John Holbein

@johnholbein1.bsky.social

15K followers 4.3K following 1.3K posts

Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.

I share social science.

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Political science 58%

Sociology 13%

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Jun 12

Did you know that your siblings can influence whether you vote?

Well, because of our new working paper you do!

@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

The author of this paper is Simon Greenhill.

simondgreenhill.github.io

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

"Noise Pollution and Infant Health"

simondgreenhill.github.io/Greenhill_No...

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Nighttime noise pollution is very harmful for infant health.

Why?

Disruptions to maternal sleep.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Look at the variation in sound pollution by the distance to the nearest rail line.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

The costs of noise pollution in terms of harms to infant health are largest Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Look at this map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in NYC, San Francisco, and Denver.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Look at this beautiful map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in the U.S.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

The negative effects of noise on infant health are largest where it is loudest.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Look at the variation in noise levels people are exposed to over the course of the day/week.

Fascinating!

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

Noise pollution from electric passenger rail harms babies' health.

"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."

Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.

This is such a cool paper!

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

"Do Unions Shape Political Ideologies at Work?"

arxiv.org/abs/2209.02637

Do Unions Shape Political Ideologies at Work?

Labor unions influence economic outcomes not only through bargaining with employers over work contracts but also via political activities that can profoundly shape political systems. In unionized work...

arxiv.org

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d

When firms unionize it makes their workers become even more liberal.

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2d

"Does Distance from Home Matter in Prison? Effects on Visitation and Recidivism"

daniellenemschoff.github.io/files/nemsch...

Reposted by David G. Rand, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Dean Eckles

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2d

We should probably be placing incarcerated people in prisons closest to their homes.

Why?

Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.

Really?

Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2d

"Social Capital in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Six Billion Friendships"

osf.io/preprints/so...

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 2d

Poor folks have (comparatively) few rich friends on Facebook.

Reposted by John Holbein, Justin H. Kirkland

Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 3d

A word of wisdom from @cdsamii.bsky.social re credibility revolution and survey experiments: your conjoint or list experiment is not a policy intervention with real causal effects -- it's a measurement tool.

A lot of smart folks are still confused about it for some reason!

cyrussamii.com?p=4168

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 4d

thanks for writing the paper!

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Althaus

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 4d

"Prediction Markets? The Accuracy and Efficiency of $2.4 Billion in the 2024 Presidential Election"

osf.io/preprints/so...

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 4d

Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk

Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient

PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time

Kalshi? 78%

Polymarket? 67%

Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage