Tim Bale
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timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale
@timbale.bsky.social
28K followers 1K following 3.4K posts

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com .. more

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Timothy Paul Bale is an English political scientist who is professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.

Source: Wikipedia
Political science 83%
Sociology 6%
Posts Replies Media Videos

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
Accidental Partridge?

Lowe said his party would be "completely focused on doing what is right for Great Yarmouth, not what is right for Norwich or London".
Rupert Lowe launches new political party for Great Yarmouth
Great Yarmouth First will represent needs of the town only, says founder Rupert Lowe.
www.bbc.co.uk

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
MPs need to get over themselves and get this in the bill as a matter of urgency - unless they can somehow bring in a ban before the next election by other means.
UK ministers aim to ban cryptocurrency political donations over anonymity risks
Crackdown, which will be blow to Nigel Farage’s Reform party, not likely to be ready for elections bill in new year
www.theguardian.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
Agree - it won't be easy to carve stuff up between the two parties if there's a formal electoral pact, which is why a bite-the-bullet merger might make more sense in the end.

Reposted by Philip Cowley

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
If Labour MPs think abstaining or voting against a particular measure will save their seats, I suspect my @qmulsse.bsky.social colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social has a bridge to sell them.
Rachel Reeves hit by Labour rural rebellion over inheritance tax on farmers
A number of Labour MPs in rural seats declined to back the government's move to impose inheritance tax on farmers, but just one voted against.
news.sky.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
You are, of course, right; but there are big advantages in not splitting the vote on the right to the extent that clearly cost the Tories in 2024, especially if they can recover somewhat before 28/9 and given the very narrow majorities many Labour MPs are sitting on.

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
You may well be right but I'm not sure that either of the big two can hope to win an election outright anymore. The game is now just about getting into/staying in government - and if that means being a junior partner, at least initially, then so be it. But that's just my guess, of course!

Reposted by Simon Wren‐Lewis

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
"This government...reversed the additional austerity the last government had pencilled in, but once you allow for trends in health spending & debt interest the...reduction in the level of public service provision that we saw under 14 years of Tory rule has not & will not be significantly reversed."
sjwrenlewis.bsky.social Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 23h
New post: The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-...
What is missing is any sense that the government has a long term plan and is putting in place the resources to achieve it.
The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
My posts come out on a Tuesday and Budgets are on a Wednesday. Not great timing, which is why in the past I’ve often done special posts on...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
They certainly have a greater 'will to power'.

Reposted by Tim Bale

helenbarrett.bsky.social
Helen Barrett @helenbarrett.bsky.social · 1h
No one will never out-Christmas Nancy.
Ronald and Nancy Reagan in front of an enormous and preposterous Christmas tree in the Blue Room at the Whitehouse in 1987.

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
Wait, what? I thought the government had knackered the housing market?
UK house prices edge higher despite Budget uncertainty
Bigger than expected rise takes average property cost to £272,998
www.ft.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
Why anyone's surprised by this, I've no idea. One thing many of us sad enough to study British Politics for a living agree on is that, for all the fragmentation, voters are sorting themselves into two blocs. In that context, 'unite the right' makes sense, especially if the left doesn't follow suit.
Farage tells donors he expects Reform UK will do an election deal with Tories
Rightwing populist party could pursue a merger or pact with the Conservatives
www.ft.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1h
Great article from @amyborrett.ft.com. But it does make me wonder again why there was zero national media coverage when the University of Brighton closed down its big, decades-old campus in Eastbourne. Now of course, it would make a great case study for a journalist of the economic/cultural impact.
Essex university to cut 400 jobs as overseas student numbers plummet
Roles to be lost are part of wave of redundancy programmes across UK’s higher education sector
www.ft.com

Reposted by Tim Bale, Philip Cowley

quackometer.bsky.social
quackometer.bsky.social @quackometer.bsky.social · 9h
Apropos of nothing, when I was eight my parents moved house. It was half way through school nativity rehearsals and for six months after I thought one of the older boys was called Narrator

Reposted by Tim Bale

nickgibbs.bsky.social
Nick Gibbs @nickgibbs.bsky.social · 10h
Not sure she had the lead role in her penultimate year primary nativity either, as claimed. Yes she was Mary but that year the narrator had more lines and thus was quite clearly the lead, not Reeves.

Reposted by Tim Bale

bengoldacre.bsky.social
Ben Goldacre @bengoldacre.bsky.social · 12h
I bought a £150 thing from France. I'm truly delighted to pay £40 tax on import: that's for schools and hospitals. The £11 handling fee for DHL, on the other hand, is purely to cover the expensive slow additional bureaucratic admin needlessly created for us all by Brexit voters. Merry Xmas!

Reposted by Philip Cowley

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 13h
"Jenrick is an unlikely champion of civil liberties or human rights, and his appeal to Magna Carta had a distinct air of Tony Hancock. For the Shadow Justice Secretary, every day is a leadership bid, and his reply to Lammy was no exception, magnificently histrionic." @roberthutton.co.uk spot-on.
How comfortable is wafer thin? | Robert Hutton | The Critic Magazine
“I wouldn’t say that we were at war with the Treasury,” Professor David Miles, of the Office for Budget Responsibility, was giving a demonstration of the British art of slipping a knife between the…
thecritic.co.uk

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde , and 21 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13h
Trump dozes while Marco Rubio speaks to him directly next to him. Just insane optics.

Reposted by Tim Bale, Christina Pagel

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 22h
Does he also believe in the Tooth Fairy? That, and other questions raised by this excellent piece: www.ft.com/content/cc83...

Reposted by Tim Bale

jonworth.eu
Jon Worth @jonworth.eu · 23h
Why do trains in the UK cost so much at peak hours?

It's mostly NOT due to privatisation

It is because the UK state has not invested enough in its network to up capacity, and even today does not subsidise operations very much

Want to be like 🇨🇭, 🇦🇹, 🇳🇱?

POUR IN MORE MONEY

Reposted by Tim Bale, Jonathan Hopkin

sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 23h
New post: The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-...
What is missing is any sense that the government has a long term plan and is putting in place the resources to achieve it.
The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
My posts come out on a Tuesday and Budgets are on a Wednesday. Not great timing, which is why in the past I’ve often done special posts on...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Joanna Bryson, Dorothy Bishop , and 36 more

harrywallop.co.uk
Harry Wallop @harrywallop.co.uk · 23h
Great culture can save lives. Literally.

Amazing letter in today’s @thetimes.com about Tom Stoppard

Reposted by Tim Bale

jeevunsandher.bsky.social
Dr. Jeevun Sandher MP @jeevunsandher.bsky.social · 23h
The OBR has been making us poorer for over a decade.

They've underestimated the impact of public spending (cuts) on growth.

That has helped lead to a doom loop:

Cuts -> Lower growth -> lower revenues -> missed borrowing target -> more cuts etc.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
The OBR is pushing us into a doom loop
It has been making us poorer for 14 years
www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

chanret.bsky.social
Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 1d
Looks like the UK has new competition for most bureaucratic course review process...
cantb.bsky.social Brendan Cantwell @cantb.bsky.social · 1d
TX Tech has a flow chat for guidance on what can be taught in the university system. Two things:
1. Very little content seems to be permitted. This is partisan control of the curriculum.
2. I would not enjoy teaching under these conditions, but I really would not want to be a Chair or Dean.
Flow chart from TX Tech memo showing that most class materials must be reviewed by chair, dean, and provost, and that all curricular material must be disclosed

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1d
"Addressing the issue of economic insecurity could stem the tide of Labour defections across the political spectrum. A hardline approach to immigration is likely to only appease the smaller group who are going to Reform (around 10% of 2024 Labour voters)."

Not sure it will even appease even them!
Why economic insecurity – not immigration – should be Labour’s top electoral priority
Feelings of economic insecurity serve as a signal of poor government performance.
theconversation.com

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Brian A. Nosek, Brendan Nyhan , and 33 more

cantb.bsky.social
Brendan Cantwell @cantb.bsky.social · 1d
TX Tech has a flow chat for guidance on what can be taught in the university system. Two things:
1. Very little content seems to be permitted. This is partisan control of the curriculum.
2. I would not enjoy teaching under these conditions, but I really would not want to be a Chair or Dean.
Flow chart from TX Tech memo showing that most class materials must be reviewed by chair, dean, and provost, and that all curricular material must be disclosed

Reposted by Tim Bale, Philip Cowley

robertsaunders.bsky.social
Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 1d
On 10 December, 18:00, join @timbale.bsky.social @stephenkb.bsky.social @rmcunliffe.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social to discuss "The British General Election of 2024".

Join us to explore how the election was won, where it was lost & what's changed since July 2024.
www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/events/m...

Reposted by Tim Bale

jaheale.bsky.social
James Heale @jaheale.bsky.social · 1d
They think it's all OBR... it is now:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/rich...
Richard Hughes quits as OBR chairman
Richard Hughes, the watchdog's chairman, has tonight fallen on his sword and accepted responsibility for the data leak.
www.spectator.co.uk

Reposted by Tim Bale

rmcunliffe.bsky.social
Rachel Cunliffe @rmcunliffe.bsky.social · 1d
"We will have an economy in which the full-time work of some young people will pay less than the state pensions of retirees, and yet it is the young people who will be taxed."

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Rachel Reeves mugs the youth
Young workers are coughing up for state pensions
www.newstatesman.com

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1d
This is also Labour hoist with its own petard: Sunak in the 1st TV debate of 2024 majored on tax rises; Labour decided the best way to counter that attack was not detailed rebuttal but shouting 'lies'. As long as 'lies' & 'Reeves' are in the headlines for a few days, that's job done for the Tories.

Reposted by Tim Bale

bylinetimes.bsky.social
Byline Times @bylinetimes.bsky.social · 1d
🔴Trump Envoy Has Financial Ties With Former Adviser to Putin’s ‘Money Man’ Now Leading Kremlin Peace Talks

Steve Witkoff’s real-estate empire is bankrolled by a former adviser to Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and a key architect of Moscow’s Ukraine negotiations
Trump Envoy Has Financial Ties With Former Adviser to Putin’s ‘Money Man’ Now Leading Kremlin Peace Talks
Steve Witkoff’s real-estate empire is bankrolled by a former adviser to Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and a key architect of Moscow’s Ukraine negotiations
bylinetimes.com