Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author.
https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/
http://brightlinewatch.org
https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/
http://brightlinewatch.org
Pinned
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
This Veterans Day I want to acknowledge the Black veterans of WWII who fought fascism and nazism and came home to fight for civil rights and democracy here. New research shows Black veterans were critical in securing the voting rights currently under attack.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Homefront: Black Servicemembers and Black Voters in the Civil Rights Era
The role of Black World War II veterans in the Civil Rights Movement has been well documented, but the effect of Black military service on Black voting patterns remains unclear. Combining detailed in...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
This Veterans Day I want to acknowledge the Black veterans of WWII who fought fascism and nazism and came home to fight for civil rights and democracy here. New research shows Black veterans were critical in securing the voting rights currently under attack.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
costly signaling
“.. If you add more and more product to your face and are surrounded by people who do the same, ‘you lose sight of anatomic normalcy.’”
@axios.com #Panem
www.axios.com/local/washin...
@axios.com #Panem
www.axios.com/local/washin...
November 11, 2025 at 1:33 PM
costly signaling
"an unusual mass deportation to a country with a poor human rights record that the United States had bombed earlier this year in an effort to set back its nuclear program"
but we're sending them back dissidents "who repeatedly told American authorities that Iran would persecute them"
but we're sending them back dissidents "who repeatedly told American authorities that Iran would persecute them"
“For decades, Iranians fleeing persecution have found protection in the United States. But this fall, the Trump administration deported a planeload of people to Iran after making a deal with Tehran.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/w...
‘It Feels Like I’m in a Nightmare’: Inside the First Deportation Flight to Iran
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:01 PM
"an unusual mass deportation to a country with a poor human rights record that the United States had bombed earlier this year in an effort to set back its nuclear program"
but we're sending them back dissidents "who repeatedly told American authorities that Iran would persecute them"
but we're sending them back dissidents "who repeatedly told American authorities that Iran would persecute them"
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Ominous
NEW: President Trump's pardon of his alleged 2020 co-conspirators was less about shielding them from past crimes, his adversaries say, than about signaling to others that he has their back if he needs them again in 2026 or 2028.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 11, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Ominous
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Things that would get any other president impeached
NEW: President Trump's pardon of his alleged 2020 co-conspirators was less about shielding them from past crimes, his adversaries say, than about signaling to others that he has their back if he needs them again in 2026 or 2028.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 11, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Things that would get any other president impeached
many of us have elderly relatives we worry about being taken advantage of by people who don't have their best interests at heart.
but those relatives don't have the nuclear codes.
but those relatives don't have the nuclear codes.
November 11, 2025 at 1:29 AM
many of us have elderly relatives we worry about being taken advantage of by people who don't have their best interests at heart.
but those relatives don't have the nuclear codes.
but those relatives don't have the nuclear codes.
A systematic attack on the rule of law. Watergate-level high crimes and misdemeanors happening every day.
Breaking MSNBC:
The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida called a division-wide meeting this afternoon, following the resignations of two prosecutors who were asked to take part in a vast "conspiracy" investigation into former intel and law enforcement officials.
The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida called a division-wide meeting this afternoon, following the resignations of two prosecutors who were asked to take part in a vast "conspiracy" investigation into former intel and law enforcement officials.
U.S. Attorney investigating alleged grand ‘conspiracy’ calls unit-wide meeting after two prosecutors resign
Career prosecutors on “pins and needles” after flurry of subpoenas approved.
www.msnbc.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:56 PM
A systematic attack on the rule of law. Watergate-level high crimes and misdemeanors happening every day.
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
They got the HR guy to sign off on the subpoenas because the line prosecutors refused.
November 10, 2025 at 10:49 PM
They got the HR guy to sign off on the subpoenas because the line prosecutors refused.
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Guys he actually did it ....
November 10, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Guys he actually did it ....
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
“.. demonstrates how Mr. Trump’s handling of pardons and commutations has allowed some convicts to return to criminality.”
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/n...
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/n...
November 10, 2025 at 8:17 PM
“.. demonstrates how Mr. Trump’s handling of pardons and commutations has allowed some convicts to return to criminality.”
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/n...
@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/n...
First Trump is trying to expropriate $230M from DOJ for himself, now this
This allows Trump (via DOJ) to use taxpayer money to bribe eight GOP Senators. It's that simple, there's no other way to describe it.
And where's the compensation for people injured by the Trump admin's unlawful conduct through DHS & DOGE?
Take a bow, @schumer.senate.gov, you did this.
And where's the compensation for people injured by the Trump admin's unlawful conduct through DHS & DOGE?
Take a bow, @schumer.senate.gov, you did this.
November 10, 2025 at 9:48 PM
First Trump is trying to expropriate $230M from DOJ for himself, now this
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
This is such a bizarre talking point; I've thankfully never had to use most of the types of insurance that I have for me and my family
This is a good excuse to share my WSJ letter to the editor explaining that "not filing a claim doesn’t mean you didn’t need insurance" www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
This is a good excuse to share my WSJ letter to the editor explaining that "not filing a claim doesn’t mean you didn’t need insurance" www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
November 10, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This is such a bizarre talking point; I've thankfully never had to use most of the types of insurance that I have for me and my family
This is a good excuse to share my WSJ letter to the editor explaining that "not filing a claim doesn’t mean you didn’t need insurance" www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
This is a good excuse to share my WSJ letter to the editor explaining that "not filing a claim doesn’t mean you didn’t need insurance" www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
This is depraved.
“While Border Patrol photographers snapped photos, one agent shouted, “Everyone say, ‘Little Village!’”
“While Border Patrol photographers snapped photos, one agent shouted, “Everyone say, ‘Little Village!’”
Border Patrol Agents Pose At The Bean For Apparent Photo Op
The photo op came after agents tear-gassed a Little Village street and were spotted in the area numerous times. At the Bean, one agent shouted, "Everyone say, 'Little Village!'"
blockclubchicago.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
This is depraved.
“While Border Patrol photographers snapped photos, one agent shouted, “Everyone say, ‘Little Village!’”
“While Border Patrol photographers snapped photos, one agent shouted, “Everyone say, ‘Little Village!’”
Read one (1) history book and tell me this is ok
New:
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
![STEWART RHODES (FOUNDER, OATH KEEPERS): And one other thing I want to say is that President Trump, as commander in chief, always has absolute authority to call all of us up as the militia because every one of us — in federal statues defining the militia, it's every able-bodied male from age 17-45. And for us veterans, it goes up to age 64 because of our prior training and experience.
Right now, under federal statutes, President Trump can call us up as the militia if he sees it necessary, especially for three purposes: to repel invasions, to suppress insurrections, and to execute the laws of the union. And right now, we see all three of those in play.
...
And the militia is all of us. So the National Guard is part of the militia, which is why it's completely lawful for him to use the National Guard as he has, and he should do more of that, I think, across the country.
...
He could just say given the circumstances of an invasion, insurrection, and resistance against federal law being being enforced, I'm calling up the militia, ordering all the men to come together [in] every county, put the veterans in charge of training and organizing all the other men and just have them stand too and await his orders. He can do that and I think he should do that. And so that's what I'll be advocating for from him. So from the bottom, from down the rank and file, we can let President Trump know that we're ready to serve, encourage him to do that, call us up as a militia, order us all to come together in our counties under his command, which gives you complete legal sanction to do what you're doing.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:af7tqcetuyt352aolf3znlxe/bafkreialm4skuozqobejpd6vx4m6kuwsgtidxmmxvj3ftcff6otiuyohiy@jpeg)
November 10, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Read one (1) history book and tell me this is ok
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
The President pardoned members of his private militia after they failed to overturn an election; they, in turn, pledge their support to him and urge him to use them to police civil society.
New:
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
On The Gateway Pundit's podcast yesterday, Stewart Rhodes announced he's relaunching the Oath Keepers
He also urged Trump to “call us up as a militia" & "order us all to come together in our counties under his command."
www.mediamatters.org/oath-keepers...
November 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The President pardoned members of his private militia after they failed to overturn an election; they, in turn, pledge their support to him and urge him to use them to police civil society.
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
*Women receive substantially lower "potential" ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
Forthcoming in the AER: "“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap" by Alan Benson, Danielle Li, and Kelly Shue. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
“Potential” and the Gender Promotion Gap
(Forthcoming Article) - We show that subjective assessments of employee “potential” contribute to gender gaps
in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a
large retail ...
www.aeaweb.org
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
*Women receive substantially lower "potential" ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
*Differences in potential ratings account for half of the gender promotion gap
*Women’s lower potential ratings do not reflect future performance: women subsequently outperform male colleagues
No movement in prediction markets for House control over news of Dems moving to end shutdown kalshi.com/markets/cont... polymarket.com/event/which-...
kalshi.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:49 PM
No movement in prediction markets for House control over news of Dems moving to end shutdown kalshi.com/markets/cont... polymarket.com/event/which-...
New AI timeline forecasts from The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/introducin... Lots of uncertainty but more expert/superforecaster convergence than I expected
November 10, 2025 at 2:18 PM
New AI timeline forecasts from The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/introducin... Lots of uncertainty but more expert/superforecaster convergence than I expected
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
Computational Turing Test Reveals Systematic Differences Between Human and AI Language
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the social sciences to simulate human behavior, based on the assumption that they can generate realistic, human-like text. Yet this assumption rem...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
LLMs are now widely used in social science as stand-ins for humans—assuming they can produce realistic, human-like text
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
But... can they? We don’t actually know.
In our new study, we develop a Computational Turing Test.
And our findings are striking:
LLMs may be far less human-like than we think.🧵
The real Slow House = the leadership suite with Patel and Bongino
"arrived wearing a trucker hat and a green hooded sweatshirt"
Fussed over flights, screwed over our ally, took a picture with the king, left
"arrived wearing a trucker hat and a green hooded sweatshirt"
Fussed over flights, screwed over our ally, took a picture with the king, left
November 10, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The real Slow House = the leadership suite with Patel and Bongino
"arrived wearing a trucker hat and a green hooded sweatshirt"
Fussed over flights, screwed over our ally, took a picture with the king, left
"arrived wearing a trucker hat and a green hooded sweatshirt"
Fussed over flights, screwed over our ally, took a picture with the king, left
Not now, more severe flu variant www.bbc.com/news/article...
November 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Not now, more severe flu variant www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan
Unfortunately still true bsky.app/profile/adam...
American politics makes a lot more sense when you realize that the GOP is afraid of pissing off the GOP base, and the Dems are afraid of pissing off the GOP base, but neither party is afraid of pissing off the Dem base.
November 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Unfortunately still true bsky.app/profile/adam...