Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @ EY EY-Parthenon
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
The fracturing of the world economy
November 28, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The fracturing of the world economy
🇮🇳India’s economy grew at the fastest pace in six quarters, underscoring its resilience even as US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs cloud the outlook.
Gross domestic product rose 8.2%in the three months through September from a year earlier.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Gross domestic product rose 8.2%in the three months through September from a year earlier.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 28, 2025 at 3:31 PM
🇮🇳India’s economy grew at the fastest pace in six quarters, underscoring its resilience even as US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs cloud the outlook.
Gross domestic product rose 8.2%in the three months through September from a year earlier.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Gross domestic product rose 8.2%in the three months through September from a year earlier.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
📈Core capital goods orders & shipments have swung wildly since the start of the year, but momentum in Q3 was solid, driven by communications equipment, machinery & primary metals
✅Shipments: +0.1%
✅Core capital goods ex aircraft: +0.9%
✅Orders: +0.5%
✅Core cap: +0.9%
✅Shipments: +0.1%
✅Core capital goods ex aircraft: +0.9%
✅Orders: +0.5%
✅Core cap: +0.9%
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
📈Core capital goods orders & shipments have swung wildly since the start of the year, but momentum in Q3 was solid, driven by communications equipment, machinery & primary metals
✅Shipments: +0.1%
✅Core capital goods ex aircraft: +0.9%
✅Orders: +0.5%
✅Core cap: +0.9%
✅Shipments: +0.1%
✅Core capital goods ex aircraft: +0.9%
✅Orders: +0.5%
✅Core cap: +0.9%
🤷♂️"Curious" labor market fragility
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 22 *but* continuing claims at 4-year high
📉Claims: 216k (-6k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-1k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.96mn (+7k): High since Nov 2021
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 22 *but* continuing claims at 4-year high
📉Claims: 216k (-6k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-1k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.96mn (+7k): High since Nov 2021
November 26, 2025 at 1:48 PM
🤷♂️"Curious" labor market fragility
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 22 *but* continuing claims at 4-year high
📉Claims: 216k (-6k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-1k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.96mn (+7k): High since Nov 2021
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 22 *but* continuing claims at 4-year high
📉Claims: 216k (-6k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-1k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.96mn (+7k): High since Nov 2021
📉Depressed US consumers! The Conference Board consumer confidence index -6.0pt to 88.7 in Nov: 19% below Dec 2024
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
November 25, 2025 at 3:35 PM
📉Depressed US consumers! The Conference Board consumer confidence index -6.0pt to 88.7 in Nov: 19% below Dec 2024
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
🔻Present situation: -4.3pt to 126.9
🔻Expectations: -8.6pt to 63.2
⚠️Confidence depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects: #inflation, #tariffs & #politics
⚠️The ADP weekly pulse on private sector employment is not yet a mature time series with less than 15 data points
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
November 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
⚠️The ADP weekly pulse on private sector employment is not yet a mature time series with less than 15 data points
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
🔻So while weekly prints should be taken with a grain of salt (-54k in 4 weeks to November 8), the direction of travel is concerning
⛔️Labor demand is softening
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, your #Thanksgiving dinner will cost you 5% less this year; largely because of a 16% drop in turkey prices
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, your #Thanksgiving dinner will cost you 5% less this year; largely because of a 16% drop in turkey prices
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
"While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring deals to draw demand"
www.fb.org/news-release...
⚠️It's subtle but the margin squeeze is real...
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
November 25, 2025 at 2:51 PM
⚠️It's subtle but the margin squeeze is real...
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
📉Wholesalers and retailers are eating part of the cost increases from #tariffs amidst increased consumer price sensitivity
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
November 25, 2025 at 2:15 PM
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
Soft US #Retail sales in September
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
November 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Soft US #Retail sales in September
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
🟠Sales +0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1%
⛔️Core sales -0.1%
⛔️Volumes -0.4%
⛽️Gas 2.0%
⚕️Health 1.1%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.7%
🛋️Furn 0.6%
🛒Groc 0.2%
🏠Build mat 0.2%
🏬Merch 0.1%
🚗Auto -0.3%
🎮Elec -0.5%
💻Online -0.7%
👗Cloth -0.7%
⚽️Sports -2.5%
⚠️Industrial production and manufacturing activity revised much lower.
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
November 24, 2025 at 6:36 PM
⚠️Industrial production and manufacturing activity revised much lower.
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
▶️Cumulative effects of these revisions leave the level of manufacturing output in August 2025 about -1.5% below its level from Feb 2020, whereas manufacturing output was previously +1.5% over that period
Great to be on @bloomberg.com Business Week with Carol Massar and @timsteno.bsky.social to discuss how the economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected “A-pillars”
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
Great to be on Bloomberg News Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec to discuss how the economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow… | Gregory D...
Great to be on Bloomberg News Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec to discuss how the economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnec...
www.linkedin.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Great to be on @bloomberg.com Business Week with Carol Massar and @timsteno.bsky.social to discuss how the economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected “A-pillars”
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
⚖️𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚-𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
November 21, 2025 at 10:39 PM
⚖️𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚-𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
🔎 In the latest "The Inflation Brief," @laurarosner.bsky.social and I welcome Alan Detmeister to cut through the noise & unpack what missing data means for #inflation & the #Fed
Tune in to the @nabe-econ.bsky.social podcast
linktr.ee/nabe_econ
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Inflation Traders to Use Untested Fallbacks for Missing CPI
The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:17 PM
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🚨BLS announces that it won't release the full October CPI data due to the government shutdown
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
November 21, 2025 at 4:51 PM
🚨BLS announces that it won't release the full October CPI data due to the government shutdown
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
📊 It will release the November #CPI on December 18 & include partial CPI data for October using nonsurvey data sources (business data)
🌫️Needless to say the #inflation picture will be extremely murky
US Fragility in the system...
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
November 20, 2025 at 6:59 PM
US Fragility in the system...
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
📈Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended Nov 15 but Continuing claims reached a new 4-year high.
📉Claims: 220k (-8k)
📉4-wk avg: 224k (-3k)
⚠️Continuing claims 1.97mn (+28k): High since Nov '21
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Finance is on Bluesky
November 20, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Finance is on Bluesky
Reposted by Gregory Daco
"The U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify the swastika, an emblem of fascism and white supremacy inextricably linked to the murder of millions of Jews and that more than 400,000 U.S. troops died fighting against in World War II, as a hate symbol..."
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify swastikas, nooses as hate symbols
The military service, which falls under the Department of Homeland Security, has drafted a new policy that classifies such items “potentially divisive.”
www.washingtonpost.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:30 PM
"The U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify the swastika, an emblem of fascism and white supremacy inextricably linked to the murder of millions of Jews and that more than 400,000 U.S. troops died fighting against in World War II, as a hate symbol..."
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Reposted by Gregory Daco
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
Reposted by Gregory Daco
The delay in the data did have one benefit: more survey responses! The collection rate for the establishment survey topped 80% in September, far above the recent average for the first release. Though still below the ~90% that is typical for the second release.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
November 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
The delay in the data did have one benefit: more survey responses! The collection rate for the establishment survey topped 80% in September, far above the recent average for the first release. Though still below the ~90% that is typical for the second release.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
US #Jobsreport September '25: Reassuring but stale upon release
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
November 20, 2025 at 1:47 PM
US #Jobsreport September '25: Reassuring but stale upon release
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
✅Payrolls +119k
✅Private +97k
🟠Gds +10k
✅Services +87k
✅Gov 22k
🟠Diffusion 56%
🚨Revisions Jul/Aug -33k
🟠Hours +0%
🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1pt)
✅Part rate 62.4% (+0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.2% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
⚠️@BLS_gov just released new release dates:
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
November 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
⚠️@BLS_gov just released new release dates:
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October
▶️Employment report for October (only payrolls) & November will be released on December 16 -- after next #Fed/#FOMC meeting (Dec 9-10)
▶️No household survey data for October