Ralph Scott
@ralphscott.bsky.social
Leverhulme research fellow in politics at Bristol uni. ITV psephologist.
Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things.
ralphscott.co.uk
Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things.
ralphscott.co.uk
Pinned
Ralph Scott
@ralphscott.bsky.social
· Jul 14
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
Reposted by Ralph Scott
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
renewal.org.uk
November 28, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
What's interesting about this is how bad faith it is - Harry Cole is not poorly educated (Sevenoaks and Edinburgh), and I remember someone in Westminster being awe-filled that Stig Abell had read through the complete works of Shakespeare on his daily commute into the Sun
if someone had recently given a speech as eloquent and intellectually complex yet clear-minded as the Thatcher speech Stephen mentioned, it would have led to Harry Cole hitting his big red head like an angry chimp and writing in the Sun that Big Words Bad Why Hate Britain Like This? Boo!
November 28, 2025 at 4:09 PM
What's interesting about this is how bad faith it is - Harry Cole is not poorly educated (Sevenoaks and Edinburgh), and I remember someone in Westminster being awe-filled that Stig Abell had read through the complete works of Shakespeare on his daily commute into the Sun
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Agree with every word of this
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
November 28, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Agree with every word of this
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25
The govt has no near-term replacement
It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Do any people who study German politics have a postal code to Bundestag constituency look-up file?
Hat jemand, der sich mit deutscher Politik beschäftigt, eine Zuordnungstabelle von Postleitzahlen zu Bundestagswahlkreisen?
#polisky
Hat jemand, der sich mit deutscher Politik beschäftigt, eine Zuordnungstabelle von Postleitzahlen zu Bundestagswahlkreisen?
#polisky
November 27, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Do any people who study German politics have a postal code to Bundestag constituency look-up file?
Hat jemand, der sich mit deutscher Politik beschäftigt, eine Zuordnungstabelle von Postleitzahlen zu Bundestagswahlkreisen?
#polisky
Hat jemand, der sich mit deutscher Politik beschäftigt, eine Zuordnungstabelle von Postleitzahlen zu Bundestagswahlkreisen?
#polisky
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Spot on. The terms of the plan 2 loan are utterly usurious. Notably the budget has not frozen just the threshold for repayments at a marginal rate of 9%, dragging more and more graduates into it, but it also freezes the interest of those loans which is as much as 6.2%! Which is ridiculous!!
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax
The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax
www.newstatesman.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Spot on. The terms of the plan 2 loan are utterly usurious. Notably the budget has not frozen just the threshold for repayments at a marginal rate of 9%, dragging more and more graduates into it, but it also freezes the interest of those loans which is as much as 6.2%! Which is ridiculous!!
Reposted by Ralph Scott
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Reposted by Ralph Scott
One of the giants of social psychology was a serial sexual harasser.
This new report reveals how Miles Hewstone touched, bullied, and sexual harassed numerous women during his 18 years at the University of Oxford. It's amazing how often bullying and sexual harassment go together in academia.
This new report reveals how Miles Hewstone touched, bullied, and sexual harassed numerous women during his 18 years at the University of Oxford. It's amazing how often bullying and sexual harassment go together in academia.
November 19, 2025 at 10:30 PM
One of the giants of social psychology was a serial sexual harasser.
This new report reveals how Miles Hewstone touched, bullied, and sexual harassed numerous women during his 18 years at the University of Oxford. It's amazing how often bullying and sexual harassment go together in academia.
This new report reveals how Miles Hewstone touched, bullied, and sexual harassed numerous women during his 18 years at the University of Oxford. It's amazing how often bullying and sexual harassment go together in academia.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
International student fee levy details confirmed in Budget document: flat fee charged on institutions "of £925 per student per year of study, starting in August 2028 academic year 2028-29".
No charge for first 220 students per year.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6926eb...
No charge for first 220 students per year.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6926eb...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
November 26, 2025 at 1:49 PM
International student fee levy details confirmed in Budget document: flat fee charged on institutions "of £925 per student per year of study, starting in August 2028 academic year 2028-29".
No charge for first 220 students per year.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6926eb...
No charge for first 220 students per year.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6926eb...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
BREAKING The entire Budget has leaked early
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
November 26, 2025 at 12:02 PM
BREAKING The entire Budget has leaked early
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
- £22BN of headroom
- £26bn tax rises
- Freeze on tax thresholds
- Pay per mileage confirmed
- Changes to capital gains
Reposted by Ralph Scott
'Exiting the market' is such a crap euphemism. It's not like the 'university' will then go and apply all its assets to another market. Those assets (human and non-human) will be dispersed, wasted, destroyed. Un-creative destruction. Which we can't afford as a society.
Chief exec of OfS 'said the OfS believes there are 24 institutions at risk of exiting the market in the next 12 months, seven of which are large providers with more than 3,000 students. There are another 25 or so institutions of various sizes at risk over a two- to three-year period, she added.'
Seven ‘large providers’ at risk of going under in the next year
Skills minister says no higher education institutions are at imminent risk of collapse this year but OfS confirms more than 20 providers are being closely monitored
www.timeshighereducation.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:54 AM
'Exiting the market' is such a crap euphemism. It's not like the 'university' will then go and apply all its assets to another market. Those assets (human and non-human) will be dispersed, wasted, destroyed. Un-creative destruction. Which we can't afford as a society.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Thrilled to share my new article in Political Psychology: “The psychology of political attitudinal volatility.” In it, I attempt to answer why do some people change their political views more than others? Open access at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
November 25, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Thrilled to share my new article in Political Psychology: “The psychology of political attitudinal volatility.” In it, I attempt to answer why do some people change their political views more than others? Open access at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
Reposted by Ralph Scott
They remain the only government in my lifetime without a theory of how economic growth happens and a determination that it definitely not be through universities, immigration, high skilled services, tax simplification, trade relations etc
November 24, 2025 at 8:34 AM
They remain the only government in my lifetime without a theory of how economic growth happens and a determination that it definitely not be through universities, immigration, high skilled services, tax simplification, trade relations etc
Reposted by Ralph Scott
For context
- International fees across UK unis is £10.3 billlion
- About a fifth of total income of about £52 billion/year
(International fees 23% of total income in 2023/24 v 5% in 90s)
- A 6% levy on international fees about £620m: so a bit above 1% of total university income, but uneven impact
- International fees across UK unis is £10.3 billlion
- About a fifth of total income of about £52 billion/year
(International fees 23% of total income in 2023/24 v 5% in 90s)
- A 6% levy on international fees about £620m: so a bit above 1% of total university income, but uneven impact
November 23, 2025 at 10:47 PM
For context
- International fees across UK unis is £10.3 billlion
- About a fifth of total income of about £52 billion/year
(International fees 23% of total income in 2023/24 v 5% in 90s)
- A 6% levy on international fees about £620m: so a bit above 1% of total university income, but uneven impact
- International fees across UK unis is £10.3 billlion
- About a fifth of total income of about £52 billion/year
(International fees 23% of total income in 2023/24 v 5% in 90s)
- A 6% levy on international fees about £620m: so a bit above 1% of total university income, but uneven impact
Reposted by Ralph Scott
'Ahead of the autumn budget on 26 November, Universities UK (UUK) has calculated that funding per student for teaching in 2025-26 is at 64 per cent of the level it was in 2015-16.' 1/3
University teaching income ‘£6.4 billon less’ than 10 years ago
UUK says shortfall in teaching money is ‘baked in’ to higher education funding system as institutions brace for new tax in upcoming budget
www.timeshighereducation.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:45 AM
'Ahead of the autumn budget on 26 November, Universities UK (UUK) has calculated that funding per student for teaching in 2025-26 is at 64 per cent of the level it was in 2015-16.' 1/3
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
November 21, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
Reposted by Ralph Scott
I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.
November 20, 2025 at 8:34 PM
I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Men will spend billions on building their own AI rather than go to therapy.
November 20, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Men will spend billions on building their own AI rather than go to therapy.
Love this, particularly the pen portraits
🔔 New post 🔔 Ok, this was a bit of a 'take a deep breath' moment! - I'm intrigued about how much pushback I'll get.
The disiciplines theory of government
Are a small number of legacy disciplines dragging the whole operation down?
medium.com/@jamestplunk...
The disiciplines theory of government
Are a small number of legacy disciplines dragging the whole operation down?
medium.com/@jamestplunk...
The disciplines theory of government
Are legacy disciplines dragging the whole operation down?
medium.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Love this, particularly the pen portraits
Reposted by Ralph Scott
The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
November 19, 2025 at 11:52 AM
The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours
No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands)
UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany)
Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
Private equity bilking UK consumers, example #3745
November 19, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Private equity bilking UK consumers, example #3745
Reposted by Ralph Scott
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 7:16 PM
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
If I could repost this 1000 times!
If you want to control something, the most basic thing you need are accurate data. British policy making is strewn with examples of failing to understand that fundamental point.
November 18, 2025 at 11:37 AM
If I could repost this 1000 times!
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Look at the drop in October when everyone thought Income Tax was going to rise. 4.7% looks like the target now.
November 14, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Look at the drop in October when everyone thought Income Tax was going to rise. 4.7% looks like the target now.
Reposted by Ralph Scott
Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...
November 14, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...