the Labour Party grants votes to affiliates in its internal elections. It's more interesting than it sounds, and may be very consequential re, who will be the next Prime Minister.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Union members could decide who the next Labour leader is

With membership figures plummeting, affiliates take on a new importance

www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 20h

Union members could decide who the next Labour leader is

With membership figures plummeting, affiliates take on a new importance

www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 21h

I HAVE FOUND THE CAUSE AND THE SOLUTION #banfootball

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 21h

Fortunately it's impossible to believe that Trump would ever use that power.

Jack Kessler @jackkessler.bsky.social · 21h

In this case, direct executive control over interest rates would create an unavoidable conflict of interest, granting the president the ability to manipulate borrowing costs for political and/or personal gain.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Dr. Jeevun Sandher MP @jeevunsandher.bsky.social · 21h

Manufacturing employment continues to fall as machines keep getting better.

The era of post-war mass employment manufacturing ended a long time ago. It is not coming back.

Add to Home Screen

Light up
your news

Add to Home Screen

Light upyour news

Sign in to Lightnews

Sign up to start reading

Connect Bluesky

Connect with Bluesky

Light up
your news