Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester.
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Author of "The British General Election of 2024", "The British General Election of 2019" & "Brexitland"
My Substack, "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/
https://www.robertford.net/
Here's a graph of how party support evolved daily through the campaign in 2024, according to the BES internet panel. The biggest losers from the 2024 campaign were...Labour, who fell from mid 40s to high 30s (and were overstated in final polling). Big winners were Reform, esp post Farage return
December 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Here's a graph of how party support evolved daily through the campaign in 2024, according to the BES internet panel. The biggest losers from the 2024 campaign were...Labour, who fell from mid 40s to high 30s (and were overstated in final polling). Big winners were Reform, esp post Farage return
Day 1 in the bag! 100 press ups done, arms a bit sore, but very happy with donations - thanks to all who have given so far. One down, 30 to go...
Here's the link for donations again: www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-he...
Here's the link for donations again: www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-he...
December 1, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Day 1 in the bag! 100 press ups done, arms a bit sore, but very happy with donations - thanks to all who have given so far. One down, 30 to go...
Here's the link for donations again: www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-he...
Here's the link for donations again: www.gofundme.com/f/help-us-he...
This graph shows what the public thought Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend on every day of the campaign, and what voters themselves preferred (black). The public expected tax rises from Lab, tax cuts from Cons, and what they themselves wanted was...tax rises (tho less than Lab)
December 1, 2025 at 10:37 AM
This graph shows what the public thought Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend on every day of the campaign, and what voters themselves preferred (black). The public expected tax rises from Lab, tax cuts from Cons, and what they themselves wanted was...tax rises (tho less than Lab)
Just to prove I am indeed committed to this madness here’s two photos of me doing my first 25 this morning taken by a very amused daughter.
December 1, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Just to prove I am indeed committed to this madness here’s two photos of me doing my first 25 this morning taken by a very amused daughter.
Orwell diagnosed this problem generations ago
November 27, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Orwell diagnosed this problem generations ago
You'll be hearing plenty more on BGE24 from me in coming days and weeks - I have a book to sell after all - but for now a little amuse bouche from the endnotes - *was* Liz Truss really outlasted by a lettuce?
November 26, 2025 at 10:31 AM
You'll be hearing plenty more on BGE24 from me in coming days and weeks - I have a book to sell after all - but for now a little amuse bouche from the endnotes - *was* Liz Truss really outlasted by a lettuce?
Richard Feynman once wrote about "Cargo Cult Science" - "they follow all the apparent precepts and forms, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land." I wonder if we currently have a Cargo Cult model of messaging and media management in British politics
November 21, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Richard Feynman once wrote about "Cargo Cult Science" - "they follow all the apparent precepts and forms, but they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land." I wonder if we currently have a Cargo Cult model of messaging and media management in British politics
From @philipjcowley.bsky.social - thanks to a happy coincidence we have a much more rigorous than usual understanding of the impact of Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech. As Cowley puts it "It is not obvious this was the intended outcome"
November 20, 2025 at 1:27 PM
From @philipjcowley.bsky.social - thanks to a happy coincidence we have a much more rigorous than usual understanding of the impact of Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech. As Cowley puts it "It is not obvious this was the intended outcome"
More Bluth Labour than Blue Labour, amirite?
November 18, 2025 at 2:32 PM
More Bluth Labour than Blue Labour, amirite?
Starmer's conference speech last month
November 18, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Starmer's conference speech last month
November 14, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Another argument you see often re: manifesto pledges is "look at what happened to the Lib Dems. That proves breaking a high profile manifesto pledge is electoral suicide." Except...that's not what the polling story of 2010-15 shows at all.
November 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Another argument you see often re: manifesto pledges is "look at what happened to the Lib Dems. That proves breaking a high profile manifesto pledge is electoral suicide." Except...that's not what the polling story of 2010-15 shows at all.
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
November 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
"We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"
November 14, 2025 at 9:32 AM
"We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"
"Kids, you tried your best, and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try."
November 14, 2025 at 9:30 AM
"Kids, you tried your best, and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try."
Finally, a bit of a reality check from our 2024 election book (out soon!) for everyone hyperventilating about collapsing public trust in the BBC - free to air TV (mostly the BBC) is still the most widely consumed and widely trusted source of news - blows print, online & social media out of the water
November 11, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Finally, a bit of a reality check from our 2024 election book (out soon!) for everyone hyperventilating about collapsing public trust in the BBC - free to air TV (mostly the BBC) is still the most widely consumed and widely trusted source of news - blows print, online & social media out of the water
Funny the things proof reading reminds you of - it is less than two years ago that Nigel Farage was appearing on 'I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!'
November 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Funny the things proof reading reminds you of - it is less than two years ago that Nigel Farage was appearing on 'I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out Of Here!'
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 AM
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
While I broadly agree I think (perhaps cynically) that there is (now and always) a large “can’t someone else pay for it?” tribe in the Labour membership which is easily attracted to “make the rich pay for all the good things args”. Isn’t just Green curious who like avoiding hard options
November 8, 2025 at 12:09 PM
While I broadly agree I think (perhaps cynically) that there is (now and always) a large “can’t someone else pay for it?” tribe in the Labour membership which is easily attracted to “make the rich pay for all the good things args”. Isn’t just Green curious who like avoiding hard options
We illustrated Johnson’s rise with the following cartoons
November 5, 2025 at 8:25 PM
We illustrated Johnson’s rise with the following cartoons
Did he read the bit in Lord of The Rings where a creepy toxic guy filled the local ruler’s head with idiotic poison and wrecked everything in that kingdom until the king came to his senses and chucked the toxic creep out?
October 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Did he read the bit in Lord of The Rings where a creepy toxic guy filled the local ruler’s head with idiotic poison and wrecked everything in that kingdom until the king came to his senses and chucked the toxic creep out?