Thord Are Iversen
@thelookout.bsky.social
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank.
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Upcoming missile firing activity in the Barents and White Seas:
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
November 29, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Upcoming missile firing activity in the Barents and White Seas:
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
- red closures in effect 3-6 December (03:00-17:00 daily)
- yellow closure in effect 3-10 Dec (06:00-15:00 daily)
1/3
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
November 29, 2025 at 12:14 PM
1/3
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Re: Yasny/Dumbarovsky missile launch failure, I had twigged this NOTAM earlier today, together with a NOTAM over Kura, but wasn't sure if they were actually going to launch or not.
Guess they answered that.
Guess they answered that.
November 28, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Re: Yasny/Dumbarovsky missile launch failure, I had twigged this NOTAM earlier today, together with a NOTAM over Kura, but wasn't sure if they were actually going to launch or not.
Guess they answered that.
Guess they answered that.
Danish personnel of the Air Defense Wing training on NASAMS with Royal Norwegian Air Force instructors at Ørland Air Base.
Photos: Ole Andreas Vekve / Forsvaret
Photos: Ole Andreas Vekve / Forsvaret
November 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Danish personnel of the Air Defense Wing training on NASAMS with Royal Norwegian Air Force instructors at Ørland Air Base.
Photos: Ole Andreas Vekve / Forsvaret
Photos: Ole Andreas Vekve / Forsvaret
@blackbirdgroup.bsky.social and @jjhelin.bsky.social with an article on the US peace initiative well worth reading.
Morals or ideas of justice don't influence the outcome of the war, hard power and the balance in the war will, regardless of how much one despises this.
Link in the next post.
Morals or ideas of justice don't influence the outcome of the war, hard power and the balance in the war will, regardless of how much one despises this.
Link in the next post.
November 24, 2025 at 1:17 PM
@blackbirdgroup.bsky.social and @jjhelin.bsky.social with an article on the US peace initiative well worth reading.
Morals or ideas of justice don't influence the outcome of the war, hard power and the balance in the war will, regardless of how much one despises this.
Link in the next post.
Morals or ideas of justice don't influence the outcome of the war, hard power and the balance in the war will, regardless of how much one despises this.
Link in the next post.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺Northern Fleet activity
Russian Navy Northern Fleet cargo vessel “Yauza” returned to homeport Severomorsk, 24 November 2025, following likely support to SSX-C-9 SKYFALL missile trials, Summer 2025.
⚠️Unit conducted likely cargo offload PVST to Arkhangelsk 19-21 November.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet cargo vessel “Yauza” returned to homeport Severomorsk, 24 November 2025, following likely support to SSX-C-9 SKYFALL missile trials, Summer 2025.
⚠️Unit conducted likely cargo offload PVST to Arkhangelsk 19-21 November.
November 24, 2025 at 9:45 AM
🔺Northern Fleet activity
Russian Navy Northern Fleet cargo vessel “Yauza” returned to homeport Severomorsk, 24 November 2025, following likely support to SSX-C-9 SKYFALL missile trials, Summer 2025.
⚠️Unit conducted likely cargo offload PVST to Arkhangelsk 19-21 November.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet cargo vessel “Yauza” returned to homeport Severomorsk, 24 November 2025, following likely support to SSX-C-9 SKYFALL missile trials, Summer 2025.
⚠️Unit conducted likely cargo offload PVST to Arkhangelsk 19-21 November.
The Norwegian QRA identified a Su-24MR (White 33) and a Su-33 in international airspace north of Finnmark yesterday.
This is normal, routine activity.
Photos: RNoAF F-35 QRA.
This is normal, routine activity.
Photos: RNoAF F-35 QRA.
November 20, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The Norwegian QRA identified a Su-24MR (White 33) and a Su-33 in international airspace north of Finnmark yesterday.
This is normal, routine activity.
Photos: RNoAF F-35 QRA.
This is normal, routine activity.
Photos: RNoAF F-35 QRA.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺OOA activity - Breaking
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.07452 sonar surveillance ship GS-31 “Chusovoy” & Black Sea Fleet Pr.03182 multifunction logistics ship ”Vice Admiral Paromov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 20 November 2025.
1/2⬇️
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.07452 sonar surveillance ship GS-31 “Chusovoy” & Black Sea Fleet Pr.03182 multifunction logistics ship ”Vice Admiral Paromov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 20 November 2025.
1/2⬇️
November 20, 2025 at 9:58 AM
🔺OOA activity - Breaking
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.07452 sonar surveillance ship GS-31 “Chusovoy” & Black Sea Fleet Pr.03182 multifunction logistics ship ”Vice Admiral Paromov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 20 November 2025.
1/2⬇️
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.07452 sonar surveillance ship GS-31 “Chusovoy” & Black Sea Fleet Pr.03182 multifunction logistics ship ”Vice Admiral Paromov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 20 November 2025.
1/2⬇️
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
2-2
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
November 14, 2025 at 7:17 PM
2-2
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
1-2
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
November 14, 2025 at 7:17 PM
1-2
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
A photos from the RV "Akademik IOFFE" expedition, from the northern part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, where the "Freedom and Depth" project is being filmed.
📸M. Tolstoy/V. Marin
We will have to wait for overhead confirmation but that this photo shows Nakhimov returning from the second sea trial period is likely.
Project 11442M Kirov-class heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Admiral Nakhimov".
The ship is likely returning to Severodvinsk from sea trials(№2).
Photo by Trefilova(~Nov. 7)
The ship is likely returning to Severodvinsk from sea trials(№2).
Photo by Trefilova(~Nov. 7)
November 8, 2025 at 2:06 PM
We will have to wait for overhead confirmation but that this photo shows Nakhimov returning from the second sea trial period is likely.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Today in 1962, the United States conducted TIGHTROPE—its last fully-atmospheric nuclear test—as part of Operation Fishbowl. A Nike Hercules SAM was fired 69,000 feet into the sky, where its W31 warhead exploded 2 miles south-southwest of Johnston Island with a reported yield of 10 kilotons.
November 4, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Today in 1962, the United States conducted TIGHTROPE—its last fully-atmospheric nuclear test—as part of Operation Fishbowl. A Nike Hercules SAM was fired 69,000 feet into the sky, where its W31 warhead exploded 2 miles south-southwest of Johnston Island with a reported yield of 10 kilotons.
Interesting:
Today at 1109Z what looks like a mass spoof event of AIS-signal took place in central Baltic Sea.
In an area from approximately Bornholm to mid Gulf of Finland hundreds (thousands?) of new AIS-messages suddenly appeared. A large part of them military ships.
In an area from approximately Bornholm to mid Gulf of Finland hundreds (thousands?) of new AIS-messages suddenly appeared. A large part of them military ships.
November 2, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Interesting:
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Future RF Navy Barskov-class tanker Valentin Rykov departed Lomonosov on 28 October for continuation of sea trials; rendezvoused with Black Sea Fleet sistership Vitse-Admiral Paromov in Gulf of Finland on 29 October
November 2, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Future RF Navy Barskov-class tanker Valentin Rykov departed Lomonosov on 28 October for continuation of sea trials; rendezvoused with Black Sea Fleet sistership Vitse-Admiral Paromov in Gulf of Finland on 29 October
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Frigate «Admiral Grigorovich».
Project 864 Vishnya-Class AGI ship SSV-175 "Viktor Leonov».
Project 03182 replenishment vessel «Vice-Admiral Paromov».
Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette «Grad»(575).
Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette «Amur».
Kronstadt.
Photo by Sokolova (Nov. 2)
Project 864 Vishnya-Class AGI ship SSV-175 "Viktor Leonov».
Project 03182 replenishment vessel «Vice-Admiral Paromov».
Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette «Grad»(575).
Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette «Amur».
Kronstadt.
Photo by Sokolova (Nov. 2)
November 2, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Frigate «Admiral Grigorovich».
Project 864 Vishnya-Class AGI ship SSV-175 "Viktor Leonov».
Project 03182 replenishment vessel «Vice-Admiral Paromov».
Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette «Grad»(575).
Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette «Amur».
Kronstadt.
Photo by Sokolova (Nov. 2)
Project 864 Vishnya-Class AGI ship SSV-175 "Viktor Leonov».
Project 03182 replenishment vessel «Vice-Admiral Paromov».
Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette «Grad»(575).
Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette «Amur».
Kronstadt.
Photo by Sokolova (Nov. 2)
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Launch of submarine Khabarovsk In Severodvinsk
Sentinel 2 low resolution satelitte imagery, 2025-11-02 09:11:51Z
Sentinel 2 low resolution satelitte imagery, 2025-11-02 09:11:51Z
November 2, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Launch of submarine Khabarovsk In Severodvinsk
Sentinel 2 low resolution satelitte imagery, 2025-11-02 09:11:51Z
Sentinel 2 low resolution satelitte imagery, 2025-11-02 09:11:51Z
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
This photos, showing a torpedo launched from an XLUUV (it’s not fully submerged, that’s normal for this stage of trials), puts the Indonesians ahead of all Western countries in this regard! Why are European navies sleeping?!?!
More info:
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
More info:
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
November 2, 2025 at 9:55 AM
This photos, showing a torpedo launched from an XLUUV (it’s not fully submerged, that’s normal for this stage of trials), puts the Indonesians ahead of all Western countries in this regard! Why are European navies sleeping?!?!
More info:
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
More info:
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
New Minuteman III test coming up.
I say this a lot about Russian tests but now it must be said about American ones too:
Test schedules are planned long in advance and such tests are perfectly normal, unlikely to be related to recent events.
I say this a lot about Russian tests but now it must be said about American ones too:
Test schedules are planned long in advance and such tests are perfectly normal, unlikely to be related to recent events.
1/x
Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to the (unarmed) test #launch of a US #Minuteman-III #ICBM from Vandenberg targetting the Ronald Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein, Nov 5-6
Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to the (unarmed) test #launch of a US #Minuteman-III #ICBM from Vandenberg targetting the Ronald Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein, Nov 5-6
October 31, 2025 at 12:52 PM
New Minuteman III test coming up.
I say this a lot about Russian tests but now it must be said about American ones too:
Test schedules are planned long in advance and such tests are perfectly normal, unlikely to be related to recent events.
I say this a lot about Russian tests but now it must be said about American ones too:
Test schedules are planned long in advance and such tests are perfectly normal, unlikely to be related to recent events.
This is interesting:
🔺Baltic Naval reinforcement activity
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
October 30, 2025 at 3:28 PM
This is interesting:
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺Baltic Naval reinforcement activity
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
October 30, 2025 at 3:15 PM
🔺Baltic Naval reinforcement activity
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
The Russian Navy likely transferred a Pr.22800 Karakurt class missile corvette to the Baltic Sea, mid-October 2025.
Unit may be Black Sea Fleet MRK-646 “Amur”
Superstructure de-rig/re-rig, for inland waterway transit, visible.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺OOA activty - Heads up!
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Alternatively, Yelnya could deploy more widely as part of a Baltic Fleet regional engagement TG.
@thelookout.bsky.social @yoruk.bsky.social @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Alternatively, Yelnya could deploy more widely as part of a Baltic Fleet regional engagement TG.
@thelookout.bsky.social @yoruk.bsky.social @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social
October 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🔺OOA activty - Heads up!
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Alternatively, Yelnya could deploy more widely as part of a Baltic Fleet regional engagement TG.
@thelookout.bsky.social @yoruk.bsky.social @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Alternatively, Yelnya could deploy more widely as part of a Baltic Fleet regional engagement TG.
@thelookout.bsky.social @yoruk.bsky.social @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social
Poseidon test related:
The special purpose submarine Belgorod, Poseidon trials support ship Akademik Aleksandrov and the auxiliary Zvezdochka was highly likely missing from their usual piers in Severodvinsk by the 23rd and high likely still missing on the 28th.
The special purpose submarine Belgorod, Poseidon trials support ship Akademik Aleksandrov and the auxiliary Zvezdochka was highly likely missing from their usual piers in Severodvinsk by the 23rd and high likely still missing on the 28th.
October 30, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Poseidon test related:
The special purpose submarine Belgorod, Poseidon trials support ship Akademik Aleksandrov and the auxiliary Zvezdochka was highly likely missing from their usual piers in Severodvinsk by the 23rd and high likely still missing on the 28th.
The special purpose submarine Belgorod, Poseidon trials support ship Akademik Aleksandrov and the auxiliary Zvezdochka was highly likely missing from their usual piers in Severodvinsk by the 23rd and high likely still missing on the 28th.
Did someone forget to tell Trump that the US Navy launched 4 Trident II's just a little over a month ago?
I dislike overanalyzing Trump's statements and posts but the one in question is open for interpretation (fortunately).
www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
I dislike overanalyzing Trump's statements and posts but the one in question is open for interpretation (fortunately).
www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
www.navy.mil
October 30, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Did someone forget to tell Trump that the US Navy launched 4 Trident II's just a little over a month ago?
I dislike overanalyzing Trump's statements and posts but the one in question is open for interpretation (fortunately).
www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
I dislike overanalyzing Trump's statements and posts but the one in question is open for interpretation (fortunately).
www.navy.mil/Press-Office...
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺OOA activty - Heads up!
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Unit will likely deploy to the Mediterranean Sea as relief for Northern Fleet tanker “Kama” & may get underway next 1-14 days.
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Unit will likely deploy to the Mediterranean Sea as relief for Northern Fleet tanker “Kama” & may get underway next 1-14 days.
October 29, 2025 at 5:14 PM
🔺OOA activty - Heads up!
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Unit will likely deploy to the Mediterranean Sea as relief for Northern Fleet tanker “Kama” & may get underway next 1-14 days.
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet tanker “Yelnya” is a strong candidate to conduct an autumn OOA deployment.
⚠️Unit will likely deploy to the Mediterranean Sea as relief for Northern Fleet tanker “Kama” & may get underway next 1-14 days.
1/5
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
October 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
1/5
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.