John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.
I share social science.
I share social science.
December 5, 2025 at 7:16 PM
December 5, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Nighttime noise pollution is very harmful for infant health.
Why?
Disruptions to maternal sleep.
Why?
Disruptions to maternal sleep.
December 5, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Nighttime noise pollution is very harmful for infant health.
Why?
Disruptions to maternal sleep.
Why?
Disruptions to maternal sleep.
Look at the variation in sound pollution by the distance to the nearest rail line.
December 5, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Look at the variation in sound pollution by the distance to the nearest rail line.
The costs of noise pollution in terms of harms to infant health are largest Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans.
December 5, 2025 at 7:13 PM
The costs of noise pollution in terms of harms to infant health are largest Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans.
Look at this map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in NYC, San Francisco, and Denver.
December 5, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Look at this map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in NYC, San Francisco, and Denver.
Look at this beautiful map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in the U.S.
December 5, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Look at this beautiful map, which plots predicted median nighttime noise levels in the U.S.
The negative effects of noise on infant health are largest where it is loudest.
December 5, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The negative effects of noise on infant health are largest where it is loudest.
Look at the variation in noise levels people are exposed to over the course of the day/week.
Fascinating!
Fascinating!
December 5, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Look at the variation in noise levels people are exposed to over the course of the day/week.
Fascinating!
Fascinating!
Noise pollution from electric passenger rail harms babies' health.
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
December 5, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Noise pollution from electric passenger rail harms babies' health.
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
"I estimate that the annual cost of noise pollution due to harms to health at birth is $9.8 billion."
Black, Hispanic, and the poorest Americans disproportionately bear these costs.
This is such a cool paper!
When firms unionize it makes their workers become even more liberal.
December 5, 2025 at 6:37 PM
When firms unionize it makes their workers become even more liberal.
"Does Distance from Home Matter in Prison? Effects on Visitation and Recidivism"
daniellenemschoff.github.io/files/nemsch...
daniellenemschoff.github.io/files/nemsch...
December 4, 2025 at 1:46 PM
"Does Distance from Home Matter in Prison? Effects on Visitation and Recidivism"
daniellenemschoff.github.io/files/nemsch...
daniellenemschoff.github.io/files/nemsch...
We should probably be placing incarcerated people in prisons closest to their homes.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
December 4, 2025 at 1:46 PM
We should probably be placing incarcerated people in prisons closest to their homes.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
Why?
Assigning individuals to prisons closer to their home reduces recidivism.
Really?
Yep. Being placed close to one's home increases social contacts that appear to reduce reoffending.
December 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Poor folks have (comparatively) few rich friends on Facebook.
December 4, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Poor folks have (comparatively) few rich friends on Facebook.
"Prediction Markets? The Accuracy and Efficiency of $2.4 Billion in the 2024 Presidential Election"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
December 2, 2025 at 7:42 PM
"Prediction Markets? The Accuracy and Efficiency of $2.4 Billion in the 2024 Presidential Election"
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
December 2, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Go home prediction markets: you’re drunk
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Political prediction markets moved billions in 2024, but new evidence shows they weren’t very accurate or efficient
PredictIt beat chance 93% of the time
Kalshi? 78%
Polymarket? 67%
Big price divergences, weak/negative correlations, & rampant arbitrage
Source: "Nightmare neighbours: Proximity to gambling shops and gambling harms"
Evidence comes from the U.K.
osf.io/preprints/so...
Evidence comes from the U.K.
osf.io/preprints/so...
December 2, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Source: "Nightmare neighbours: Proximity to gambling shops and gambling harms"
Evidence comes from the U.K.
osf.io/preprints/so...
Evidence comes from the U.K.
osf.io/preprints/so...
Living near a gambling establishment increases the likelihood of people becoming problematic gamblers.
December 2, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Living near a gambling establishment increases the likelihood of people becoming problematic gamblers.
Empirical papers by subfield.
December 2, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Empirical papers by subfield.
December 2, 2025 at 7:09 PM
December 2, 2025 at 7:08 PM
In political science, sample sizes, placebo tests, preanalysis plans, and power analyses are on the rise.
December 2, 2025 at 7:07 PM
In political science, sample sizes, placebo tests, preanalysis plans, and power analyses are on the rise.