Was meant to be out this week but production gremlins have hit. Can be pre-ordered now and should be out mid Dec (so you get it before Xmas fingers crossed).

...and it is simply not plausible to argue that all the incumbents punished in 2024 "failed to do anything".

Its a good question, but Merz, Starmer and Trump constitute three wildly varying style of leadership, in three very different contexts, and in all three cases the outcome has been the same. And the anti-incumbent trend in 2024 voting was near-universal (tho it has weakened since)...

Ah I see! Yes, that makes sense - or indeed whether a govt goes down the route of just enriching itself or phoning it in...

Only if there is a form of individual leadership and personality which doesn't just result in people hating you quickly?

The obvious (and depressing) answers are groups who don't care about (a) and (b) - the crooked, the corrupt, the power obsessed, egotists and fanatics...not a great incentive structure is it?

Another thought: Maybe the blind (or at least heavily biased) loyalty of partisanship wasn't entirely a bad thing, in moderation, if it added ballast to the whole political system?

2/2 ...the prospect of re-election is one of the main factors keeping leaders honest and keeping legislators loyal. If voters hate governments 75% plus of the time, that may encourage more corrupt, lazy and incompetent leadership, and more chaotic and rebellious incumbent parties.

Finally a reminder - "The British General Election of 2024" officially goes on sale *tomorrow* (so the publishers tell me). So you should be able to buy it for immediate delivery from then - either on Springer's website (where you can claim the discount) or from your favourite onlike bookstore.

I am a big believer in value of polling - public information provided by accountable firms using clear methods is far better than the alternative - selective information and rumours. But polling is always limited and selective, and as what we know changes, the picture we paint may change too. /ends

Starmer is 2nd Labour leader to benefit from this shift in polling technology. In 2017, the very first MRP models helped to shift the narrative in Corbyn's favour by projecting shock gains in seats like Canterbury. In 2024, MRPs may have prevented the narrative shifting against Starmer.

Imagine an alternative 2024 election campaign with no MRPs, and where Labour support in national polling drops, and drops, and drops...wouldn't there have been a lot of speculation about Lab fumbling the Ming vase? About Starmer failing to seal the deal? Yet instead this was barely noticed...

Yet while MRPs clearly picked up real phenomena on the ground, we may wonder if they also helped shape the choices they were reporting, both by making local tactical co-ordination easier (voters & parties could see who was competitive in each seat) and by shaping the overall campaign narrative.

This is because MRP's correctly noted the much improved efficiency of Labour's vote - they were winning where it mattered, in target seats. Tactical anti-Tory voting may also have depressed their national share, as LAb voters in Con-LD seats particularly switched to LDs to ensure local Tory defeat.

One reason this decline wasn't noticed is fragmentation - Lab and Con were both falling, Farage was making the weather, Greens and Lib Dems were also rising. Another, perhaps even more important, was MRPs - Labour's sinking national popularity wasn't noticed as MRP's continued to project landslides.

Tory blunders were the most noticed & discussed events during the campaign and have framed how the 2024 election is remembered. And the Tories did indeed go backwards on their way to a record defeat. But Labour declined further & faster - Lab lead over Con fell from 25 to 15 points in 6 wks.

Here's a graph of how party support evolved daily through the campaign in 2024, according to the BES internet panel. The biggest losers from the 2024 campaign were...Labour, who fell from mid 40s to high 30s (and were overstated in final polling). Big winners were Reform, esp post Farage return

Time for day 2 of the "British General Election of 2024" advent calender. Who won & lost the campaign last summer? Which parties gained ground in polls? Who fell back? In the next post, we find out but first: here's a thread detailing how you can claim your discounted copy! bsky.app/profile/robf...