Peter Williams
@pd-williams.bsky.social
Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist
Reposted by Peter Williams
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...
Rational brain: “early snow often sets up dangerous backcountry conditions all winter”
November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
November 9, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Rational brain: “early snow often sets up dangerous backcountry conditions all winter”
November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
November skier brain: “I got a fever and the solution is more powder”
Reposted by Peter Williams
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?
October 31, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?
Reposted by Peter Williams
Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.
Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.
ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.
ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
October 13, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.
Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.
ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.
ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...
Reposted by Peter Williams
This is huge: “A drug that provides near-perfect protection against H.I.V. with shots just twice a year will be made available at $40 per patient annually in low- and middle-income countries, offering new hope… making lenacapavir a realistic choice in countries with constrained resources.”
Philanthropies Strike a Promising Deal to Turn Back H.I.V.
www.nytimes.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:27 PM
This is huge: “A drug that provides near-perfect protection against H.I.V. with shots just twice a year will be made available at $40 per patient annually in low- and middle-income countries, offering new hope… making lenacapavir a realistic choice in countries with constrained resources.”
Reposted by Peter Williams
The man who gifted Musk his infamous chainsaw is now begging the US for a bailout…
Argentina spends $1bn to defend peso as Milei’s crisis spirals on.ft.com/4gtNFzW
Argentina spends $1bn to defend peso as President Javier Milei’s crisis spirals
Monetary authority intervenes in currency market for third time this week, selling $678mn on Friday
on.ft.com
September 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
The man who gifted Musk his infamous chainsaw is now begging the US for a bailout…
Reposted by Peter Williams
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
September 18, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Peter Williams
I’ve seen so many people spreading the misinformation that PBS is shut down or is shutting down.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting has been shut down and PBS has been defunded.
HOWEVER!!! PBS still exists. It is more important now than ever that you donate to PBS if you can.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting has been shut down and PBS has been defunded.
HOWEVER!!! PBS still exists. It is more important now than ever that you donate to PBS if you can.
August 22, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I’ve seen so many people spreading the misinformation that PBS is shut down or is shutting down.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting has been shut down and PBS has been defunded.
HOWEVER!!! PBS still exists. It is more important now than ever that you donate to PBS if you can.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting has been shut down and PBS has been defunded.
HOWEVER!!! PBS still exists. It is more important now than ever that you donate to PBS if you can.
Reposted by Peter Williams
Great background on what power Trump has over DC: www.stevevladeck.com/p/172-federa...
172. "Federalizing" D.C.
Like any federal enclave, the federal government has plenary power over the District of Columbia. But Congress has delegated most of that power to local officials; it would take new laws to undo that.
www.stevevladeck.com
August 11, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Great background on what power Trump has over DC: www.stevevladeck.com/p/172-federa...
Reposted by Peter Williams
1. This week, the FBI released its comprehensive crime report for 2024, which revealed that both VIOLENT CRIME and PROPERTY CRIME reached their LOWEST LEVELS SINCE THE 1960s
This a massive story. But you might not have heard about it, even if you follow the news closely.
Here's why.
This a massive story. But you might not have heard about it, even if you follow the news closely.
Here's why.
Why you might not know that 2024 was America's safest year since the 1960s
An overwhelming majority of Americans, 64 percent, believe that crime increased across the country in 2024, according to a Gallup survey conducted late last year.
popular.info
August 7, 2025 at 1:35 PM
1. This week, the FBI released its comprehensive crime report for 2024, which revealed that both VIOLENT CRIME and PROPERTY CRIME reached their LOWEST LEVELS SINCE THE 1960s
This a massive story. But you might not have heard about it, even if you follow the news closely.
Here's why.
This a massive story. But you might not have heard about it, even if you follow the news closely.
Here's why.
Reposted by Peter Williams
Folks often assume that sheer number of wildfires in West must be linked to intentional arson--despite abundant evidence to contrary. But this partly stems from profound underestimation re: just how easy it can be to spark a fire under right conditions... www.nytimes.com/2025...
A Fish Falls From the Sky and Sparks a Brush Fire in British Columbia
Officials say a flying osprey dropped its catch, which then struck power lines, causing sparks that ignited dry grass.
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Folks often assume that sheer number of wildfires in West must be linked to intentional arson--despite abundant evidence to contrary. But this partly stems from profound underestimation re: just how easy it can be to spark a fire under right conditions... www.nytimes.com/2025...
Reposted by Peter Williams
3/ Final point - it’s interesting that the labor market has been very undynamic along one dimension (low hiring, low firing) and very dynamic along another (employment delta due to business creation/destruction)
August 3, 2025 at 3:23 PM
3/ Final point - it’s interesting that the labor market has been very undynamic along one dimension (low hiring, low firing) and very dynamic along another (employment delta due to business creation/destruction)
Reposted by Peter Williams
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data.
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data
US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with th...
www.piie.com
July 31, 2025 at 11:02 AM
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data.
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.
My first piece for @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...
A niche complaint but in histories, it always seems more effective me to have the unit of account not be an inflation-adjust currency but rather relative to an avg daily or monthly wage given how much real incomes have risen over time.
July 23, 2025 at 9:41 PM
A niche complaint but in histories, it always seems more effective me to have the unit of account not be an inflation-adjust currency but rather relative to an avg daily or monthly wage given how much real incomes have risen over time.
Reposted by Peter Williams
Increasingly convinced the main damage cell phones have done to creativity isn't decreased attention spans or what not but the elimination of productive boredom. Inspiration comes from the mind filling the void inside. Hard to make art when you're constantly silencing the silence with "content."
July 22, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Increasingly convinced the main damage cell phones have done to creativity isn't decreased attention spans or what not but the elimination of productive boredom. Inspiration comes from the mind filling the void inside. Hard to make art when you're constantly silencing the silence with "content."
Reposted by Peter Williams
NEW:
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
www.ft.com/content/a9ea...
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
www.ft.com/content/a9ea...
July 18, 2025 at 2:48 PM
NEW:
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
www.ft.com/content/a9ea...
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
www.ft.com/content/a9ea...
Reposted by Peter Williams
1. We interrupt this programming for some LEGITIMATELY GOOD NEWS
Violent crime in Baltimore has PLUMMETED to historic lows
How did the city do it?
Baltimore adopted a comprehensive set of "woke" policies, treating violence as a public health issue
Violent crime in Baltimore has PLUMMETED to historic lows
How did the city do it?
Baltimore adopted a comprehensive set of "woke" policies, treating violence as a public health issue
The secret to Baltimore's extraordinary year
This April, Baltimore saw five homicides.
popular.info
July 16, 2025 at 1:14 PM
1. We interrupt this programming for some LEGITIMATELY GOOD NEWS
Violent crime in Baltimore has PLUMMETED to historic lows
How did the city do it?
Baltimore adopted a comprehensive set of "woke" policies, treating violence as a public health issue
Violent crime in Baltimore has PLUMMETED to historic lows
How did the city do it?
Baltimore adopted a comprehensive set of "woke" policies, treating violence as a public health issue
Some of the best advice I’ve ever read was to “do things for which you will later experience nostalgia.” Checked that box for sure on Sunday.
July 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Some of the best advice I’ve ever read was to “do things for which you will later experience nostalgia.” Checked that box for sure on Sunday.
Reposted by Peter Williams
people argue that rooftop solar policy discourse can get in the way of the real land use issues with mass solar energy production, but in fact it's all the same problem with how nothing can get built in America
like in Australia you can get your rooftop solar permit in 1 day. in the US it typically takes 4-6 months www.greentechmedia.com/articles/rea...
How to Halve the Cost of Residential Solar in the US
Former Sungevity CEO Andrew Birch breaks down why American consumers are being charged two times more for solar than their peers overseas.
www.greentechmedia.com
July 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
people argue that rooftop solar policy discourse can get in the way of the real land use issues with mass solar energy production, but in fact it's all the same problem with how nothing can get built in America
Reposted by Peter Williams
NEPA and CEQA were enacted with the best of intentions, but the reality of their implementation in 2025 is an unsustainable status quo of car-dependent exurbs flung into the path of unstoppable megafires.
The idea that change is always bad is an idea which the environmental movement must abandon.
The idea that change is always bad is an idea which the environmental movement must abandon.
CEQA represents something like the ideal of Naderite torts liberalism. A way for basically anyone to sue to block anyone from building anything. Predictable result: it's hard to build anything without a decade in court so nothing gets built!
July 1, 2025 at 3:08 AM
NEPA and CEQA were enacted with the best of intentions, but the reality of their implementation in 2025 is an unsustainable status quo of car-dependent exurbs flung into the path of unstoppable megafires.
The idea that change is always bad is an idea which the environmental movement must abandon.
The idea that change is always bad is an idea which the environmental movement must abandon.
Wondeful piece on the importance of day to day existence vs productivity & work in defining one’s life. Work is a part of life but unless you’re a very unique person in a very unique role, it shouldn’t be all your life
open.substack.com/pub/theparis...
open.substack.com/pub/theparis...
Why the French Don’t Obsess Over Purpose
A softer kind of ambition, where work is not your worth and satisfaction counts more than success.
open.substack.com
June 11, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Wondeful piece on the importance of day to day existence vs productivity & work in defining one’s life. Work is a part of life but unless you’re a very unique person in a very unique role, it shouldn’t be all your life
open.substack.com/pub/theparis...
open.substack.com/pub/theparis...
Reposted by Peter Williams
Industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants are adding jobs at a slower rate than the rest of the private sector.
Gap opened up shortly after border encounters dropped last year.
Gap opened up shortly after border encounters dropped last year.
June 6, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants are adding jobs at a slower rate than the rest of the private sector.
Gap opened up shortly after border encounters dropped last year.
Gap opened up shortly after border encounters dropped last year.
Reposted by Peter Williams
What's a "good" jobs-report number?
The breakeven job level needed to keep employment steady is just 50k, vs 160k a year ago.
The immigration surge is over, and peak boomers are aging into retirement.
Our rules of thumb about slack, overheating, etc, must adjust.
The breakeven job level needed to keep employment steady is just 50k, vs 160k a year ago.
The immigration surge is over, and peak boomers are aging into retirement.
Our rules of thumb about slack, overheating, etc, must adjust.
June 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
What's a "good" jobs-report number?
The breakeven job level needed to keep employment steady is just 50k, vs 160k a year ago.
The immigration surge is over, and peak boomers are aging into retirement.
Our rules of thumb about slack, overheating, etc, must adjust.
The breakeven job level needed to keep employment steady is just 50k, vs 160k a year ago.
The immigration surge is over, and peak boomers are aging into retirement.
Our rules of thumb about slack, overheating, etc, must adjust.
Reposted by Peter Williams
For all the talk about “hard truths” etc that propagate our discourse we really don’t discuss how coddling conspiracy theorists has made things worse for everyone.
40% of Republicans say the COVID-19 vaccine has probably or definitely killed more people than the COVID-19 virus.
May 20, 2025 at 4:01 PM
For all the talk about “hard truths” etc that propagate our discourse we really don’t discuss how coddling conspiracy theorists has made things worse for everyone.
Pretty wild for May 18th
May 18, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Pretty wild for May 18th