G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
Americans have turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and say it too often resorts to violence
www.gelliottmorris.com
more americans than ever say that ICE should be abolished www.gelliottmorris.com/p/support-fo...
Past polling on Trump using the National Guard to assist ICE with deportations was pretty negative for the president (51-37). I expect using the Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty troops would be even more unpopular
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris)
Last September, we polled Americans on support for Trump using the National Guard to assist ICE on immigration enforcement in Chicago and Los Angeles. That was unpopular 51-37, and the president had…
substack.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Past polling on Trump using the National Guard to assist ICE with deportations was pretty negative for the president (51-37). I expect using the Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty troops would be even more unpopular
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
substack.com/@gelliottmor...
I made a little data interactive that lets you forecast House and Senate midterm seat loss based on presidential approval in each month of midterm years. Free to read projects.gelliottmorris.com/midterms-app...
January 19, 2026 at 1:01 PM
I made a little data interactive that lets you forecast House and Senate midterm seat loss based on presidential approval in each month of midterm years. Free to read projects.gelliottmorris.com/midterms-app...
he is dressed like that on purpose
Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino marches through Minneapolis surrounded by federal agents, shouting at American citizens.
This isn’t about deporting “the worst of the worst.” It’s about deliberately sowing fear and chaos in cities that oppose the Trump regime
ht: @rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social
This isn’t about deporting “the worst of the worst.” It’s about deliberately sowing fear and chaos in cities that oppose the Trump regime
ht: @rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social
January 18, 2026 at 9:24 PM
he is dressed like that on purpose
Losing my mind at the Dems with their billionaire backers and powerful friends who have come up with the brilliant strategy that the party should adopt the policy positions of the avg MAGA voter — apparently ignoring that independents and swing voters even exist. Is this what $40 million gets you??
January 18, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Losing my mind at the Dems with their billionaire backers and powerful friends who have come up with the brilliant strategy that the party should adopt the policy positions of the avg MAGA voter — apparently ignoring that independents and swing voters even exist. Is this what $40 million gets you??
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
hopefully this means that the centrism-pilled consultant class (who unfortunately have the ear of democratic electeds) has finally come around to the data-backed idea that the administration is not popular wrt immigration enforcement
Gallego ("moderate" Dem) is going with "ICE needs to be totally torn down" (not "reform and retrain"). This is a pivot point for the country on immigration. You have been seeing this in the data for a while, and now officials are snapping to the public opinion www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
January 18, 2026 at 8:36 PM
hopefully this means that the centrism-pilled consultant class (who unfortunately have the ear of democratic electeds) has finally come around to the data-backed idea that the administration is not popular wrt immigration enforcement
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
This isn't a left-right ideological issue. But it blows me away that anyone who is actually anti-Trump would think running back Joe Biden/Merrick Garland 2.0 will work the second time. No political party can tolerate a very large, armed secret police force committed to murdering its voters.
January 18, 2026 at 8:33 PM
This isn't a left-right ideological issue. But it blows me away that anyone who is actually anti-Trump would think running back Joe Biden/Merrick Garland 2.0 will work the second time. No political party can tolerate a very large, armed secret police force committed to murdering its voters.
"Democratic registered voters are far more motivated right now than Republicans. While the party has a 5-point edge on the generic ballot, among those who say they’re deeply motivated to vote, that advantage expands to a massive 16 points." www.cnn.com/2026/01/18/p...
CNN poll: Democrats are deeply motivated for the midterms despite having dismal views of party leaders | CNN Politics
The Democratic Party has a deeply motivated base and a clear advantage on the generic congressional ballot ahead of this fall’s midterms despite dismal impressions of its current leaders in Congress, ...
www.cnn.com
January 18, 2026 at 8:26 PM
"Democratic registered voters are far more motivated right now than Republicans. While the party has a 5-point edge on the generic ballot, among those who say they’re deeply motivated to vote, that advantage expands to a massive 16 points." www.cnn.com/2026/01/18/p...
Gallego ("moderate" Dem) is going with "ICE needs to be totally torn down" (not "reform and retrain"). This is a pivot point for the country on immigration. You have been seeing this in the data for a while, and now officials are snapping to the public opinion www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
January 18, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Gallego ("moderate" Dem) is going with "ICE needs to be totally torn down" (not "reform and retrain"). This is a pivot point for the country on immigration. You have been seeing this in the data for a while, and now officials are snapping to the public opinion www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
Donald Trump's net approval rating right now is currently worse than bush's was after Katrina www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
January 18, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Donald Trump's net approval rating right now is currently worse than bush's was after Katrina www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data
Democracy is a big reason why Trump is unpopular, at least according to the real words of the people who disapprove of Trump!
4/ And it suggests that, contra what a lot of folks in both the consultant class and on here seem to think, people really do see and care about process, and that campaigning on democratic values in particular might be fruitful for Dems.
January 18, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Democracy is a big reason why Trump is unpopular, at least according to the real words of the people who disapprove of Trump!
Recapping the week in polls: Identification with the Republican Party approaches a new low since 2008, and a majority of Americans say Trump has the wrong priorities and does not care about people like them.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
Americans say Trump has the wrong priorities
Your weekly political data roundup for January 18, 2026
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Recapping the week in polls: Identification with the Republican Party approaches a new low since 2008, and a majority of Americans say Trump has the wrong priorities and does not care about people like them.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
here's a little treat for everyone else who has insomnia right now so is vibe coding to sleep projects.gelliottmorris.com/trump-approv...
January 18, 2026 at 5:58 AM
here's a little treat for everyone else who has insomnia right now so is vibe coding to sleep projects.gelliottmorris.com/trump-approv...
Was just on w/ @chrislhayes.bsky.social talking about the impact ICE is having on public opinion toward immigration and Trump’s second term in general. The bottom line is that people hate the violence against Americans, and this is moving a significant number of people against Trump in a new way
January 17, 2026 at 2:50 AM
Was just on w/ @chrislhayes.bsky.social talking about the impact ICE is having on public opinion toward immigration and Trump’s second term in general. The bottom line is that people hate the violence against Americans, and this is moving a significant number of people against Trump in a new way
Trump’s net job approval rating right now is actually lower than it was at this point in his first term
January 17, 2026 at 12:18 AM
Trump’s net job approval rating right now is actually lower than it was at this point in his first term
everyone who was mad about Trump's "dictator on day one" promise in 2024 has been fully vindicated. and if you were part of the crowd saying it was trump derangement syndrome to take him seriously i don't think we can fully trust your judgment about where his 2nd term is headed
January 16, 2026 at 4:59 PM
everyone who was mad about Trump's "dictator on day one" promise in 2024 has been fully vindicated. and if you were part of the crowd saying it was trump derangement syndrome to take him seriously i don't think we can fully trust your judgment about where his 2nd term is headed
New party identification polling from Gallup this week shows Americans are moving against Trump faster than they did in his first term. Adults were R+4 in 2024, now D+8. That 12-pt drop is 3x the change in the first year of his first term.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-t...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-t...
Backlash to Trump has been higher in his second term
Gallup's latest data shows Republican party identification down 6 points in Trump's second term — three times the decline in 2017
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 16, 2026 at 1:01 PM
New party identification polling from Gallup this week shows Americans are moving against Trump faster than they did in his first term. Adults were R+4 in 2024, now D+8. That 12-pt drop is 3x the change in the first year of his first term.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-t...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-t...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Given the chaos in Minnesota and elsewhere, it's remarkable that Trump's approval ratings have remained so stable, yet the data (via @gelliottmorris.com) suggests his specific ratings on deportations have been declining gradually for a few months - but Trump fares far worse on the economy...
January 16, 2026 at 1:28 AM
Given the chaos in Minnesota and elsewhere, it's remarkable that Trump's approval ratings have remained so stable, yet the data (via @gelliottmorris.com) suggests his specific ratings on deportations have been declining gradually for a few months - but Trump fares far worse on the economy...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
Real Clear Politics has some polling that is really sus and not fully legit. I would follow polling from @gelliottmorris.com he's got some really good data out for approval rating and the midterms. Follow his polling data.
January 16, 2026 at 2:01 AM
Real Clear Politics has some polling that is really sus and not fully legit. I would follow polling from @gelliottmorris.com he's got some really good data out for approval rating and the midterms. Follow his polling data.
“Reform and retrain” ICE is some seriously weak shit. Call it laboratory liberalism. The data clearly justifies a more aggressive approach. “Reduce ICE funds and restore ACA spending” probably the most popular message rn.
What voter is moved to vote D by “retraining” ICE? Come on
What voter is moved to vote D by “retraining” ICE? Come on
January 15, 2026 at 8:28 PM
“Reform and retrain” ICE is some seriously weak shit. Call it laboratory liberalism. The data clearly justifies a more aggressive approach. “Reduce ICE funds and restore ACA spending” probably the most popular message rn.
What voter is moved to vote D by “retraining” ICE? Come on
What voter is moved to vote D by “retraining” ICE? Come on
By using brutal force against Americans, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration. Will they take it?
An extra post recapping new numbers about ICE out this week:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
An extra post recapping new numbers about ICE out this week:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
ICE is now a 70-30 issue — against Trump
By using brutal force against Americans, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration. Will they take it?
www.gelliottmorris.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM
By using brutal force against Americans, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration. Will they take it?
An extra post recapping new numbers about ICE out this week:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
An extra post recapping new numbers about ICE out this week:
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
New CNN polling:
Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer.
www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...
Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer.
www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...
January 14, 2026 at 5:05 PM
New CNN polling:
Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer.
www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...
Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer.
www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...
I talked to LA's NPR station about public opinion toward ICE and the politics of immigration under Trump. We are seeing dramatic movement against the government, and Democrats have a real opportunity to push for reforms today. The public is about 70-30 against Trump here www.kcrw.com/shows/press-...
Can Democrats capitalize as ‘Abolish ICE’ regains… | KCRW
Plus, the billionaires working to defeat a wealth tax that’s not even on the ballot yet, how AI can help someone grieving, and what exactly is beef tallow?
www.kcrw.com
January 14, 2026 at 5:05 PM
I talked to LA's NPR station about public opinion toward ICE and the politics of immigration under Trump. We are seeing dramatic movement against the government, and Democrats have a real opportunity to push for reforms today. The public is about 70-30 against Trump here www.kcrw.com/shows/press-...
DEI is tyranny, but a standing army with immunity to throw you in jail or kill you for whatever they want — that's freedom baby!!
January 14, 2026 at 4:27 PM
DEI is tyranny, but a standing army with immunity to throw you in jail or kill you for whatever they want — that's freedom baby!!