G Elliott Morris
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gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers

polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news

formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
very cool that you got to do this for a SoS site. and looks great too
November 10, 2025 at 5:01 PM
counting independents who caucus with democrats, it's eight www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
The 8 Senate Democratic Caucus members who voted to end the shutdown
There are few obvious threads connecting the group who broke the partisan impasse.
www.politico.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM
save your eyes, read elsewhere
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
popularism, except when it's democrats i like taking unpopular positions — then it's all progressives' fault
November 9, 2025 at 1:08 AM
crazy for you to spin this and imply that 'm supporting paul lepage
November 9, 2025 at 1:06 AM
you don't think it hurts golden in a general election to be very publicly tied to a president with a -10 to -20 approval rating **in his district?** come on
November 9, 2025 at 1:05 AM
i think when an incumbent congressperson is very publicly pro-trump and pro-tariffs, including giving lots of interviews on this stuff, when those things are unpopular positions AND high salience in his seat, that matters.
November 9, 2025 at 1:04 AM
it seems very obvious to me here that the story is that golden made political and policy decisions that hurt him, not that progressives drove him out. pro-tariffs is a losing gambit when cost of living anxiety is high. pro-trump is a losing stance when the president's approval is -10 in your seat.
November 9, 2025 at 1:02 AM
'take positions that are popular in your district even if progressives don't like them' is potentially good general election advice, but not if the position you're taking is dramatically unpopular with he median voter in the district
November 9, 2025 at 12:59 AM
not at all what I said. what I said was that one of golden's key positions over the last year is dramatically unpopular with _all_ the voters in ME-2, not just progressives, so blaming his retirement on progressives is dubious at best. I was responding to Matt's claim
November 9, 2025 at 12:58 AM
if the argument from the "dems should be more moderate" crowd boils down to "dems should take positions that are popular with the median voter" (setting aside problems with this), then they should be criticizing golden for not doing that, not trying to blame his retirement on progressive organizing
November 9, 2025 at 12:56 AM
is he a good fit for his district if he can't run for office successfully anymore?

he _was_ previously a good fit for his district, but that doesn't mean he would be forever
November 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM