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Thomas J Hayes

Thomas J Hayes

@thomasjhayes.bsky.social

240 followers 370 following 6 posts

Associate Professor of Political Science at UConn. Director of the EcoHouse Learning Community.

Political science 47%

Economics 11%

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Posts Replies Media Videos

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 3d

If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:

America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.

What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵

Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Thomas J. Hayes, David Darmofal

YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 8d

Jan 7 poll of 2,223 U.S. adults (+/-2.4 points)
% who would support | oppose the U.S. using military force to take control of Greenland
U.S. adults 8% | 73%
Democrats 4% | 87%
Independents 6% | 73%
Republicans 15% | 60%
today.yougov.com/topics/trave...

YouGov survey results by political party for the question, Would you support or oppose the U.S. using military force to take control of Greenland?

Reposted by Christian E. Weller, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Mark Rice , and 1 more Christian E. Weller, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Mark Rice, Thomas J. Hayes

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14d

Every one of these deals exceeds the severity of the Clinton Foundation and Hunter Biden controversies by orders of magnitude. And there are already dozens, probably hundreds.

Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 14d

Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches

An illustrated guide of the first year of profiteering.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Trump’s Tangled Web of Deal-Making, Policy and Riches (Gift Article)

The president, his family and some of their closest associates have engaged in a sprawling campaign of deals that stretches across industries and the globe.

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Colin F. Camerer, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan , and 21 more Colin F. Camerer, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Steve Peers, Alistair Munro, Nathan Nunn, Christian E. Weller, Guy Grossman, Rebecca Tushnet, Aaron Sojourner, Nazita Lajevardi, Scott A. Imberman, Michael D. McDonald, Brian Keegan, Jens Rydgren, Aurélien Mondon, Josh Pasek, Alessandro Rigolon, Thomas J. Hayes, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Simon Lester, Nathan P. Kalmoe, David Darmofal, Roman Senninger

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 21d

DOGE was A LOT less likely to cancel contracts from companies that donated money to Republicans than companies that donated to Democrats.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · Nov 22

Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me online, Monday 11/24 at 3:30pm ET, to talk about where we are in the US struggle for democracy. ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...

The Breakdown with Erica Chenoweth and Steve Levitsky – Ash Center

Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...

ash.harvard.edu

Reposted by Erica Chenoweth, Thomas J. Hayes

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 18

As Trump again ramps up attacks on judges as biased, consider: his own appointees rule against his admin 49% of the time. Republican appointees 65%. Reporters should ask: If the judiciary is biased, why do the judges he picked keep ruling against him?

Data visualization titled “Even Trump’s Own Judicial Appointees Rule Against His Administration Nearly Half the Time.” Top section shows 81 rulings against (49.1%) vs 84 for (50.9%) among Trump appointees. Middle section compares rulings by appointing party: Democratic appointees ruled against Trump 752 times vs 169 for; Republican appointees 232 against vs 126 for. Bottom section shows historical comparison - how other presidents’ appointees ruled on Trump cases: Biden appointees 252 against/46 for, Obama 368/91, Bush 62/23, Clinton 125/22, Reagan 88/19. Source: Federal Court Dockets from Courtlistener.com. Data from Jan 21, 2025 through Nov 11, 2025, lower federal courts only, Supreme Court not included.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 14

Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵

Racial Resentment Among White Americans by Birth Year and Demographics

This figure presents the same four-panel layout (education, gender, geography, religion) but for White Americans from birth years 1940 to 2000.

Education panel: A pronounced divide shows non-college Whites with substantially higher resentment across all cohorts, increasing sharply for older birth years. College-educated Whites rise more modestly but remain distinctly lower, especially among younger cohorts.

Gender panel: Male and female trendlines rise together, with women slightly higher in mid-century cohorts. Younger cohorts of both genders start lower and climb with age.

Geography panel: Regional lines separate clearly: the South is highest in resentment, followed by the Midwest. The West and Northeast show lower levels, with the Northeast consistently at the bottom. All regions slope upward toward older cohorts.

Religion panel: Protestants show the highest resentment, peaking among mid-century cohorts. Catholics sit in the middle. Non-affiliated Whites show the lowest resentment, especially among younger respondents, with a small rise among mid-century generations.

The figure notes CES 2024 data with GAM-smoothed trendlines.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Jan W. Mueller, Alan Richardson , and 4 more Anna O. Law, Jan W. Mueller, Alan Richardson, Nazita Lajevardi, Christina Ho, Thomas J. Hayes, Nicole Guenther Discenza

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 11

Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.

Table showing the five richest men in the U.S from Bloombergs billionaire list
., all in technology. Elon Musk tops the list with a net worth of $461B and a year-to-date gain of $28.2B. Larry Ellison is second at $300B with a $107B YTD gain. Jeff Bezos has $268B (+$29.5B YTD), Larry Page $250B (+$81.9B YTD), and Sergey Brin $234B (+$75.5B YTD). Each row also lists last-day change, country (all United States), and industry (all Technology).

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Json Momoa @jotatx.bsky.social · Oct 9

@chrischirp.bsky.social is doing a fantastic work here
www.trumpactiontracker.info

Reposted by Joanne Spetz, Efrén O. Pérez, Aaron Sojourner , and 2 more Joanne Spetz, Efrén O. Pérez, Aaron Sojourner, C. Kirabo Jackson, Thomas J. Hayes

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Aug 8

Look at how Trump's tariffs are affecting retail prices.

Reposted by Catherine C. Eckel, Thomas J. Hayes

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · Jul 14

The balance of public opinion is against abortion being legal in only one state, Arkansas.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

In 34 states and D.C., more people say abortion generally should be legal than say it generally should be illegal. For example, in the District of Columbia, 81% of adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Support for legal abortion also stands at about 75% or higher in several New England states, including Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Connecticut.

Meanwhile, people in Arkansas are more likely to say abortion should generally be illegal (57%) rather than legal (41%). Arkansas is the only state where the balance of public opinion is against abortion by a statistically significant margin.

In 15 states, the shares saying abortion should be legal and saying it should be illegal are not significantly different once the margins of sampling error in each state are taken into account.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Claire Adida @claireadida.bsky.social · Jul 4

Trump bill is the second most unpopular in recent history. GOP don’t care.

via @gelliottmorris.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Bethany Albertson @albertsonb2.bsky.social · Jul 2

Sharing this one because it should be a bigger story-

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/u...

Pardoned Jan. 6 Rioter Who Threatened Police Joins Justice Dept.

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Christian E. Weller, Michael Jones‐Correa, Banu Özkazanç‐Pan , and 2 more Christian E. Weller, Michael Jones‐Correa, Banu Özkazanç‐Pan, Thomas J. Hayes, Suzanne Conklin Akbari

Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · Jun 30

Ok, so Republicans just introduced a 900 page bill none of them have read. But my team is going through it line by line and on this 🧵you can see the hidden provisions we found. Will update all day.

1/ NEW Medicaid cuts, so now 17 million - instead of 16M - lose health care.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30

To top it all off, as I wrote in @medpagetoday.bsky.social, the bill goes against the federalism principles that Republicans have historically espoused, literally penalizing states for offering more generous health coverage with their own state funds. www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/seco...

Opinion | Will States' Rights Go the Way of Medicaid Funding?

Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' bolsters federal power

www.medpagetoday.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30

Now let’s talk behavioral health. The opioid epidemic ravaged Appalachia (where I live, and which largely voted for Trump), and Medicaid is critical lifeline for people requiring treatment for mental health and substance use disorders, as I write on in @statnews.com www.statnews.com/2025/06/12/m...

Medicaid cuts would devastate mental health, substance use treatment services in red states

Though behavioral health conditions do not discriminate between Democrats and Republicans, the Medicaid cuts may be particularly damaging for residents of red states.

www.statnews.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30

As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...

Medicaid cuts will harm rural Republican communities most

Trump’s budget will actively harm the health and incomes of rural communities and Republican voters, well beyond those who themselves are enrolled in Medicaid.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · May 11

One of the tough things about covering Trump’s 2nd term is that he is breaking so many laws & norms that when you cover them each on their own, you come off as an anti-Trump Dem pundit w “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” But when you list it all out things indeed look pretty alarming

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · May 9

This is America.

Maydee, still confronting the officers, says
"Where is the warrant?" Officer Lugo, according to his nameplate, says "Ma'am we are trying our best but they are federal."
Morales again asks for the warrant.
"They're federal."
"They still need a warrant."
Another officer, frustrated, says "They don't need a warrant." Finally, one of them tells the truth. Due process is not a matter they're concerned with.

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach, Thomas J. Hayes, Daphne Halikiopoulou

Daniel Ziblatt @dziblatt.bsky.social · May 8

Appeasement, as Churchill warned, is like feeding a crocodile and hoping to be the last one eaten.

Levitsky, Way, and me today in New York Times

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/o...

Opinion | No One Has Ever Defeated Autocracy From the Sidelines

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Jonathan Cohn @jonathancohn.bsky.social · May 8

The US government is pumping right-wing conspiracy theories into other countries. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Embattled Voice of America to use newsfeed from hard-right network

One America News will now provide news and video to government-funded organization

www.theguardian.com

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · May 7

There’s so much happening right now, I thought I’d put together a running thread on the dismantling of #climate and research and knowledge infrastructure in the United States 🧵

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · May 1

they are literal segregationists apnews.com/article/scho...

The Justice Department ended a decades-old school desegregation order. Others are expected to fall

The Justice Department is lifting a school desegregation order in Louisiana dating to the Civil Rights Movement, calling its continued existence a “historical wrong” and suggesting that others across ...

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · Apr 29

“86% oppose the United States trying to take control of Canada. Eighty percent oppose Trump serving a third term, 76% oppose trying to take control of Greenland and 66% oppose sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons.” abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...

Most Americans oppose Trump 3rd term, taking control of Greenland and Canada: POLL

The poll finds that Americans widely oppose the U.S. trying to take control of Canada and Greenland, sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons and a third Trump term.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · Apr 28

Welp, the federal minimum wage is now officially a poverty wage (as in, a full-time worker earning the federal minimum wage gets paid less than the poverty line for a single person). www.epi.org/blog/the-fed...

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Apr 25

Trump's ActBlue attacks serve two goals: Cripple Dems' small-dollar machine (where GOP mega-donors can't compete) while forcing Democrats deeper into the arms of their own billionaires and mega-donors. Not just about winning—it's about kneecapping Dem candidates who refuse to bow to elite interests.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · Apr 21

Something has happened in the last three months that has led basically every economic forecaster to predict that inflation will be substantially higher than they previously thought.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

Missing The Point @missingthept.bsky.social · Apr 19

The Accidental Harvard Letter
The Accidental Deportation
The Accidental Tariff on an Uninhabited Island
The Accidental Disclosure of War Plans to a Journalist
The Accidental Firings of Nuclear Safety Workers

Reposted by James Q. Wilson, Thomas J. Hayes

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Apr 18

New from me: Trump's job approval rating on the economy is now at an all-time low, even worse than during COVID-19. Opinion in his handling of inflation is at -18 on average! He has now lost the GOP's single best political asset of the last decade.

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/chart-of-t...

Trump is losing voters on the economy

Inflation got Donald Trump elected in 2024. Now, his ratings on economic issues are at their lowest point ever, even worse than during COVID-19

www.gelliottmorris.com