G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Pinned
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
this article will publish tomorrow morning at 7:31am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-the-fl...
How the floor could fall out for Trump
43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 4, 2025 at 9:13 PM
this article will publish tomorrow morning at 7:31am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-the-fl...
It looks like the data I've been posting to the Strength In Numbers data page got out of sync over the last week somehow. Many apologies. That's fixed now. gelliottmorris.com/data
December 4, 2025 at 5:02 PM
It looks like the data I've been posting to the Strength In Numbers data page got out of sync over the last week somehow. Many apologies. That's fixed now. gelliottmorris.com/data
good model www.economist.com/interactive/...
December 4, 2025 at 4:27 PM
good model www.economist.com/interactive/...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
New CAP analysis of YMRP survey data: young men, supposedly enamored of hustle-bro culture, are actually extremely supportive of unions and unionizing. Once you realize their actual underlying motivation (a normal desire to prosper!) their views make sense.
www.americanprogress.org/article/why-...
www.americanprogress.org/article/why-...
December 4, 2025 at 3:54 PM
New CAP analysis of YMRP survey data: young men, supposedly enamored of hustle-bro culture, are actually extremely supportive of unions and unionizing. Once you realize their actual underlying motivation (a normal desire to prosper!) their views make sense.
www.americanprogress.org/article/why-...
www.americanprogress.org/article/why-...
trump's approval rating practically every day over the last few months fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
December 4, 2025 at 3:38 PM
trump's approval rating practically every day over the last few months fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
The polls in the TN-07 special were really good -- especially for a House special... And of course, the betting markets take in polls as inputs! fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/...
December 4, 2025 at 3:00 PM
The polls in the TN-07 special were really good -- especially for a House special... And of course, the betting markets take in polls as inputs! fiftyplusone.news/polls/house/...
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
The New York Times just released its latest collection of 2026 congressional polls, and it featured two Verasight polls conducted in partnership with Strength in Numbers, led by @gelliottmorris.com, and The Argument, led by @jerusalem.bsky.social and Lakshya Jain.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Control of Congress 2026: Latest Polls
Track the latest congressional ballot surveys that ask who Americans plan to vote for in the 2026 midterm election.
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The New York Times just released its latest collection of 2026 congressional polls, and it featured two Verasight polls conducted in partnership with Strength in Numbers, led by @gelliottmorris.com, and The Argument, led by @jerusalem.bsky.social and Lakshya Jain.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
if the midterms were held today, I think democrats would win 235+ seats in the house, easily www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
December 3, 2025 at 5:09 PM
if the midterms were held today, I think democrats would win 235+ seats in the house, easily www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
Williams, here complaining that a 200k salary (before kickbacks) is not enough, has not gotten the memo on affordability
Rep. Roger Williams defends members of Congress trading stocks: "I think we gotta be careful that we don't limit Congresspeople to where they can do nothing ... from a financial standpoint, it's not easy being up in Congress."
December 3, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Williams, here complaining that a 200k salary (before kickbacks) is not enough, has not gotten the memo on affordability
Avg swing in specials to Congress is 17 pts left since 2024. But bc they've been so low-turnout, the data b4 last night suggested a 100% turnout (relative to the past midterm) special would have swung closer to 6-7 points. So TN-7 (13 pts) is updating priors about the share of swing that's turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Avg swing in specials to Congress is 17 pts left since 2024. But bc they've been so low-turnout, the data b4 last night suggested a 100% turnout (relative to the past midterm) special would have swung closer to 6-7 points. So TN-7 (13 pts) is updating priors about the share of swing that's turnout
What the special election in Tennessee says about the 2026 midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
What the special election in Tennessee says about the 2026 midterms www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
NYT needle keeps ticking up. I think the model got whiplashed by the disproportional GOP falloff in those early reporting rural precincts
December 3, 2025 at 2:25 AM
NYT needle keeps ticking up. I think the model got whiplashed by the disproportional GOP falloff in those early reporting rural precincts
the avg special swing for special elections in the 2026 cycle is 13 points to the left, according to The Downballot -- so we are seeing an above average shift here in TN-07, even with Trump's late intervention docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 AM
the avg special swing for special elections in the 2026 cycle is 13 points to the left, according to The Downballot -- so we are seeing an above average shift here in TN-07, even with Trump's late intervention docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
If anywhere near this level of differential turnout and crossover voting happens in 2026... GGs GOP
December 3, 2025 at 1:52 AM
If anywhere near this level of differential turnout and crossover voting happens in 2026... GGs GOP
Ds don't seem to be getting what they need out of Nashville. But if the margin lands at R+3, that's a D+19 shift from 2024 -- we're not talking a wave, we're talking tsunami
again @gelliottmorris.com says behn still has a chance but damn 3 points in this district is 🦇💩
December 3, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Ds don't seem to be getting what they need out of Nashville. But if the margin lands at R+3, that's a D+19 shift from 2024 -- we're not talking a wave, we're talking tsunami
Still no results from Nashville and other big vote counties in TN-07. Current patterns suggest a low-single-digits win for the GOP candidate, but that is based on extrapolations of precinct returns in rural areas. Wouldn't be surprised by, say, R+5 after counting. A small D win is still possible
December 3, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Still no results from Nashville and other big vote counties in TN-07. Current patterns suggest a low-single-digits win for the GOP candidate, but that is based on extrapolations of precinct returns in rural areas. Wouldn't be surprised by, say, R+5 after counting. A small D win is still possible
we are all talking about tonight's special election in the Strength In Numbers discord. come hang out sidestack.io/gelliottmorris
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sidestack.io
December 3, 2025 at 1:19 AM
we are all talking about tonight's special election in the Strength In Numbers discord. come hang out sidestack.io/gelliottmorris
this is a good analysis (and they show their work! votehub.com/wp-content/u... )
votehub.com/2025/12/01/t...
votehub.com/2025/12/01/t...
TN-07 Early Vote: Democrats Are Punching Above Their Weight
The Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election is tomorrow night, with Democrat Aftyn Behn facing Republican Matt Van Epps in a district Donald Trump carried by 22 points over Kamala…
votehub.com
December 2, 2025 at 11:59 PM
this is a good analysis (and they show their work! votehub.com/wp-content/u... )
votehub.com/2025/12/01/t...
votehub.com/2025/12/01/t...
silly josh. that part of my brain died a long time ago
the dystopia stuff is just caricature level now … next up “new start up is testing how to use AI to deactivate the part of your brain that experiences emotion and makes you feel alive”
Several new tech start-ups are building replicas of sites so A.I. can learn to use the internet and maybe replace white-collar workers.
December 2, 2025 at 11:26 PM
silly josh. that part of my brain died a long time ago
nyt even needling now for congressional specials. we are in the needle singularity. and I love it
This is the place to follow tonight's election. We'll have our live forecast model turned on.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Tennessee Seventh Congressional District Special Election Results 2025: Behn vs. Van Epps
Get live results and maps from the 2025 Tennessee congressional special election.
www.nytimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 11:25 PM
nyt even needling now for congressional specials. we are in the needle singularity. and I love it
he's also, like, wrong
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/eight-char...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-can-z...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/eight-char...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-can-z...
December 2, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Reposted by G Elliott Morris
DCinbox data in very capable hands:
New at Strength In Numbers:
Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/eight-char...
Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/eight-char...
Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere
All politics is affordability now
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
DCinbox data in very capable hands:
My best guess is that about 70% of Dem gains in specials is coming from turnout, and about 30% from persuasion. This makes sense since specials tend to be lower turnout — the 2025 statewide elex were more like 50-50.
In generic ballot polls we're seeing a D+6 shift — about half the swing in special
In generic ballot polls we're seeing a D+6 shift — about half the swing in special
I've said before that Democrats need to pick this one up to shake the earth, but this result, if predictive, would be profound.
If Dems overperform Harris by this margin (15 points) in every district and state in 2026, they would pick up about 50 House seats and 5 Senate seats.
If Dems overperform Harris by this margin (15 points) in every district and state in 2026, they would pick up about 50 House seats and 5 Senate seats.
December 2, 2025 at 3:57 PM
My best guess is that about 70% of Dem gains in specials is coming from turnout, and about 30% from persuasion. This makes sense since specials tend to be lower turnout — the 2025 statewide elex were more like 50-50.
In generic ballot polls we're seeing a D+6 shift — about half the swing in special
In generic ballot polls we're seeing a D+6 shift — about half the swing in special