Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Pinned
link.springer.com
Simply go the the Springer site for the book, and enter discount code "BGE25", and you'll get 25% off the definitive guide to last year's general election - with many lessons for the current mess we are in. Here's the website:
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
link.springer.com/book/9783031...
Warm talk, no big action, and certainly nothing controversial or difficult is pretty much the compass this government navigates to after all
You know what? I really don't think it is. Great domestic political posturing, but Labour have no plans to go beyond the 'reset' agenda, certainly none the EU are likely to accept. This will be talk to little if any action.
Starmer declaring “we have to keep moving towards a closer relationship with the EU” is a significant moment.
Reflects transformation in public opinion + need for economic growth.
Reflects transformation in public opinion + need for economic growth.
December 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Warm talk, no big action, and certainly nothing controversial or difficult is pretty much the compass this government navigates to after all
Reposted by Rob Ford
This is brilliant analysis. The main takeaway is that Labour strategists do not understand why they won the 2024 election or who voted for the party. The leak leftwards was well underway before the country went to the polls. A major wake-up is required. I won't bet on it happening.
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election
And what they mean for the next one
samf.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 10:34 AM
This is brilliant analysis. The main takeaway is that Labour strategists do not understand why they won the 2024 election or who voted for the party. The leak leftwards was well underway before the country went to the polls. A major wake-up is required. I won't bet on it happening.
This is a fantastic post by Sam drawing out some of the key lessons from 2024, based on his read of "The British General Election of 2024" (we gave him an early look). He says: "you should definitely get the book, which is as valuable as previous editions in the series."
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election
And what they mean for the next one
samf.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:57 AM
This is a fantastic post by Sam drawing out some of the key lessons from 2024, based on his read of "The British General Election of 2024" (we gave him an early look). He says: "you should definitely get the book, which is as valuable as previous editions in the series."
Reposted by Rob Ford
This is an interesting paper.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
December 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
This is an interesting paper.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
A thought following on from this thought: what will it mean for democratic incentive structures if voters rapidly turn against incumbents whatever they do? On the one hand, "nothing to lose" may encourage politicians to just do the hard stuff instead of chasing polls. But on the other...1/2
A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.
Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.
He's done it! Merz is now less popular than Olaf Scholz at his lowest low.
Nobody could have predicted this, of course. www.n-tv.de/politik/Kanz...
Nobody could have predicted this, of course. www.n-tv.de/politik/Kanz...
December 2, 2025 at 3:41 PM
A thought following on from this thought: what will it mean for democratic incentive structures if voters rapidly turn against incumbents whatever they do? On the one hand, "nothing to lose" may encourage politicians to just do the hard stuff instead of chasing polls. But on the other...1/2
BGE 2024 advent calendar day two - who won the campaign last summer?
Time for day 2 of the "British General Election of 2024" advent calender. Who won & lost the campaign last summer? Which parties gained ground in polls? Who fell back? In the next post, we find out but first: here's a thread detailing how you can claim your discounted copy! bsky.app/profile/robf...
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
December 2, 2025 at 2:04 PM
BGE 2024 advent calendar day two - who won the campaign last summer?
Not just a tragedy for America, but, given the central place the US occupies in the research ecosystem, a tragedy for the world.
“Thousands of very competitive projects in areas like cancer, diabetes, aging, neurological disorders and public health improvements most like went unfunded in 2025.
Similarly, at the National Science Foundation, the roughly 3,000 fewer new grants encompassed reductions to every area of science”
Similarly, at the National Science Foundation, the roughly 3,000 fewer new grants encompassed reductions to every area of science”
The U.S. Is Funding Fewer Grants in Every Area of Science and Medicine
A quiet policy change means the government is making fewer bets on long-term science.
www.nytimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Not just a tragedy for America, but, given the central place the US occupies in the research ecosystem, a tragedy for the world.
Reposted by Rob Ford
Every week, more voices in the media are coming out against First Past the Post.
@fromtga.bsky.social is right: FPTP could allow any kind of dangerous populist to take power on a minority of the vote, or by taking over the ruling party.
PR would help safeguard our democracy.
@fromtga.bsky.social is right: FPTP could allow any kind of dangerous populist to take power on a minority of the vote, or by taking over the ruling party.
PR would help safeguard our democracy.
My guide to populist-proofing your democracy – before it’s too late | Timothy Garton Ash
From public service broadcasting to an independent judiciary, these are the things that we must fight to keep, says Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash
www.theguardian.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Every week, more voices in the media are coming out against First Past the Post.
@fromtga.bsky.social is right: FPTP could allow any kind of dangerous populist to take power on a minority of the vote, or by taking over the ruling party.
PR would help safeguard our democracy.
@fromtga.bsky.social is right: FPTP could allow any kind of dangerous populist to take power on a minority of the vote, or by taking over the ruling party.
PR would help safeguard our democracy.
Reposted by Rob Ford
Young people these days. Being all sensible and moderate and costing the country a fortune in lost tax revenue.
Interesting snippet from the OBR report. Alcohol duties revenue forecast notched down by an annual £1.7bn.
December 2, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Young people these days. Being all sensible and moderate and costing the country a fortune in lost tax revenue.
Reposted by Rob Ford
December 2, 2025 at 8:48 AM
If he regards the cut in national insurance as unaffordable then why doesn’t he, a PM with 400 Commons seats, not just say that publicly and reverse it?
Does he also believe in the Tooth Fairy? That, and other questions raised by this excellent piece: www.ft.com/content/cc83...
December 2, 2025 at 11:54 AM
If he regards the cut in national insurance as unaffordable then why doesn’t he, a PM with 400 Commons seats, not just say that publicly and reverse it?
Reposted by Rob Ford
It’s so weird. The serious right wing case against this government is not hard to make. Why do we get “£4bn of headroom is good actually”?!
But I’ve been assured by people having 5 day twitter meltdowns on this subject that this isn’t true
David Miles (of the OBR) at the Treasury Select Committee: Reeves’ speech was not inconsistent with the OBR’s assessment.
December 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
It’s so weird. The serious right wing case against this government is not hard to make. Why do we get “£4bn of headroom is good actually”?!
Reposted by Rob Ford
But we’ll price the UK out because we don’t value security more than protecting our industries?
Welcome to SAFE, Canada!
When like-minded partners join forces on security and defence in a turbulent world, our countries grow stronger, our industries benefit and our citizens are safer.
Our Joint Statement ↓
link.europa.eu/QCDtpr
When like-minded partners join forces on security and defence in a turbulent world, our countries grow stronger, our industries benefit and our citizens are safer.
Our Joint Statement ↓
link.europa.eu/QCDtpr
December 2, 2025 at 9:11 AM
But we’ll price the UK out because we don’t value security more than protecting our industries?
Reposted by Rob Ford
"You see, Christmas is not a holiday. It is an ideological apparatus of family unity and consumer fetishism. The magic of the film—what we enjoy without knowing—is this collision between sweet kitsch and brutal violence. This overlap is not accidental; it is the truth of Christmas under capitalism."
December 2, 2025 at 8:46 AM
"You see, Christmas is not a holiday. It is an ideological apparatus of family unity and consumer fetishism. The magic of the film—what we enjoy without knowing—is this collision between sweet kitsch and brutal violence. This overlap is not accidental; it is the truth of Christmas under capitalism."
Reposted by Rob Ford
Right, this is the thing, "the Budget is not honest", okay, sure, I'm with you, "because they made things seem worse than they are" - are you on glue?
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
December 1, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Right, this is the thing, "the Budget is not honest", okay, sure, I'm with you, "because they made things seem worse than they are" - are you on glue?
Reposted by Rob Ford
So many policy debates would be better understood (I’m not saying they would necessarily have better outcomes) if we used percentage figures. Tesco’s pre-tax profit of 4.5 per cent, for example.
I think there might be a case for retiring millions and billions from our vocabulary entirely, and expressing public spending as multiples of a house price.
"The government today committed to spending three streets of terraced housing in Middlesbrough on the NHS to cut waiting lists."
"The government today committed to spending three streets of terraced housing in Middlesbrough on the NHS to cut waiting lists."
December 1, 2025 at 3:50 PM
So many policy debates would be better understood (I’m not saying they would necessarily have better outcomes) if we used percentage figures. Tesco’s pre-tax profit of 4.5 per cent, for example.
Reposted by Rob Ford
Lucy White's overt racism - she wants Nus Ghsni banned from the Commons (birthplace), and Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel & Shabana Mahmood banned from office - may have finally gone too far for TalkTV. The GB News response is disingenuous.
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
www.theguardian.com
November 30, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Lucy White's overt racism - she wants Nus Ghsni banned from the Commons (birthplace), and Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel & Shabana Mahmood banned from office - may have finally gone too far for TalkTV. The GB News response is disingenuous.
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
Reposted by Rob Ford
Reposted by Rob Ford
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
www.ucl.ac.uk
November 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.
Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.
Apply 👇
Reposted by Rob Ford
Eleven years ago, I wrote to Tom Stoppard to ask about this coup de théâtre from 1949. It took me down an unexpected rabbit hole - in memory of Stoppard, here's what I found.
November 30, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Eleven years ago, I wrote to Tom Stoppard to ask about this coup de théâtre from 1949. It took me down an unexpected rabbit hole - in memory of Stoppard, here's what I found.
Reposted by Rob Ford
I am consistently amazed the Building Safety Regulator isn’t a much bigger story. It’s brought house building in London to a total halt, but it’s also brought cladding remedy works to a halt, too. Which is costing leaseholders FORTUNES, halting sales, and leaving people living in unsafe buildings.
... at the Building Safety Regulator - which has lead to 9 month delays at this stage alone:
www.building.co.uk/news/nine-mo...
www.building.co.uk/news/nine-mo...
Nine month wait to get building safety sign-off for new builds, regulator admits
When new regulations were introduced 18 months, planned target was to get decisions made with 12 weeks
www.building.co.uk
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I am consistently amazed the Building Safety Regulator isn’t a much bigger story. It’s brought house building in London to a total halt, but it’s also brought cladding remedy works to a halt, too. Which is costing leaseholders FORTUNES, halting sales, and leaving people living in unsafe buildings.
Reposted by Rob Ford
The correct argument from the right is surely not 'she lied in order to justify tax rises to pay for welfare spending (some of which they also supported)' it is 'there's at least £30bn of reckless assumptions here about how to secure the public finances':
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:11 AM
The correct argument from the right is surely not 'she lied in order to justify tax rises to pay for welfare spending (some of which they also supported)' it is 'there's at least £30bn of reckless assumptions here about how to secure the public finances':
Reposted by Rob Ford
Rachel Reeves's "headroom" is based on:
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Rachel Reeves's "headroom" is based on:
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
Reposted by Rob Ford
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
December 1, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
The unspoken truth here is that the "right" level of migration is "the one which makes voters stop saying migration is a problem en masse". In theory the big drop in numbers should reduce salience (they have been linked in past) but there are complications... 1/2
Its possible to maintain fiscal position while somewhat reducing numbers (via greater selectivity) but Labour government's language about net 205k being too high has not been thought through - just repeating language of net 600k, net 400k, net 340k as it dropped lower, quicker than they anticipated
December 1, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The unspoken truth here is that the "right" level of migration is "the one which makes voters stop saying migration is a problem en masse". In theory the big drop in numbers should reduce salience (they have been linked in past) but there are complications... 1/2