Jonathan Portes
@jdportes.bsky.social
Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.
Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
Reminder that when the Times had similar worries about Reform, its response was to give Farage this advice on implementation:
"Removing a city’s worth of people would be an extended exercise. Identity cards would be a must if the population was to be sieved into legitimate and illegitimate camps"
"Removing a city’s worth of people would be an extended exercise. Identity cards would be a must if the population was to be sieved into legitimate and illegitimate camps"
December 2, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Reminder that when the Times had similar worries about Reform, its response was to give Farage this advice on implementation:
"Removing a city’s worth of people would be an extended exercise. Identity cards would be a must if the population was to be sieved into legitimate and illegitimate camps"
"Removing a city’s worth of people would be an extended exercise. Identity cards would be a must if the population was to be sieved into legitimate and illegitimate camps"
Utter bullshit/lies from the "Centre for Social Justice" via the Express.
November 30, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Utter bullshit/lies from the "Centre for Social Justice" via the Express.
This is a direct misrepresentation of HdH's research. You claimed it showed there was no substitution. He literally said the opposite.
I have more respect for people who admit their mistakes and correct, rather than doubling down
[This is independent of your point about attitudes.]
I have more respect for people who admit their mistakes and correct, rather than doubling down
[This is independent of your point about attitudes.]
November 27, 2025 at 1:11 PM
This is a direct misrepresentation of HdH's research. You claimed it showed there was no substitution. He literally said the opposite.
I have more respect for people who admit their mistakes and correct, rather than doubling down
[This is independent of your point about attitudes.]
I have more respect for people who admit their mistakes and correct, rather than doubling down
[This is independent of your point about attitudes.]
This is a direct quote from HdH, so I'm not sure what you're on about?
November 27, 2025 at 11:47 AM
This is a direct quote from HdH, so I'm not sure what you're on about?
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
Me on @bloomberg.com discussing the two child limit
November 27, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Me on @bloomberg.com discussing the two child limit
Proud to see the Chancellor directly referencing my research (with @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social & Mary Reader) on the two-child limit.
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 26, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Proud to see the Chancellor directly referencing my research (with @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social & Mary Reader) on the two-child limit.
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Not main point (see my other post) but depressing that Phillips happily regurgitates entirely fictional numbers invented by far-right trolls on X and attributes them to "experts" {and Times is happy to print this slop]
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
November 25, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Not main point (see my other post) but depressing that Phillips happily regurgitates entirely fictional numbers invented by far-right trolls on X and attributes them to "experts" {and Times is happy to print this slop]
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
Trevor Philips in the Times, calling for a Trump/Miller-style of random deportations based on skin colour.
archive.ph/RlXPj
archive.ph/RlXPj
November 24, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Trevor Philips in the Times, calling for a Trump/Miller-style of random deportations based on skin colour.
archive.ph/RlXPj
archive.ph/RlXPj
November 24, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Good to see @igmansfield.bsky.social has now got his numbers right
But for those asking, his "evidence" of the politicisation of UKRI's research is based on an error-ridden report by Eric Kaufman, best known for his deliberate fabrication of evidence in a Policy Exchange report.
But for those asking, his "evidence" of the politicisation of UKRI's research is based on an error-ridden report by Eric Kaufman, best known for his deliberate fabrication of evidence in a Policy Exchange report.
November 13, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Good to see @igmansfield.bsky.social has now got his numbers right
But for those asking, his "evidence" of the politicisation of UKRI's research is based on an error-ridden report by Eric Kaufman, best known for his deliberate fabrication of evidence in a Policy Exchange report.
But for those asking, his "evidence" of the politicisation of UKRI's research is based on an error-ridden report by Eric Kaufman, best known for his deliberate fabrication of evidence in a Policy Exchange report.
Interesting milestone in today's data - more than 20% of those in employment were born abroad, and almost exactly 20% are non-white, both up from under 10% in early 2000s.
[these are overlapping but distinct groups, obviously]
[these are overlapping but distinct groups, obviously]
November 11, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Interesting milestone in today's data - more than 20% of those in employment were born abroad, and almost exactly 20% are non-white, both up from under 10% in early 2000s.
[these are overlapping but distinct groups, obviously]
[these are overlapping but distinct groups, obviously]
The improvement in the employment rate of non-EU migrants to the UK over the past 15 years is remarkable, especially since the pandemic.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
November 11, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The improvement in the employment rate of non-EU migrants to the UK over the past 15 years is remarkable, especially since the pandemic.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
What do you mean "we", white man? 😉
November 1, 2025 at 5:45 PM
What do you mean "we", white man? 😉
worth noting that the Mail article about the specific primary school was actually reasonably balanced, and pointed out that by the time they leave school their English skills are better than the national average
archive.ph/QSGaI
archive.ph/QSGaI
October 31, 2025 at 4:43 PM
worth noting that the Mail article about the specific primary school was actually reasonably balanced, and pointed out that by the time they leave school their English skills are better than the national average
archive.ph/QSGaI
archive.ph/QSGaI
3. There are no straight factual errors in this paragraph, but are you really arguing that it is consistent with the HO data I posted, or that this data wouldn't have been appropriate context?
October 31, 2025 at 8:41 AM
3. There are no straight factual errors in this paragraph, but are you really arguing that it is consistent with the HO data I posted, or that this data wouldn't have been appropriate context?
This is the IPSOS data - bankers are at the bottom! *Way* below care workers. Other evidence supports this. You would certainly not get that from your chart, but it seems highly relevant, doesn't it?
October 31, 2025 at 8:38 AM
This is the IPSOS data - bankers are at the bottom! *Way* below care workers. Other evidence supports this. You would certainly not get that from your chart, but it seems highly relevant, doesn't it?
More generally, there's a wealth of evidence that UK compares relatively well to other OECD countries on labour market outcomes of migrants, and that those outcomes have been improving. As well as integration more broadly. Bizarre not to mention/refer to any of this.
October 31, 2025 at 7:53 AM
More generally, there's a wealth of evidence that UK compares relatively well to other OECD countries on labour market outcomes of migrants, and that those outcomes have been improving. As well as integration more broadly. Bizarre not to mention/refer to any of this.
Meanwhile, compare his bizarre, mostly unlabelled and incomplete chart (left) with *actual data* (again from HO/HMRC).
October 31, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Meanwhile, compare his bizarre, mostly unlabelled and incomplete chart (left) with *actual data* (again from HO/HMRC).
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
October 31, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
Lam took a bunch of X posts from far-right racists and so-called "thinktanks" and turned them into a policy that collapsed as soon as anyone actually read it/understood it.
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Lam took a bunch of X posts from far-right racists and so-called "thinktanks" and turned them into a policy that collapsed as soon as anyone actually read it/understood it.
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Would have been an absolute travesty if she hadn't won!
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
October 29, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
I suspect one byproduct of this "crackdown" will be that it will reveal that illegal working is significantly less of an issue than most people think...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
October 29, 2025 at 8:36 AM
I suspect one byproduct of this "crackdown" will be that it will reveal that illegal working is significantly less of an issue than most people think...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...