Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

120K followers 4.3K following 9.5K posts

Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author.

https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/
http://brightlinewatch.org .. more

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Brendan Nyhan is an American political scientist and professor at Dartmouth College. He is also a liberal to moderate political blogger, author, and political columnist. He was born in Mountain View, California and now lives in Hanover, New Hampshire. .. more

Political science 39%

Sociology 22%

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 19d

My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)

The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."

Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?

www.nytimes.com

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13h

absolutely, anyone is eligible!

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13h

good points here on why this might have happened

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13h

fair!!! they talk about that and are precise in their definitions (which you may not share!). I think we do agree that something is different - they are talking about a decline from the post-civil rights era

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

This is lovely. All can be true
-There is a real need for internal change in higher ed to counter tendencies toward groupthink & monoculture
-The Fox/MAGA caricature is absurd and unrecognizable from the inside
-The authoritarian assault would make things vastly worse by destroying academic freedom

James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 5d

Column worth reading, by former two-term GOP governor who discovers that Harvard is not the hellscape of intolerance and group-think that the MAGA and its media are constantly telling him about.

(Think of parallels in so many other realms.)

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | I was a red state governor. What I saw at Harvard surprised me.

The spirit of association remains alive in unexpected places.

www.washingtonpost.com

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 1d

WOW. @haleaziz.bsky.social with a new scoop: ICE now gets a running list of every person who is going to be taking a domestic flight inside the United States from the TSA and runs it through their database looking for targets. This explains the Babson College student's arrest.

Immigration Agents Are Using Air Passenger Data for Deportation Effort

www.nytimes.com

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

See also their @newyorker

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

See also the @newyorker.com podcast with Levitsky, @lucanway.bsky.social, and @dziblatt.bsky.social: "How Bad Is It?" www.newyorker.com/podcast/poli...

How Bad Is It?: Three Political Scientists Say America Is No Longer a Democracy

They do argue, however, that there are ways out of the United States’ authoritarian moment.

www.newyorker.com

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Mark D. White, Nils Gustafsson , and 6 more Anna O. Law, Mark D. White, Nils Gustafsson, Laurent Pech, Jens Rydgren, Damian Trilling, Kate Starbird, Mark Rice, David Darmofal

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

The leading scholars of democratic decline say the US "has descended into competitive authoritarianism" - we "ceased to be a full democracy in the way that Canada, Germany, or even Argentina are democracies" - but caution that it can be contested and reversed
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Reposted by Mor Naaman

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

What authoritarianism looks like - directing government prosecutors to find any basis to bring charges against political targets, then seek to shake them down and cripple them

Charles Ornstein @charlesornstein.bsky.social · 1d

NEW! The Shakedown: Trump’s DOJ Pressured Lawyers to “Find” Evidence That UCLA Had Illegally Tolerated Antisemitism, with @chronicle.com

Trump’s DOJ Pressured Lawyers to “Find” Evidence that UCLA Had Illegally Tolerated Antisemitism

An investigation by ProPublica and The Chronicle of Higher Education reveals how the U.S. government ignored due process to gin up its attack on the University of California.

www.propublica.org

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

The @metaculus.bsky.social / Bright Line Watch U.S. Democracy Threat Index now has a *$10,000* prize pool for the most accurate forecasts
-$7,500 for time-averaged scores starting today
-$2,500 bonus prize for predictions during snapshots

Make your predictions now!
www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

Trump Wants to Dominate Venezuela, Not Liberate It www.persuasion.community/p/trump-want...

Trump Wants to Dominate Venezuela, Not Liberate It

Maduro destroyed my country. What comes next could be worse.

www.persuasion.community

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

arxiv.org/pdf/2512.07121

"for both Republicans and Democrats, partisan segregation is higher offline than online"

"in both online and offline environments, isolation is higher
for Democrats"

"older Republicans show higher offline isolation than online"

Reposted by Andrew L. Whitehead

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

And yet they didn't cave bsky.app/profile/john...

John Bisognano @johnbisognano.com · 2d

This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him.

I don’t know how else to say it…

Reposted by David R. Miller, Andrew L. Whitehead, David Darmofal

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

These Indiana Republicans are civic heroes. Shocking and inspiring to see after the collapse of resistance to illiberalism among so many of their counterparts over the last decade.

Paul Waldman @paulwaldman.bsky.social · 1d

The next turn in American politics could be a widespread reaction against Trumpism as a political style, with its vulgarity, hatefulness, and constant threat of violence. If that happens the Republicans who remade themselves in Trump's image will be in trouble.

www.cnn.com/2025/12/11/p...

Several Republican senators noted on Thursday that constituents opposed a mid-decade redrawing of US House maps and that they questioned the wisdom or the precedent of joining the national redistricting battle. But a number of Republicans, including people who voted for the president three elections in a row, also gave deeply personal reasons over the last several weeks.

Sen. Mike Bohacek has a daughter with Down syndrome. He was offended by Trump’s use of a slur for people with disabilities, in a Truth Social post deriding Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and said that Trump’s “choices of words have consequences.”

Sen. Greg Walker, who represents former Vice President Mike Pence’s hometown of Columbus, said he was among the senators targeted by swatting attempts in the weeks leading up to Thursday’s vote. While law enforcement has not publicly linked the swatting or other threats to a political motive, Walker said he felt voting yes would reward wrongdoing and set a dangerous precedent.

Sen. Greg Goode, whose town hall in Terre Haute this fall revealed massive public opposition to mid-decade redistricting, said the new maps would splinter communities with similar interests. He also criticized “over-the-top pressure from inside the Statehouse and outside,” as well as “threats of violence, acts of violence.”

“Whether we realize it or not, whether we accept it or not, the forces that define this vitriolic political affairs in places outside of Indiana have been gradually and now very blatantly infiltrated the political affairs in Indiana,” he said in a speech before the vote.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Metaculus @metaculus.bsky.social · 1d

Index and full prize details: metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
Start forecasting by January 1.
4/4

U.S. Democracy Threat Index

This index now features a $10,000 prize pool. See the Prize Structure section below for details.

metaculus.com

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Metaculus @metaculus.bsky.social · 1d

Each question asks whether a specific, observable event will occur: Will executive officials defy court orders? Will journalists be charged under the Espionage Act? Will 10+ presidential affiliates receive pardons? Will US authorities transfer citizens to prisons abroad?
3/4

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Metaculus @metaculus.bsky.social · 1d

We built the index with @brendannyhan.bsky.social & Bright Line Watch. 39 forecast questions track scenarios like court defiance, contempt referrals, DOJ follow-through, and transfers to foreign prisons. Together they aggregate into a single metric of US institutional resilience.
2/4

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Metaculus @metaculus.bsky.social · 1d

In April, a federal judge found probable cause the Trump admin willfully defied a court order on deportation flights. The contempt probe intensified this week.
We've added a $10,000 prize pool to our US Democracy Threat Index. Scenarios like this are exactly what it tracks.
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