Peter Williams
@pd-williams.bsky.social
Climbing, skiing, rates’ musing economist
I just use yearly stacked NSA’s like your chart or y/y % change for all the claims data at this point.
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 PM
I just use yearly stacked NSA’s like your chart or y/y % change for all the claims data at this point.
Reposted by Peter Williams
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
If, OTOH, we treat complaints about affordability as proxies for a subjective sense of precariousness in American economic life, we can try to get to the bottom of why Americans feel like things are more precarious than hard data says they are. www.offmessage.net/p/taking-aff...
Was thinking about this and the question comes down to are you trying to minimize the cross-sectional errors or best explain something of macro significance. Potentially calls for completely different approaches
November 18, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Was thinking about this and the question comes down to are you trying to minimize the cross-sectional errors or best explain something of macro significance. Potentially calls for completely different approaches
Rock the subfusc and screw the haters
*second much more easily said than done
*second much more easily said than done
November 17, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Rock the subfusc and screw the haters
*second much more easily said than done
*second much more easily said than done
That seems true and suggests we have decent visibility w/o missing similar SME activity.
But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct
It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y
But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct
It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y
November 13, 2025 at 11:52 PM
That seems true and suggests we have decent visibility w/o missing similar SME activity.
But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct
It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y
But white collar anxiety goes against spending trends through even end-Oct
It also appears pretty clear that Challenger for whatever reason has an upward bias vs initial claims and JOLTS for last 3-4y
I don’t lift heavy all that often any more, but it is real hard to beat the feeling the of the bar bouncing around on your back or collar bones
November 11, 2025 at 3:09 PM
I don’t lift heavy all that often any more, but it is real hard to beat the feeling the of the bar bouncing around on your back or collar bones
Totally fair. I just feel like I’ve seen some people saying to ignore it not “we haven’t really learned anything since 10/1”
November 3, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Totally fair. I just feel like I’ve seen some people saying to ignore it not “we haven’t really learned anything since 10/1”
I mean we know where it stood at end-Sept with two months of pretty complete data for the quarter’s inputs. The minimal changes since then not really telling us much new either way.
November 3, 2025 at 5:24 PM
I mean we know where it stood at end-Sept with two months of pretty complete data for the quarter’s inputs. The minimal changes since then not really telling us much new either way.
Reposted by Peter Williams
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?
October 31, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Also, maybe we come up with, like, two more holidays, say in the early and late spring, that involve walking around the neighborhood and talking to your neighbors?
IME, it’s simply too much material to cram in the ‘in one ear right out the other’ way a shorter single topic exam allows for. You still study like mad but there’s a reason revision periods are 2-6 weeks not a few days.
October 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
IME, it’s simply too much material to cram in the ‘in one ear right out the other’ way a shorter single topic exam allows for. You still study like mad but there’s a reason revision periods are 2-6 weeks not a few days.
The UK approach I experienced of modest weight placed on work done across the year (essays, short quizzes, etc) with vast majority placed on a single end of year encompassing exam seems much more robust to AI challenges. Always thought by preventing cramming it was better anyway.
October 22, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The UK approach I experienced of modest weight placed on work done across the year (essays, short quizzes, etc) with vast majority placed on a single end of year encompassing exam seems much more robust to AI challenges. Always thought by preventing cramming it was better anyway.
Cash never lived in greater NYC therefor…
October 10, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Cash never lived in greater NYC therefor…
In recent years yes
Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender
Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender
October 2, 2025 at 9:04 PM
In recent years yes
Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender
Haven’t had an electric setup since I first moved to DC 10+ years ago but happiness would be an ES-330 into a Fender
Also that video makes me want to get a 000-style quite badly
October 2, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Also that video makes me want to get a 000-style quite badly
I was thinking this more than radio country (agreed on how formulaic it is)
youtu.be/sc5RFpYge1Y?...
youtu.be/sc5RFpYge1Y?...
Colter Wall - 1800 Miles (Live Performance Video)
YouTube video by ColterWallVEVO
youtu.be
October 2, 2025 at 1:46 AM
I was thinking this more than radio country (agreed on how formulaic it is)
youtu.be/sc5RFpYge1Y?...
youtu.be/sc5RFpYge1Y?...
The moment begs for a garage band punk (and country?) resurgence
October 2, 2025 at 1:41 AM
The moment begs for a garage band punk (and country?) resurgence
Best of lucky buddy! Am sure you’ll crush it
September 30, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Best of lucky buddy! Am sure you’ll crush it
In fairness 90% of my exercise happens with running shoes or skis on so I very much am too
September 30, 2025 at 9:24 PM
In fairness 90% of my exercise happens with running shoes or skis on so I very much am too
I don’t see the words “deadlifting” or “carrying heavy crap a long way” anywhere in there. What gives?!??
September 30, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I don’t see the words “deadlifting” or “carrying heavy crap a long way” anywhere in there. What gives?!??
I feel like having that thought suggests the personality type for whom it likely is irrelevant
September 28, 2025 at 12:08 AM
I feel like having that thought suggests the personality type for whom it likely is irrelevant
This looks absolutely amazing Preston! Heck of trip and route. I have little urge to get into most forms of biking but then I see some awesome bikepacking like this and wonder…
September 27, 2025 at 11:36 PM
This looks absolutely amazing Preston! Heck of trip and route. I have little urge to get into most forms of biking but then I see some awesome bikepacking like this and wonder…
I see that and raise you ‘the chipotle by the Verizon center on a busy night’
September 25, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I see that and raise you ‘the chipotle by the Verizon center on a busy night’
We live in a small boom town so big caver but within 1 mile radius of my house there are ~150 SF and a ton of multifam in various phases of construction
September 24, 2025 at 2:22 PM
We live in a small boom town so big caver but within 1 mile radius of my house there are ~150 SF and a ton of multifam in various phases of construction