John Holbein
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johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social

Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.

I share social science.

Political science 58%
Sociology 13%
Pinned
Did you know that your siblings can influence whether you vote?

Well, because of our new working paper you do!

@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay

I was also bored and pulled up the replication package.

The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:

Yes. Plus this...

bsky.app/profile/chan...
Thanks to @johnholbein1.bsky.social I learned about this paper on rent control in Berlin.

Because I was marking, I immediately downloaded the replication materials.

bsky.app/profile/john...
Um, ok...

This paper forthcoming at the JOP provides evidence that rent control in Germany actually made tenants MASSIVELY *less* NIMBY.

This result was in the opposite direction of the authors' pre-registered expectations.

And the effect sizes are, truly, massive.

Why aren't families having more babies?

This brand new paper argues that part of the reason is because childcare is so expensive.

"A 10% increase in the price of childcare leads to a 5.7% decrease in the birth rate"

abigaildow.com/assets/docs/...

The Fragile Splines would make for a killer band name

Pump the breaks, team!!!

bsky.app/profile/john...
Kudos to @chanret.bsky.social for downloading the replication data on this paper. This work is so important.

As I suspected, the key result looks pretty flimsy.
Thanks to @johnholbein1.bsky.social I learned about this paper on rent control in Berlin.

Because I was marking, I immediately downloaded the replication materials.

bsky.app/profile/john...

Kudos to @chanret.bsky.social for downloading the replication data on this paper. This work is so important.

As I suspected, the key result looks pretty flimsy.
Thanks to @johnholbein1.bsky.social I learned about this paper on rent control in Berlin.

Because I was marking, I immediately downloaded the replication materials.

bsky.app/profile/john...
Um, ok...

This paper forthcoming at the JOP provides evidence that rent control in Germany actually made tenants MASSIVELY *less* NIMBY.

This result was in the opposite direction of the authors' pre-registered expectations.

And the effect sizes are, truly, massive.
Thanks to @johnholbein1.bsky.social I learned about this paper on rent control in Berlin.

Because I was marking, I immediately downloaded the replication materials.

bsky.app/profile/john...
Um, ok...

This paper forthcoming at the JOP provides evidence that rent control in Germany actually made tenants MASSIVELY *less* NIMBY.

This result was in the opposite direction of the authors' pre-registered expectations.

And the effect sizes are, truly, massive.

People are missing the rest of the thread.

I'm a bit skeptical of this result.

bsky.app/profile/john...
I'm not one to be skeptical just because an effect size is large; I know others who are. But, let's just say I'm a bit gobsmacked by these effect sizes.

Damning overview of the nudging literature.

"[We] provide the most comprehensive synthesis of the effectiveness of nudging."

"We find a small aggregated effect size."

"[Our results show] the urgent need for higher quality, preregistered meta-analyses to clarify the true impact [of nudging]."

Reposted by Colin F. Camerer

I guess, in a weird way, this typo--it should be "DECREASED a NIMBYism index"--provides some evidence that I'm not using AI to write my posts.

I'm very human!

Mistakes are human validation checks! :)
According to the authors' estimates, rent control increased a NIMBYism index by 80% of a standard deviation. (Not a typo)

Put differently, rent-control made people 37 percentage points more likely to support local-level construction. (Not a typo)

I guess, in a weird way, this provides some evidence that I'm not using AI to write my posts.

I'm very human!

"Does Rent Control Turn Tenants Into NIMBYs?"

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

*DECREASED NIMBYism.

lol. There is a typo. Decreased.

Again, I'm gobsmacked. And a little skeptical. But a quick glance doesn't reveal any major issues. I'd have to dig into the data, though.

80% of a standard deviation. Sheesh.

McCrary test for precise sorting--which I, admittedly, don't love as a test--is not significant, but there may be a jump.

Covariate balance looks pretty good--just based on looking at their figures.

The second is in time--rent control was not in place in new builds on/after January 1, 2014.

For those interested, here's a bit more on the design that they are using to estimate the causal effects of rent control.

The authors leverage two discontinuities to estimate the effect of rent control.

The first is in price cap cutoffs per sq. ft.

I'm not one to be skeptical just because an effect size is large; I know others who are. But, let's just say I'm a bit gobsmacked by these effect sizes.

According to the authors' estimates, rent control increased a NIMBYism index by 80% of a standard deviation. (Not a typo)

Put differently, rent-control made people 37 percentage points more likely to support local-level construction. (Not a typo)