Elizabeth Saunders

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 5h

Except insofar as he seems to be a voice against using large-scale force. Or maybe that's just in Ukraine?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 6h

Also, no Vance?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 6h

Team of Rival Murderers

Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 7h

Trump to hold a meeting on Venezuela this evening with Rubio, Hegseth and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CNN reports.

Merriam-Webster @merriam-webster.com · 6h

"We will call the 12th month of the year 'December'... which means 'tenth month.'"

Screenshot of SNL's George Washington sketch from 10/28/23 with Nate Bargatze

Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 7h

Trump to hold a meeting on Venezuela this evening with Rubio, Hegseth and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CNN reports.

Diana B. Greenwald @dbgreenwald.bsky.social · 16h

”‘They want the international stabilizing force to come into Gaza and restore, quote unquote, law and order and disarm any resistance,‘ a senior official in Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. ‘So that’s the problem. Nobody wants to do that.’” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

International force at heart of Trump’s Gaza plan struggles to find takers

The U.S. administration is trying to drum up troop commitments, but concerns are mounting over whether foreign soldiers would have to use force against Gazans.

www.washingtonpost.com

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 18h

Was thinking audience costs. Not sure they really matter to an already-unpopular and shameless Trump who might not want the belligerence costs his base could inflict if he attacks. @jkertzer.bsky.social thoughts?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

See second post

David Kaye @davidakaye.bsky.social · 20h

totally share this sense of the crazy.

it's also important to recognize that the administration is *already* in violation of the UN Charter: the military buildup & intimidation clearly constitute a threat of force ag the territorial integrity or political independence of Venezuela.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Not a Latin America specialist, but still kind of amazed at the incoherence of signals coming out of DC amid open-source reporting on flights/airspace and on countries evacuating citizens from Venezuela. Is attacking a live option? What's the offramp/deal for Maduro? Who's in charge of US policy?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

Mini-thread in which I convince myself that maybe we aren't going to war against Venezuela and maybe the odds were not that high to begin with?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

One of his (very few) longheld beliefs is not starting forever wars, which VZ could become. He only does bombing, and only when it seems easy/a "winner" (Iran '25 and he was uncertain til the end). To stop VZ, show a boots on the ground option. He's no dove but starting a brand new war seems...odd.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

Always a risk and nothing would surprise me. But this is a huge country.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

Dunno, starting to wonder if odds were ever that high that we were going to start a full blown attack on Venezuela. Take that prediction for what it's worth in light of my very wrong prediction about Iran! But there, Israel cleared the way for him to think it would be easy. Harder to do that here.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

So much so that it's hard to think about how Maduro updates his beliefs here. This isn't calculated madman theory (doesn't work, hard to pull off, see @proftalmadge.bsky.social on this). Leaves a lot of offramps he can spin. Caught bluffing, yes, egg on Rubio's face, yes, but does Trump care?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

One of his (very few) longheld beliefs is not starting forever wars, which VZ could become. He only does bombing, and only when it seems easy/a "winner" (Iran '25 and he was uncertain til the end). To stop VZ, show a boots on the ground option. He's no dove but starting a brand new war seems...odd.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

Damn right

Skye @simplyskye.bsky.social · 1d

Mark Kelly: “Pete Hegseth is not a serious person. He’s unqualified for this job. I think he is the least qualified Secretary of Defense in the history of our country by far. & this President thinks he can bully & intimidate people? He’s not gonna stop me from speaking out & holding him accountable”

Senator Mark Kelly outside of the Senate Chamber at the US Capitol

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 20h

As in, I wonder if the odds of war have been very low all along. Then again, I said on a public webinar that Trump wouldn't bomb Iran 2 days before he did just that, so my wondering doesn't get very far!

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 21h

I actually wonder if any real war plan has been presented to him. As opposed to extreme plans that he'd never choose.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 21h

One weird trick diplomacy. You'd think we'd have learned, but you'd be wrong.

Todd Stein @toddstein.bsky.social · 21h

There are several Chalabi-types whispering in the eager ears of Rubio and the Miami crowd that this “one neat trick” is going to to be the thing that incite the people to rise up against Maduro. And when that doesn’t work they escalate to the next thing, like the NFZ.

Todd Stein @toddstein.bsky.social · 21h

There are several Chalabi-types whispering in the eager ears of Rubio and the Miami crowd that this “one neat trick” is going to to be the thing that incite the people to rise up against Maduro. And when that doesn’t work they escalate to the next thing, like the NFZ.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 21h

Nothing like watching a rare real-world test of a cottage-industry theory unfold, while the fate of millions hangs in the balance.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Well ok then

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 22h

President Donald Trump said Sunday that people shouldn’t read much into a social media post where he said Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed

Trump Downplays Venezuelan Airspace Threat as US Mulls New Steps

President Donald Trump said Sunday that people shouldn’t read much into a social media post where he said Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed.

bloom.bg

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 22h

President Donald Trump said Sunday that people shouldn’t read much into a social media post where he said Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed

Trump Downplays Venezuelan Airspace Threat as US Mulls New Steps

President Donald Trump said Sunday that people shouldn’t read much into a social media post where he said Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed.

bloom.bg

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

On the plus side, the range of outcomes is so big it includes almost any concession allowing Trump to TACO and take those naval assets home!

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

That's the thing. In Iraq, it was clear that admin was very likely to attack (you could assign a high probability). Starting a war like this, even if just bombing, is bigger than anything Trump has done; maybe real odds were always low. But no steps to bolster signals. It's incoherent, not madman.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Or, is either of these logics too strategic for this lot? Always a possibility!

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Also trying to think through whether Hegseth news makes attack more or less likely (to be clear, none of it changes the illegality of the boat strikes and the double-tap being a war crime if he ordered it). Does it make Trump more likely to back off, or to attack so it gets lost in "we're at war"?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Miller? Also, would we know in this info environment if Trump had authorized an attack? Does Trump even know what all the options are?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Yes, very, very different.

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Are we about to attack Venezuela? I have questions 👇

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Not a Latin America specialist, but still kind of amazed at the incoherence of signals coming out of DC amid open-source reporting on flights/airspace and on countries evacuating citizens from Venezuela. Is attacking a live option? What's the offramp/deal for Maduro? Who's in charge of US policy?

Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 22h

Not a Latin America specialist, but still kind of amazed at the incoherence of signals coming out of DC amid open-source reporting on flights/airspace and on countries evacuating citizens from Venezuela. Is attacking a live option? What's the offramp/deal for Maduro? Who's in charge of US policy?

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