Scott Gehlbach
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sgehlbach.bsky.social
Scott Gehlbach
@sgehlbach.bsky.social

University of Chicago, Political Science and Harris School. Director, PhD Program in Political Economy. Autocracy/Eurasia/HPE. Blogging at scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev. Cards fan but o/w Chicago patriot. 🇺🇦

Political science 43%
Economics 15%

There are smart autocrats and dumb autocrats.

Putin is a smart autocrat who has protected the independence of the central bank.

Erdogan is a dumb autocrat who has destroyed the independence of the central bank.

Both smart and dumb autocrats can survive. But it is easier for smart autocrats.

I read version control as the most important lesson in this (admittedly long, but that’s Substack) piece.

Reposted by Paul Nightingale

There are going to be so many papers retracted because the authors didn’t read this piece by @causalinf.bsky.social before they started working with Claude Code.
How Claude Code Changes How I Work (part 5): On The Challenges of Adopting Software That Was Not Designed For Us
The Marginal User of Claude Code is not the Average User of Claude Code and All the Risks That That Entails
causalinf.substack.com

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

[1/3] I'm happy to share the news that my paper "Propaganda to a Cynical Audience" is out at Political Science Research and Methods.

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

Many thanks for the kind words, Scott! I’ll immediately update the book’s companion site, where I post lecture notes and more: sites.google.com/view/tore-el...

Second time teaching my undergrad core class with @toreellingsen.bsky.social’s excellent text. A few thoughts. scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev/teaching-gam...
Teaching Game Theory and Social Theory
In which I discuss the role of Tore Ellingsen’s outstanding text in my undergraduate course in Social Science Inquiry.
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev
Not a humble brag (ok, maybe a little), but if somebody wants the chapter I wrote from this very expensive Oxford Handbook, please send me an email. This is not the best figure, but I promise the others are worth it! Transitional Justice and Elite Polarization url: academic.oup.com/edited-volum...
Transitional Justice and Elite Polarization
AbstractDoes the origin of polarization regarding transitional justice (TJ) in Poland lie with the elites or within society? We examine the causes of polar
academic.oup.com

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

Five years since the January 6th insurrection and a reminder that in the moment many Republicans and Trump voters were appalled, but many also were not.

Thanks, Noah! I’ve posted your comments to my blog, just in case someone stumbles across my previous post.
Serendipity and the Grid, cont.
responds on to my : Makes complete sense. I might add that even when the general population can afford private cars, some “legacy” street layouts a...
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev

poll.blue/post

The latter, btw
Meanwhile, all the economists at #ASSA2026 are getting exactly what they need, no more, at this area establishment. (h/t @spantoja.bsky.social)

Reposted by Noah L. Nathan

On days like today, it’s nice to have a preoccupation that isn’t tied too directly to current events. Here, a few thoughts on urban design and social interaction, inspired by @nlnathan.bsky.social’s really innovative work on gridded streets and political mobilization.
Serendipitous Encounters On and Off the Grid
Chicago is a city on a grid. Noah Nathan’s innovative “Do Grids Demobilize?” () suggests this should be bad for social interaction, and thus collective actio...
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev

Vladimir Putin must be wondering this morning, and not for the first time, why he was born into a country with such an incompetent military.

Called. (Left VM b/c weekend.)

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

US citizens — instead of just posting on Bluesky call your Congress Reps!

3 skeets do nothing, 3 calls might actually flood the zone and influence our 50+ and older legislators to wake up…

5calls.org/issue/trump-...
Stop the Military Escalation with Venezuela (UPDATED 1/3) ⭑ 5 Calls
Updates January 3, 2025: The Trump administration ordered military strikes on Venezuela. There is no congressional approval for this military action. …
5calls.org

Just connecting the dots, if the Trump admin cuts off the supply of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, as I suspect they will, then this is about regime change in Cuba as well, and Cuba is a great place for casinos, and wait, who has interests in the casino business…?

More urban design today in my new minimalist blog—here, a reflection on social interaction in neighborhoods with more or less gridded streets.

Reposted by Sascha O. Becker

These are great panels! Please join us if you can.

The autocracy panel features papers by

1. Liu, @luozhaotian.bsky.social, Qiu, & @shuyiyu.bsky.social

2. @jackpaine.bsky.social

3. @fantinity.bsky.social, Ritter, & Shadmehr

4. Zhaotian (again), @spantoja.bsky.social, & me
Three SIOE @sioecon.bsky.social sessions on Sat 3rd Jan 2026 at @assameeting.bsky.social Philadelphia

0800-1000: Education, Immigration, and Knowledge Diffusion

1015-1215: Econometric Issues in Comparative Economics

1430-1630: Models of Autocracy

See you there!
Three SIOE @sioecon.bsky.social sessions on Sat 3rd Jan 2026 at @assameeting.bsky.social Philadelphia

0800-1000: Education, Immigration, and Knowledge Diffusion

1015-1215: Econometric Issues in Comparative Economics

1430-1630: Models of Autocracy

See you there!

Reposted by Noah L. Nathan

Taking a cue from @mattglassman312.bsky.social, I have created a text-first blog for occasional musings of the sort that fit better into 300 words than 300 characters. Here is my first post—on urbanity, and where we see it. scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev/urbanity-her...
Urbanity, Here and There
I am reading Vishaan Chakrabarti’s (visually, substantively) beautiful . Setting the stage, Chakrabarti defines an urbane community not as "elitist or metrop...
scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev

Get your sugar kicks…

💯 I learned history as a kid by playing Avalon Hill board games. And my son has learned history by playing @gmtgames.bsky.social board games (with me). Through him, I have discovered Civ VI and the like. Great games, board and video alike, are great teachers.
What if the best way to learn about history is by playing with it?
Video games are changing the way people understand the past
economist.com

This👇. We give to the Kyiv School of Economics every year. $5000 provides a scholarship with full tuition and housing—an investment in one student’s future, an investment in the future of Ukraine. Please give what you can. 🇺🇦🎓
At this holiday season, we should remember people in Ukraine and their fight for freedom. I am proud to support @razomforukraine.org and the Kyiv School of Economics, which is helping to build a brighter future in Ukraine.
foundation.kse.ua/en/
Home - KSE Charitable Foundation
foundation.kse.ua

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

At this holiday season, we should remember people in Ukraine and their fight for freedom. I am proud to support @razomforukraine.org and the Kyiv School of Economics, which is helping to build a brighter future in Ukraine.
foundation.kse.ua/en/
Home - KSE Charitable Foundation
foundation.kse.ua

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

630,000 boys are born each year in Russia.
420,000 men are recruited and sent to the meat grinder.

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

Hard agree with Kotkin here www.foreignaffairs.com/china/weakne... and if you want more detail on the Russia case, See my book, Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin's Russia www.amazon.com/Weak-Strongm...
The Weakness of the Strongmen
Not long ago in the sweep of history, countries that had once been buried behind the Iron Curtain, and even some Soviet republics, were transformed into members of the solidly democratic club. Some of...
www.foreignaffairs.com

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach

One of Trump’s most consistent traits—right up there with racism and greed—is his admiration for dictators. He “fell in love” with Kim, defends MBS for murder, and praises Orbán and Putin at every turn. Yet when he claims to oppose Maduro on humanitarian grounds, the press politely plays along.

Alternatively, you could argue on the merits