Jane Green
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profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green
@profjanegreen.bsky.social
8.9K followers 500 following 620 posts

Nuffield College, Oxford
Co-Director, British Election Study
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
President, British Polling Council
Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

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Jane Green FAcSS is a British political scientist and academic. She is Professor of Political Science and British Politics at the University of Oxford and a professorial fellow of Nuffield College. She is a specialist in public opinion and electoral behaviour, and has co-directed the British Election Study. She is the president of the British Polling Council. .. more

Political science 77%
Economics 5%
Posts Replies Media Videos

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14h
Thanks @markpackuk.bsky.social for sharing. Here's a link if people want the full piece: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3d
Maybe, but if remaining Conservatives want to vote against a left party (depending what those say or do) they may increasingly see Reform as the most viable choice, and many said by May 2025 they would likely vote for them.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3d
Here's the analysis with @martamiori.bsky.social on which this @economist.com @matthewholehouse.bsky.social article is based:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3d
Are Reform at their ceiling?

@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.

We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.

Link here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 5d
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Reposted by Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Mike Brewer , and 1 more

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
My parent’s local A&E doesn’t have pillows, time, beds, capacity. The GP doesn’t have emergency appointments for emergencies, services with capacity to refer people to.

Caring like this about nomenclature and pronouns seems to me a luxury pursuit, frankly.
parodypm.bsky.social Parody Nigel Farage @parodypm.bsky.social · 7d
Susan Hall's condition has now reached the 'shouting at biscuits' stage.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Tim Bale, Jane Green , and 1 more

parodypm.bsky.social
Parody Nigel Farage @parodypm.bsky.social · 7d
Susan Hall's condition has now reached the 'shouting at biscuits' stage.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
Agree

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
But plenty of evidence (halving of vote in first year) that the strategy is not working so far.
benansell.bsky.social Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 7d
Precisely. If you are losing 20-25% of your vote to your left as well (which Labour are) then even with the double-counting problem with Reform that’s equally bad. There are no easy answers to this but we have no evidence that the current strategy is actually working.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
But the point of our piece is that this is the issue happening everywhere. Labour losing votes to the left and undecided lowers the bar for Reform who are mainly capturing Conservatives.

Reposted by Jane Green

benansell.bsky.social
Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 7d
Precisely. If you are losing 20-25% of your vote to your left as well (which Labour are) then even with the double-counting problem with Reform that’s equally bad. There are no easy answers to this but we have no evidence that the current strategy is actually working.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
I wouldn’t want to be too precise on exactly 12% but the double count is the issue Labour is concerned about. However, bigger total losses elsewhere are a bigger or as big a problem because they lower the bar for Reform to overtake Labour, if Reform take more votes from Tories (as they’re doing).

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d
Violin. I hope perhaps it wired my brain in a useful way but otherwise completely redundant.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8d
tiny numbers though

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8d
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8d
We found this. It’s on the Nuffield Politics Research Centre website….

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13d
Inflation falls, of course prices still keep going up on top of a painfully high level….

The public also do not see them as the same thing. We see much closer correspondence between answers about ‘prices’ and other evals compared to ‘inflation’.
duncanweldon.bsky.social Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 13d
A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.
codendahl.bsky.social Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13d
He's done it! Merz is now less popular than Olaf Scholz at his lowest low.

Nobody could have predicted this, of course. www.n-tv.de/politik/Kanz...

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Jane Green, Federica Genovese

duncanweldon.bsky.social
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 13d
A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13d
I popped up briefly on @itvnews.bsky.social News at Ten last night in relation to the "Budget Shenanigans" and public trust (and people being, more importantly, worried about their finances):

youtu.be/-56hNi57O94?...
Prime Minister defends Rachel Reeves as OBR Chair resigns - Watch ITV News at Ten
YouTube video by ITV News In Full
youtu.be

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13d
Not here; I’m definitely stuck in the past in my writing.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Pauline Stafford

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14d
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Jason Reifler, Jane Green , and 2 more

gcapoccia.bsky.social
Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social · 14d
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d
voila: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election
Abstract. Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support f
academic.oup.com

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d
Yes of course. Will do

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d
Its really strange. And a very weird reading of public opinion too. There are multiple reasons to win elections. Being clear about what you stand for, expressing values, delivery, unity in parliament, not just 'following poll X' !!
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 18d
It's part of the electionification of everything, which is why we as a country are failing to have a proper conversation about our actual problems. It's bad for the left *and* the right.
samfr.bsky.social Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 18d
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d
And 2017 beneath the surface too (the patterns of demographic association). But yes, the main thing was that 2024 was a return to a previous trend, but Labour's massive majority confused people quite a bit in that regard.

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Will Jennings, Jonathan Hopkin

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).

There's so much useful info in them.

The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

Reposted by Will Jennings, Patrick A. Jansen, Jane Green

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 18d
It's part of the electionification of everything, which is why we as a country are failing to have a proper conversation about our actual problems. It's bad for the left *and* the right.
samfr.bsky.social Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 18d
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
robertsaunders.bsky.social Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 18d
Headline on The World at One just now:

"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".

Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18d
Yes, indeed. Labour also has a problem of coming into power and doing un-Labour things. Consider the winter fuel cut and disability benefits cuts. This may reassure some of Labour's 2024 supporters, which is where Labour has been losing most of its support. I think its a more symbolic step.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 18d
The two-child limit lift should be a celebration moment for people who really do care about the working class and are motivated for politics to protect those really left-behind in society. Extremely telling when it isn't!!