Jane Green
@profjanegreen.bsky.social
8.7K followers 490 following 520 posts

Nuffield College, Oxford Co-Director, British Election Study Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre President, British Polling Council Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

Jane Green FAcSS is a British political scientist and academic. She is Professor of Political Science and British Politics at the University of Oxford and a professorial fellow of Nuffield College. She is a specialist in public opinion and electoral behaviour, and has co-directed the British Election Study. She is the president of the British Polling Council. .. more

Political science 77%
Economics 5%
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profjanegreen.bsky.social
"...because growth is the pound in your pocket, it is more money for trips, meals out, the little things that bring joy to our lives...the peace of mind that comes from economic security." 💪

@jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @zackgp94.bsky.social

profjanegreen.bsky.social
certainly a big deal that Labour is finally going on the attack

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Interesting. Comparison of Con>dk and Lab>dk 'duty to vote' could be telling. Conservatives going back certainly visible in July 2024 at the last minute, and I suspect higher duty of voting.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
I don’t think the Lab and Con don’t knows will really be squeezed until a GE

profjanegreen.bsky.social
The assumption is that Reform have their - what might have been - ‘don’t knows’ as decideds, which suggests they’re kind of at their ceiling.

I think we’ll find out if that’s true pre-post May 2026.

Will successes move even more Tories (and non-voters) to think they’re THE party of the right?
profjanegreen.bsky.social
What if we assume that the Con>dk and Lab>dk are really Con and Lab voters, respectively?

Reform are then slightly over-performing in polls.
dylandifford.bsky.social
Which party underperformed the most in the 2025 local elections?

Arguably Reform UK. A 🧵 on what the locals tell us about a key and neglected dimension in analysis of the current political situation.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
What if we assume that the Con>dk and Lab>dk are really Con and Lab voters, respectively?

Reform are then slightly over-performing in polls.
dylandifford.bsky.social
Which party underperformed the most in the 2025 local elections?

Arguably Reform UK. A 🧵 on what the locals tell us about a key and neglected dimension in analysis of the current political situation.
dylandifford.bsky.social
Which party underperformed the most in the 2025 local elections?

Arguably Reform UK. A 🧵 on what the locals tell us about a key and neglected dimension in analysis of the current political situation.

Reposted by Jane Green

profjanegreen.bsky.social
I was referring to how they’re trying to frame the choice…we saw this in the Starmer speech. It’s all relative…

profjanegreen.bsky.social
So it makes sense that Conservatives should try and reclaim the 'fiscal responsibility' label; incredibly easy in opposition to attack Labour and Reform. And resonates with what many will think a Conservative party would be doing.

Doesn't mean its a winning strategy, but its somewhere to start.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Dividing lines in British political competition becoming clearer in how they're trying to counter Reform.

For Labour, tolerance, delivery. For Conservatives, hard-right on 'culture' and fiscal prudence on econ. Latter probably the one thing Conservatives still thought to represent, in party image.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Working on something with a typo. The Untied States. Quite.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Perhaps more targeting the mid-life economically stretched group we identified here: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit....

I'd imagine that lump sum would mostly go to children, or a mortgage, which would be no bad thing!

I don't know how people would feel about retiring a year later as the trade-off.
Addressing key voters' economic insecurity is vital for all parties
People aged 35–59 are a pivotal swing voter group that all political parties need to appeal to. They're also the most economically insecure in Britain. What policies will throw them a lifeline?
www.jrf.org.uk

profjanegreen.bsky.social
The policies at CPC aimed at young people's savings are very interesting. They signal a) Conservatives have something to say to younger people (!), but also b) they have something to say to parents and grandparents deeply worried about younger generations. That's smart...

profjanegreen.bsky.social
A gem from today:

When I say ‘the proof is in the pudding’ it reflects very badly on me and very badly on my institution, because I haven’t said the whole precise phrase.

A thousand apologies, University of Oxford.
profjanegreen.bsky.social
When I go on ITV, I get back on a train. That’s that. Happy days.

When I go on BBC, I receive emails correcting which expressions I use, how I haven’t been strident enough about someone’s political grievance. Used to get a lot worse.

Anyone else removed their email address from their webpage?

profjanegreen.bsky.social
I don’t think so. Labour’s doing a broad (certainly confusing and sometimes suboptimal) appeal, but the Conservatives are the ones literally trying to go for Reform voters only.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
That’s horrific!

(We have an internal address book. The issue would be wider academic networks)

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Exactly. I guess they’ll just have to to decide to vote tactically, for their lesser of evils…and the Conservatives will get smaller and smaller.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
It’s not that it affects what I’d say or how I’d express a thing, or would change anything I’d do. Just don’t want those people crossing a boundary into my inbox.

Reposted by Tom Louwerse

profjanegreen.bsky.social
When I go on ITV, I get back on a train. That’s that. Happy days.

When I go on BBC, I receive emails correcting which expressions I use, how I haven’t been strident enough about someone’s political grievance. Used to get a lot worse.

Anyone else removed their email address from their webpage?

profjanegreen.bsky.social
If the Conservative Party shifts hard-right, as signals around CPC suggest they are, the voters they are targeting might as well vote Reform.

Why vote Conservative?!

They’re going for a tiny fringe. While the Conservatives could have been the opposition to Labour.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
One thing I said is that Badenoch's approach of leaving time to reflect just isn't one Conservatives can afford with half of lost Conservative 2024 votes in this first year going to Reform.

It is not a normal period of being kicked out of office and benefiting eventually when the gov fails.

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Had the pleasure tonight of chatting with the three brilliant BBC amigos, @adamfleming.bsky.social Chris Mason and Faisal Islam for BBC Newscast. On BBC 1 TV tonight, and podcast tomorrow….

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Yes! That was how Labour got their majority in 2024 on such a low vote share (plus tactical voting, plus Scotland).

profjanegreen.bsky.social
Is this why people are having fewer children? How much is about house prices, general doomism?