Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com

17K followers 1.5K following 3.2K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Videos

Economics 47%

Mathematics 9%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 1h

"The AEA condemns Mr. Summers' conduct, as reflected in publicly reported communications, as fundamentally inconsistent with its standards of professional integrity and with the trust placed in mentors within the economics profession."

AEA Information @aeainformation.bsky.social · 2h

The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...

Statement from the American Economic Association

www.aeaweb.org

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Amy W. Ando

Frog and Toad Bot @frogandtoadbot.bsky.social · 9h

Frog knocked at Toad’s door. “Toad, wake up,” he cried. “Come out and see how wonderful the winter is!”

“I will not,” said Toad. “I am in my warm bed.”

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 18h

Love this. Kid is going places

Reposted by Joshua Goodman, Trevon D. Logan, Scott A. Imberman , and 1 more Joshua Goodman, Trevon D. Logan, Scott A. Imberman, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

C. Kirabo Jackson @kirabojackson.bsky.social · 19h

Have a favorite AEJ: Economic Policy paper from the past three years? Submit your nomination at the link below!
www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...

AEJ Best Paper Awards

www.aeaweb.org

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19h

An H of G: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovrz...

An H of G

YouTube video by vlogbrothers

www.youtube.com

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 23h

faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/gep575/Bayes... I think you can only get something close to the LM tests, AR isn't possible

faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

I would just hedge my bets everywhere and invoke Bernstein-von mises

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

🤣

Reposted by David H. Kaye, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Meredith Rose @mrose.ink · 1d

And we're off with SCOTUS arguments in Sony v Cox. The question at issue: whether ISPs can be liable for the copyright infringement committed by their users.

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens, Michael Kevane, Rebecca Tushnet , and 5 more Michael A. Clemens, Michael Kevane, Rebecca Tushnet, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Dean Eckles, Brooke Harrington, Karin Wulf, Clark Gray

Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 1d

We first note that hand-wringing about the decline in US college enrollments has mistakenly linked such declines to the price of four-year colleges.

But the decline is entirely driven by two-year community colleges (and by for-profit colleges). The four-year sector is the dog that didn't bark.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Parents — we did it. Schools back tomorrow.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

Yeah, I guess then it's relative -- now the more scarce thing would be a handmade x or y since time is one of the more scarce inputs.

Or, for example, learning how to build something to make a gift for someone.

Or, learning a language/trick to amaze someone

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, C. Kirabo Jackson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 1d

The Krugman blog today on affordability gets at exactly what I think is happening, and what's missed in the vibecession debates

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/affordabil...

Moreover, I would argue that three important concepts that are especially poorly captured by standard economic numbers underlie people’s perceptions of affordability: economic inclusion, security, and fairness. By economic inclusion I mean the ability to purchase the goods and services that allow someone to feel like a member in full standing of American society. By security I mean a feeling based not just on current real income, but also an assurance that severe hardship isn’t just a stretch of bad luck away. Lastly I would also argue that perceptions of affordability are often intertwined with perceptions of fairness: people are especially upset about high prices when they feel that they are being taken advantage of.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

I think the usual econ argument about this relates to the modern trade view -- abundance through the multitude of trade allows for more kinds of magic to manifest.

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Dean Eckles , and 1 more Aaron Sojourner, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Dean Eckles, Dan Immergluck

Daryl Fairweather ⛅ @hatethegamebook.com · 2d

You can still find property level climate risk scores on Redfin

Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...

Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings

www.nytimes.com

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

I want the WSJ to fill out a fucking apology form

Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 2d

Soon small businesses won’t have to wait for Small Business Saturday to get attention from their Mayor.

Some changes that they can look forward to:

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Reposted by Steve Peers, Anders Nilsson, Cathy N. Davidson , and 5 more Steve Peers, Anders Nilsson, Cathy N. Davidson, Daniel W. Drezner, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Lisa Diedrich, Ann Bartow, Simon Lester

Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 2d

Soon small businesses won’t have to wait for Small Business Saturday to get attention from their Mayor.

Some changes that they can look forward to:

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

And I read (and did!) plenty of Bayesian estimation stuff from Imbens, so I think more of the guilt lies with the practitioners than the econometricians

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

I could speculate but there are probably better people to ask. Gary Chamberlain was very aware of how to think about these things, but also probably could’ve given a very compelling argument of why unbiasedness is so valuable from a decision making standpoint

Reposted by Alan Richardson, David R. Miller, Julia Lynch , and 6 more Alan Richardson, David R. Miller, Julia Lynch, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Brian Keegan, Nelson Flores, Jon Dean, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

gwen howerton @kissphoria.bsky.social · 3d

idk not to mention how very nuanced and normal the actual response here was

Trans Professors comment
Mel Curth (She/They)
November 16, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Please note that I am not deducting points because you have certain beliefs, but instead I am deducting point for you posting a reaction paper that does not answer the questions for this assignment, contradicts itself, heavily uses personal ideology over empirical evidence in a scientific class, and is at times offensive.
While you are entitled to your own personal beliefs, there is an appropriate time or place to implement them in your reflections. I encourage all students to question or challenge the course material with other empirical findings or testable hypotheses, but using your own personal beliefs to argue against the findings of not only this article, but the findings of countless articles across psychology, biology, sociology, etc. is not best practice.
You argue that abiding by normative gender roles is beneficial (it is perfectly fine to believe this. but to then say that evervone should act
TPUSA OU

Trans Professors comment
the same, while also saying that people aren't pressured into gendered expectations is contradictory, especially since your arguments reflect a religious pressure to act in gender-stereotypical ways. You can say that strict gender norms don't create gender stereotypes, but that isn't true by definition of what a stereotype is. Please note that acknowledging gender stereotypes does not immediately denote a negative connotation, a nuance this article discusses.
Additionally, to call an entire group of people
"demonic" is highly offensive, especially a minoritized population. You are entitled to your own beliefs, but this isn't a vague narrative of
"society pushes lies," but instead the result of countless years developing psychological and scientific evidence for these claims and directly interacting with the communities involved. You may personally disagree with this, but that
TPUSA OU
2

Trans Professors comment
doesn't change the fact that every major psychological, medical, pediatric, and psychiatric association in the United States acknowledges that, biologically and psychologically, sex and gender is neither binary nor fixed.
I implore you apply some more perspective and empathy in your work. If you personally disagree with the findings, then by all means share your criticisms, but make sure to do so in a way that is appropriate and using the methodology of empirical psychology, as aligned with the learning goals in this class. If you have any additional questions or concerns about this or would like some additional educational resources, I would be happy to discuss this further and provide you with them.
3
TPUSA OU

Additional professor
Megan Waldron (She/Her/Hers)
November 16, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Samantha, I am the other instructor for this course, and I have also taken the time to read your paper. I concur with Mel on the grade you received. This paper should not be considered as a completion of the assignment.
Everyone has different ways in which they see the world, but in an academic course such as this you are being asked to support your ideas with empirical evidence and higher-level reasoning.
I find it concerning that you state at the beginning of your paper that you do not think bullying ("teasing") is a bad thing. In addition, your paper directly and harshly criticizes your peers and their opinions, which are just as valuable as yours. Disagreeing with others is fine, but there is a respectful way to go about it. That goes for discussion posts as well as reaction
papers.
Please employ more thoughtfulness in your future assignments
TPUSA OU

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

If I were being thoughtful, there probably is value in having a subfield that is more dogmatic about valuing unbiasedness relative to mathematical stats, but probably not to the extent that we currently have

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Probably just econometricians and bias, a hate story tbh

Or econometricians and variance, a love story

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

But yeah this might be one of those ones where we say “don’t interpret as causal unless you think it’s the correct spec…”

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Fuckload more fixed aka non parametrics

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Everyone loves cutesiness: an analysis of titles in academia

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

I interpret this as an important extension of the “On Binscatter” paper by Crump et al, where the omitted/misspecified controls are time trends

Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Clark Gray

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Interesting paper highlight that binning can be misspecified in panel settings - this drives misinterpretation of extreme temperature shocks. #linkoftheday

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1ya6z...

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 3d

The story of how India overtook China's population is a lot longer and more complicated than it looks. No, I'm not going to tell it in a 50-skeet thread.
/1

population trends showing India surpassing China's population around 2022.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d

Lol

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