Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com

16K followers 1.5K following 2.8K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Videos

Economics 47%

Mathematics 9%

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14h

Feel like there has always been weird hints but the last 5 years have seen a strong shift towards stuff like this

1 4

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Jesus christ

21 16 130

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Yes you and Kevin are a great example of folks diving deeply into them (heck even starting your own company!!)

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Joshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 1d

Kevin Bryan has a whole suite of tools. He even reinvented PowerPoint. www.kevinbryanecon.com/tools.html

Kevin A. Bryan - Tools

www.kevinbryanecon.com

1 2 8

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Reuters @reuters.com · 1d

Qualifier Vacherot stuns Djokovic to reach Shanghai final reut.rs/3KJwUFc

Qualifier Vacherot stuns Djokovic to reach Shanghai final

World number 204 Valentin Vacherot beat a struggling Novak Djokovic 6-3 6-4 to reach the Shanghai Masters final on Saturday, becoming the lowest-ranked player to get to an ATP Masters 1000 final since the series was introduced in 1990.

reut.rs

1 16

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Yes that’s a great example!

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

I think I agree, but it’s really useful for me to keep abreast of how these things are changing — helps me keep track of how “AI” might actually work..

1 4

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

For example, are they working with agents, are they using claude code (or codex, or any other command line tool), are they building out their own MCPs or trying out others, are they trying running models locally, are they tuning their own LLMs, etc.

2 5

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Extremely curious how many AI researchers in econ are actually using cutting edge AI tools and not just chatbot web interfaces?

5 12

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Emily Byun @yewonbyun.bsky.social · 2d

💡Can we trust synthetic data for statistical inference?

We show that synthetic data (e.g., LLM simulations) can significantly improve the performance of inference tasks. The key intuition lies in the interactions between the moment residuals of synthetic data and those of real data

2 7 33

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Anna Gifty @itsafronomics.bsky.social · 2d

Good MORNING #bluesky!!!!!!! Catch me on CBS News Boston PRIMETIME live in studio today online. Thank you Courtney Cole for featuring me on the show and for such a warm welcome.

If you haven't already, make sure to grab your copy of #TheDoubleTax: annagifty.com! #blacksky #news #booksky

2 18 48

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Thanks for the link, this is quite interesting.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

This is quite remarkable. From a monetary standpoint, I interpret this as saying "labor market is much less weak than expected -- we should be tightening to deal with inflation."

George Pearkes @peark.es · 3d

Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth.
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Chart showing estimates of US population growth at monthly frequencies from 2017-2025 from BLS, BEA/Census, CBO, and author's calculations

Estimated monthly contributions to monthly breakeven payroll growth across population, changes in institutionalization/civilian status, and labor force participation 2017 - 2025

Estimated monthly breakeven payrolls rate from 2022-2025

1 10

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

George Pearkes @peark.es · 3d

5 30 140

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Greer , and 4 more Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Greer, Ryan Enos, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Michael D. McDonald, Simon Lester

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 3d

new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news

18 130 500

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Added Finance job decomposition, and Federal Reserve Bank/Board jobs (zero so far this year...)

1 2 10

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Added Fed analysis (also FDIC and OCC) -- you're right that there's nothing. And that's way below the usual level. paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...

Economics Job Market Tracker: Visualizing JOE Posting Trends 2015-2025

paulgp.com

1 1

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

I’ll try to look. This is a great idea

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

You’re ready for the Times editorial team!!

Reposted by Joshua Goodman, Keith Head

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Posted a short blog post with updated data (and public repo with data) of current state of Econ job market:

paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...

2 11 42

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

thebes @vgel.me · 4d

if you're interesting in gaining a better intuition for how llms behave at inference time, you should try logitloom🌱, the open-source tool i made for exploring token trajectory trees (aka looming) on base and instruct models! more info in thread

🌱 vgel.me/logitloom
💻 github.com/vgel/logitloom

5 25 100

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Bill Amend @billamend.bsky.social · 4d

My friend Matt Inman made a great comic about AI…

A cartoonist's review of AI art - The Oatmeal

This is a comic about AI art.

theoatmeal.com

13 220 570

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Jan W. Mueller, Joe R. Feagin , and 12 more Joanna Bryson, Jan W. Mueller, Joe R. Feagin, Brendan Nyhan, Pamela Samuelson, Scott L. Greer, Daniel W. Drezner, Melanie C. Green, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Rebecca M. Bratspies, Michael D. McDonald, Mark Rice, Andrew Rudalevige, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 4d

Gonna be thinking about this lede for a minute.

(RNS) — Last month, the Rev. David Black stood in front of a Chicago-area U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility and spread his arms wide. Adorned in all black and wearing a clerical collar, the pastor looked up at a group of masked, heavily armed ICE agents on the roof and began to pray.

“I invited them to repentance,” Black, a minister in the Presbyterian Church (USA), said in an interview. “I basically offered an altar call. I invited them to come and receive that salvation, and be part of the kingdom that is coming.”

But when Black began to lower his arms a few seconds later, the agents responded to his spiritual plea by firing pepper balls, or chemical agents that cause eye irritation and respiratory distress, video footage shows. One struck Black in the head, exploding into a puff of white pepper smoke and forcing him to his knees. Fellow demonstrators rushed to his aid, and as the pastor rubbed his face in pain, the agents continued to fire.

“We could hear them laughing,” Black said.

190 4.9K 11K

Reposted by Linda J. Skitka, Philip N. Cohen, David S. Cohen , and 4 more Linda J. Skitka, Philip N. Cohen, David S. Cohen, Andrew L. Whitehead, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Simon Lester, Aviel Roshwald

Paul Fairie @paulisci.bsky.social · 4d

A Brief History of Men are Becoming Less Manly

🧵

41 670 1.4K

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

I just don't think of that as counterfactually changing race. It counterfactually changes how the *reader* of the resume perceives race, which is very manipulable.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

I don’t love counter factual statements that don’t have a practical manipulation associated with them (eg I think race counter factual is not a reasonable idea à la Holland 2005)

1 1

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Valerie Mueller, Shelly Lundberg , and 3 more Scott L. Greer, Valerie Mueller, Shelly Lundberg, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Evan Roberts

Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 5d

We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."

Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

Event study coefficients that show that men's earnings rise more than women's among couples following a cross-commuting zone move (left panels). The pattern is muted or reverses among single men and single women (right panels).

3 88 280

Reposted by Joshua Goodman

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

Working on writing up a short note (and blog post) trying to explain the distinction between model-based and design-based identification.

Any questions regarding this that are burning for you?

3 8 34

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

I was only just barely understanding Sen in college, this would’ve been over my head

2 4

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

Based Mill

1 4