Jane Green
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profjanegreen.bsky.social
Jane Green
@profjanegreen.bsky.social

Nuffield College, Oxford
Co-Director, British Election Study
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
President, British Polling Council
Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

Jane Green FAcSS is a British political scientist and academic. She is Professor of Political Science and British Politics at the University of Oxford and a professorial fellow of Nuffield College. She is a specialist in public opinion and electoral behaviour, and has co-directed the British Election Study. She is the president of the British Polling Council. .. more

Political science 77%
Economics 5%

The most-read PQ article of 2025 was....

.... Drumroll....

'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'

Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The most-read PQ article of 2025 was....

.... Drumroll....

'The Most Disproportionate UK Election: How the Labour Party Doubled its Seat Share with a 1.6Point Increase in Vote Share in 2024'

Congrats, @martamiori.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Reposted by Jane Green

Merry Christmas from the Constitution Unit!

Do you have some spare time over the festive period?

Why not complete our short survey about what we do and how we can do it better 👉 qualtrics.ucl.ac.uk/jfe/form/SV_...?

Or apply for our exciting new Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics role 👇
Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
www.ucl.ac.uk
Our neighbours at @tcdpoliticalsci.bsky.social are hiring 3 (!) tenure-track faculty members:

– Assistant Professor in Political Economy
– Assistant Professor in International Politics
– Assistant Professor in Political Science

Deadline: 15 Jan 2026
More details: jobs.tcd.ie
@tcddublin.bsky.social
🚨 NEW BLOG

Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?

@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

Reposted by Jane Green

British politics in 2025 is now bloc politics. @profjanegreen.bsky.social new co-authored article shows how Leave–Remain divides shape vote switching, whether Reform has hit a ceiling, and how viability and voter intensity—using BES data—will shape what comes next: ow.ly/1ygG50XJwag

Thanks @markpackuk.bsky.social for sharing. Here's a link if people want the full piece: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Maybe, but if remaining Conservatives want to vote against a left party (depending what those say or do) they may increasingly see Reform as the most viable choice, and many said by May 2025 they would likely vote for them.

Are Reform at their ceiling?

@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.

We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.

Link here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
My parent’s local A&E doesn’t have pillows, time, beds, capacity. The GP doesn’t have emergency appointments for emergencies, services with capacity to refer people to.

Caring like this about nomenclature and pronouns seems to me a luxury pursuit, frankly.
Susan Hall's condition has now reached the 'shouting at biscuits' stage.
Susan Hall's condition has now reached the 'shouting at biscuits' stage.

Agree

But plenty of evidence (halving of vote in first year) that the strategy is not working so far.
Precisely. If you are losing 20-25% of your vote to your left as well (which Labour are) then even with the double-counting problem with Reform that’s equally bad. There are no easy answers to this but we have no evidence that the current strategy is actually working.

But the point of our piece is that this is the issue happening everywhere. Labour losing votes to the left and undecided lowers the bar for Reform who are mainly capturing Conservatives.

Reposted by Jane Green

Precisely. If you are losing 20-25% of your vote to your left as well (which Labour are) then even with the double-counting problem with Reform that’s equally bad. There are no easy answers to this but we have no evidence that the current strategy is actually working.

I wouldn’t want to be too precise on exactly 12% but the double count is the issue Labour is concerned about. However, bigger total losses elsewhere are a bigger or as big a problem because they lower the bar for Reform to overtake Labour, if Reform take more votes from Tories (as they’re doing).

Violin. I hope perhaps it wired my brain in a useful way but otherwise completely redundant.

tiny numbers though

We found this. It’s on the Nuffield Politics Research Centre website….

Inflation falls, of course prices still keep going up on top of a painfully high level….

The public also do not see them as the same thing. We see much closer correspondence between answers about ‘prices’ and other evals compared to ‘inflation’.
A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.
He's done it! Merz is now less popular than Olaf Scholz at his lowest low.

Nobody could have predicted this, of course. www.n-tv.de/politik/Kanz...
A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.

I popped up briefly on @itvnews.bsky.social News at Ten last night in relation to the "Budget Shenanigans" and public trust (and people being, more importantly, worried about their finances):

youtu.be/-56hNi57O94?...
Prime Minister defends Rachel Reeves as OBR Chair resigns - Watch ITV News at Ten
YouTube video by ITV News In Full
youtu.be

Not here; I’m definitely stuck in the past in my writing.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/

Yes of course. Will do