Elizabeth N. Saunders
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profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders
@profsaunders.bsky.social
19K followers 3.3K following 2.5K posts
Professor of Political Science & Director of the Saltzman Institute of War & Peace Studies, Columbia. New Book: The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691215808/the-insiders-game
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profsaunders.bsky.social
When 2-factor authentication is just too much of a pain
“Afterward, one European official asked Witkoff to start speaking with allies over the secure fixed line Europe’s heads of state use to conduct sensitive diplomatic conversations. Witkoff demurred, as he traveled too much to use the cumbersome system.”
November 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
I mean…
“In the days after Alaska, a European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials, who were shocked by the contents: Inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the Trump administration had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic. “
November 29, 2025 at 5:10 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Aside from all the current damage Trump is raining down on the country and the world, the long-term implications are bleak. Even if a future president wanted to return the US to a leadership role, the economic and political foundations are structurally weakened. 7/
diminished.71 But the implications of an unconstrained United States go beyond whether it is willing to engage in this kind of international leadership in the future and how other countries might react. Unlike the transition after Trump’s first term, a future president who wants to recommit to a strong US role in global governance may find the country lacks the capacity to do so. If the behaviors that led to the United States’ sterling reputation for sovereign debt repayment are undermined by this instability and unpredictability, the foundation of US economic and military power may crumble.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
What does it mean? Well, if you take all the findings on democratic advantages since the end of the Cold War and invert them, that's a good guide to the new world we're in. 6/
To understand the implications of these changes for global governance and order, consider the thought experiment of inverting prior scholars’ findings about the democratic advantage and domestic audience constraint. For example, the inverse of Cowhey’s “credibility advantage” suggests that in the absence of domestic political institutions, US commitments to multilateral institutions of any kind are unreliable. Martin’s work, inverted, suggests that without legislative or other constraints on the executive, multilateral economic sanctions will be further undermined. Lake’s early work on the democratic peace suggests that an unconstrained United States will be more likely to become involved in wars it is less likely to win, and potentially more expansionist in ambition. Leeds’s emphasis on democratic alliance reliability can be inverted to suggest that the United States will now be a less reliable partner. Similarly, the consistency of foreign policy commitments will also be undermined.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
It is not just global retrenchment, it's the ability to provide public goods at home that have spillovers abroad. Science & tech, defense, state capacity, credible commitments -- the things that we thought democracies had advantages in, gone. 3/
Abstract: Any theoretically informed predictions about the future of international order and global governance must reckon with the power and intentions of the United States.We argue that fundamental changes in the nature of domestic audience constraint within many democracies, and the United States in particular, undermine both the willingness and the capability of the United States to continue its role as the underwriter of international order and global governance. A US government unbound by domestic constraint will have difficulty building broad coalitions to solve national and international problems because it will have reduced incentives to invest in public goods, including national defense, science and technology, and future economic prosperity; reduced barriers to corruption that undermines the quality of and trust in US capabilities; and reduced state capacity, including the capacity to finance wars and other long-term international commitments. We argue that three trends were especially relevant in reshaping domestic audience constraint: information fragmentation, extreme polarization, and a global threat environment that facilitated executive power concentration. Together they reduce the costs and risks for leaders to escape domestic audience constraints, weakening the institutional and accountability mechanisms that give democracies advantages in the international system. Though these trends affect many democracies, the undermining of US domestic constraint is particularly consequential because the United States shaped and buttressed the current system. An unconstrained United States likely means a less cooperative and less predictable global order, irrevocably altering the post-1945 system.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
And here's Rubio, in December 2018 calling for punishing Saudi Arabia with more than a "diplomatic slap on the wrist." He's now the nation's top diplomat, maybe he could do something about that? A reporter should ask him.

www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/p...
“We lose our credibility and our moral standing to criticize (Russian President Vladimir) Putin for murdering people, (Syrian President Bashar Al-)Assad for murdering people, (Venezuelan President Nicolas) Maduro in Venezuela for murdering people,” Rubio said. “We can’t say anything about that if we allow Saudi Arabia to do it and all we do is a diplomatic slap on the wrist.”
November 18, 2025 at 8:17 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
And here's Graham threatening to hold up legislative business until CIA director Gina Haspel testified.

www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/u...
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and a stalwart supporter of President Trump in recent months, vowed to freeze the administration’s legislative priorities until Ms. Haspel spoke to the Senate. “I’m talking about any key vote. Anything that you need me for to get out of town, I ain’t doing it until we hear from the C.I.A.,” Mr. Graham told reporters after the 90-minute briefing at the Capitol. He also promised there would “be no business as usual with Saudi Arabia” if American intelligence confirmed that Prince Mohammed was involved in Mr. Khashoggi’s killing. One United States official said that was precisely why the administration did not want Ms. Haspel to participate in the briefing.
November 18, 2025 at 8:17 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
There’s a lot of evidence that diversionary war is not really a thing. But if I were Venezuela right now…

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
“The only thing missing is a strategic explanation from the Trump administration that would clarify why the United States is amassing such a large force. Mr. Hegseth's posting on X was only the latest in a series of statements from administration officials that, at best, are in tension with one another. Some are outright contradictory.”
November 15, 2025 at 9:38 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The quotes in this story...this is not a video game.
“Maduro is about to find himself trapped and might soon discover that he cannot flee the country even if he decided to,” the source said. “What’s worse for him, there is now more than one general willing to capture and hand him over, fully aware that one thing is to talk about death, and another to see it coming.” Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312722642.html#storylink=cpy
October 31, 2025 at 12:56 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Sign with Trump hair saying “It’s you, hi, I’m the problem it’s you”
October 18, 2025 at 5:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Sign saying “ICE belongs in Antarctica” with a penguin
October 18, 2025 at 5:27 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The masterstroke was to force Netanyahu to apologize to the Qataris. Not just the call, but releasing news of the apology, with a photo. Kudos to whoever thought of that. It was a costly signal from Bibi and showed Trump was seriously pressuring Israel. 5/
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Photo released by the White House showing Netanyahu on the call, apologizing to the Qataris, while Trump balances the phone on his lap.
October 15, 2025 at 3:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
So much for the foreign policy justification of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, whose interviews are extensive quoted in the opinion:
"It is also arbitrary or capricious because it reverses prior policy without reasoned explanation or consideration of reliance interests, and is based on statutes that have never been used in this way."
September 30, 2025 at 6:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
This does not mince words about how Rubio and Noem misused the powers of their office to chill free speech. Undiplomatic and now, ruled unconstitutional.
For all these reasons, this Court finds as fact and concludes as matter of law that Secretaries Noem and Rubio and their several agents and subordinates acted in concert to misuse the sweeping powers of their respective offices to target noncitizen pro-Palestinians for deportation primarily on account of their First Amendment protected political speech. They did so in order to strike fear into similarly situated non-citizen proPalestinian individuals, pro-actively (and effectively) curbing lawful pro-Palestinian speech and intentionally denying such individuals (including the plaintiffs here) the freedom of speech that is their right. Moreover, the effect of these targeted deportation proceedings continues unconstitutionally to chill freedom of speech to this day.
September 30, 2025 at 6:16 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
🧵So this Trump post gives it away. Whatever this mysterious "Article 5-like" security guarantee Wittkoff mentioned, it'll be worth the paper it's printed on (and left on a hotel printer. 1/
Trump post on Truth social: "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea....and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!"
August 18, 2025 at 1:07 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
News from the Federal Register: the State Department Historical Advisory Committee’s functions, including oversight of the Foreign Relations of the United States series, transferred to the Assistant Secretary of Administration.
Federal Register announcement of delegation of authority from Historical Advisory Committee to the Assistant Secretary for Administration
August 6, 2025 at 6:37 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Essential paragraph:
Excerpt: "The Trump administration talked about expanding manufacturing at home. But across the country, 400,000 factory jobs were currently vacant. “That’s what’s so crazy about this,” I was told by another community-college leader who asked not to be identified, out of fear of retaliation from federal and state officials. (“The stakes are too high for the students that we serve.”) Why short-circuit the schools that were the local engines of building the work force? Community colleges already subsisted on budgets that most four-year schools would find laughable, lean operations that delivered hefty returns on investment for their areas. Get care at a local doctor’s office, or prepped for surgery at a hospital, or treated after an accident, or have someone come to your home to do repairs — “those are all community-college grads, all of them,” the community-college leader told me. “This collateral damage is going to end up being regional economic damage.”"
August 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Public wants moderate policies (secure border & path to citizenship, no dumb wars but fight necessary wars). But moderate policies will miss some calls, and hawkish turn won't help with the very sticky reputation on this issue. Don't believe me? Look at D reputation on natsec despite many D wars. 7/
Graph of Gallup responses from 2002-2020 to question, "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats, the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?" D's never crack 50% and top R's only once, at nadir of Iraq War.
July 8, 2025 at 4:22 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
What is time anyway
Trump says talks with Iran scheduled, Wittkoff says “will be in next week or so”
July 7, 2025 at 11:47 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
As @stevenmazie.bsky.social notes here, it means issues that are truly national will be handled in a crazy patchwork. Congress is the missing institution here.
“Which means a baby born in NY to undocumented parents will be a citizen. But a baby born to undocumented parents in Kentucky will not be a citizen. This is madness.”
June 27, 2025 at 2:34 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
(For the record, here's the State Department website as of 9:19pm EDT on 6/21, which contains a statement issued when Israel first bombed 8 days ago):
State Dept homepage as of 9:19pm 6/21: "Israel's Unilateral Action Against Iran"
June 22, 2025 at 1:20 AM
profsaunders.bsky.social
5. Where is Hegseth? The Department of Defense? This is the homepage as of 9:15 EDT:
DoD homepage as of 9:15pm EDT 6/21: "Nascar Driver Ross Chastain Shares 'Get Up and Do the Job' Motivation During Pentagon visit; photo of him shaking hands with Hegseth
June 22, 2025 at 1:17 AM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Unhappy to confirm that the entire Historical Advisory Committee at the State Department received termination notices this afternoon (myself included). The HAC, set up by Congress, oversees the office that produces the FRUS series. history.state.gov/about/hac/in... 1/
Tim Naftali's tweet on the termination of the HAC members without cause.
April 30, 2025 at 9:29 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
And here is a screenshot with the mouse on the "read the op-ed" button, and you can see it brings up the link to the Substack.
Hovering over the "read the op-ed" button brings up a link to the substack.
April 22, 2025 at 4:28 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
FOLKS: Don't miss that the State homepage briefly linked to this Substack as an "op-ed," but now it is gone from the State website. Here is a screenshot from shortly after 11am. SO is this an official statement from the Secretary of State? This is one reason not to do govt-by-Substack. 1/
Screenshot of State homepage from shortly after 11am
April 22, 2025 at 3:42 PM