Peter Williams
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pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams
@pd-williams.bsky.social
290 followers 170 following 84 posts

Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist

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Peter Williams was a prominent leader of Welsh Calvinistic Methodism in the eighteenth century, best known for publishing Welsh-language bibles and bible commentary.

Source: Wikipedia
Physics 20%
Computer science 20%
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pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 3d
I just use yearly stacked NSA’s like your chart or y/y % change for all the claims data at this point.

Reposted by Peter Williams

brianbeutler.bsky.social
Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · 5d
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 10d
Was thinking about this and the question comes down to are you trying to minimize the cross-sectional errors or best explain something of macro significance. Potentially calls for completely different approaches

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 11d
Rock the subfusc and screw the haters
*second much more easily said than done

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 15d
That seems true and suggests we have decent visibility w/o missing similar SME activity.

But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct

It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 18d
I don’t lift heavy all that often any more, but it is real hard to beat the feeling the of the bar bouncing around on your back or collar bones

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 20d
Rational brain: “early snow often sets up dangerous backcountry conditions all winter”

November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
weatherwest.bsky.social Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20d
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
Snapshot of mid-late Nov 500mg GPH anomalies from ECMWF ensemble over North America. It depicts a very strong Greenland ridge persisting at least until late Nov, with a persistent trough along the West Coast once this week's ridge dissipates.

Reposted by Peter Williams

weatherwest.bsky.social
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20d
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
Snapshot of mid-late Nov 500mg GPH anomalies from ECMWF ensemble over North America. It depicts a very strong Greenland ridge persisting at least until late Nov, with a persistent trough along the West Coast once this week's ridge dissipates.

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 26d
Totally fair. I just feel like I’ve seen some people saying to ignore it not “we haven’t really learned anything since 10/1”

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · 26d
I mean we know where it stood at end-Sept with two months of pretty complete data for the quarter’s inputs. The minimal changes since then not really telling us much new either way.

Reposted by Peter Williams

chrislhayes.bsky.social
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 28d
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 22
IME, it’s simply too much material to cram in the ‘in one ear right out the other’ way a shorter single topic exam allows for. You still study like mad but there’s a reason revision periods are 2-6 weeks not a few days.

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 22
The UK approach I experienced of modest weight placed on work done across the year (essays, short quizzes, etc) with vast majority placed on a single end of year encompassing exam seems much more robust to AI challenges. Always thought by preventing cramming it was better anyway.

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Patrick Dunleavy, Peter Williams , and 3 more

janrosenow.bsky.social
Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · Oct 13
Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.

Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.

ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 10
Cash never lived in greater NYC therefor…

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 2
In recent years yes

Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 2
Also that video makes me want to get a 000-style quite badly

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 2
I was thinking this more than radio country (agreed on how formulaic it is)

youtu.be/sc5RFpYge1Y?...
Colter Wall - 1800 Miles (Live Performance Video)
YouTube video by ColterWallVEVO
youtu.be

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Oct 2
The moment begs for a garage band punk (and country?) resurgence

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 30
Best of lucky buddy! Am sure you’ll crush it

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 30
In fairness 90% of my exercise happens with running shoes or skis on so I very much am too

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 30
I don’t see the words “deadlifting” or “carrying heavy crap a long way” anywhere in there. What gives?!??

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 28
I feel like having that thought suggests the personality type for whom it likely is irrelevant

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 27
This looks absolutely amazing Preston! Heck of trip and route. I have little urge to get into most forms of biking but then I see some awesome bikepacking like this and wonder…

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 25
I see that and raise you ‘the chipotle by the Verizon center on a busy night’

pd-williams.bsky.social
Peter Williams @pd-williams.bsky.social · Sep 24
We live in a small boom town so big caver but within 1 mile radius of my house there are ~150 SF and a ton of multifam in various phases of construction

Reposted by Joe R. Feagin, Brendan Nyhan, Peter Williams , and 6 more

bachynski.bsky.social
Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · Sep 24
This is huge: “A drug that provides near-perfect protection against H.I.V. with shots just twice a year will be made available at $40 per patient annually in low- and middle-income countries, offering new hope… making lenacapavir a realistic choice in countries with constrained resources.”
Philanthropies Strike a Promising Deal to Turn Back H.I.V.
www.nytimes.com