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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de
8K followers 500 following 410 posts
Russia & Economics All views private German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) Picture: Tamek Kowalski
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Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
Mediazona does, I don't... 200.zona.media
Список погибших на войне с Украиной на 2025 год
Пофамильный список погибших на войне с Украиной с разбивкой по годам и регионам. База данных погибших с поиском по фамилиям
200.zona.media
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
This theory is supported by changes in payouts over time. Payouts increased significantly in 2024, after Wagner and Prigozhin were history and the mercenaries came under the control of the MoD. This resulted in more families becoming eligible for payouts.

More: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...
How many Russian soldiers died - according to regional budgets?
This post presents a new method for estimating the number of Russian fatalities based on budget spending in certain Russian regions. The results appear to match the data of other OSINT projects.
open.substack.com
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
This suggests that the budget data actually yields a subset of the Mediazona list (MoD contract = entitled to payout), but has more comprehensive coverage of that subset, resulting in similar totals. Also, budget data may have a smaller time lag (payouts began in mid-March 2022).
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
While the chart appears to show the same underlying cases, one could argue that it is comparing "apples" to "oranges and apples": The Mediazona figure includes lots of mercenaries and prisoners, whose families are most likely not (or not always) entitled to payouts.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
The budget data estimate is based on payouts to families of killed soldiers: Regional spending divided by the regional payout sum. Unfortunately, there is only data for 12 regions. I assume that only families of soldiers/volunteers with an MoD contract are entitled to a payout.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 9h
How many Russian soldiers have died in the war against Ukraine? I made my own estimate based on regional budget data. The results are very close to those of Mediazona's "200" project, even though they use an entirely different data source.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 8d
Almost certainly all go to Ukraine. Some regions explicitly mention it in the budget listings (bonus for soldiers who fight in the SMO). In some regions, the bonuses are differentiated - risky jobs (reserve battalion=frontline immediately) pays more. Domestic jobs don't pay a high bonus.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 14d
Glitch in der ARD-Wettervorhersage?
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 15d
Also, constant lending is not a collapse in lending. It just means that loans are repaid and new loans are taken out at the same rate...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 15d
Changes in total lending don't tell us a lot about changes in lending to the military industry. Most likely, lending to non-military sectors is collapsing, while lending to the military industry continues to grow. Even sectoral lending (Kennedy's paper) cannot give the full picture...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
Tax increases, plus borrowing...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
Which data are you using? Overall, lending has grown this year. www.cbr.ru/eng/press/ev...
Growth in corporate lending accelerates further in August | Bank of Russia
www.cbr.ru
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
Other than that, most spending (in % of 2026 GDP) is very close to the 2025 budget law... You can check out the composition of the 2026 budget here (the English translations for 2026 will follow later). budget.jakluge.de?view=0&id=11...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
The cost of servicing Russian public debt is expected to increase to 1.7% of GDP next year.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
Plans for total spending are very similar to this year.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 16d
I've updated my Russian budget browser with the latest data for 2026. In comparison to previous years, Russian military spending is supposed to fall by almost 1% of GDP next year... (unclear what the underlying assumptions are regarding the war against Ukraine)
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 21d
The Russian Finance Ministry now expects a deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2025. Original plan was 0.5%, revised in June to 1.7%. The extra deficit will be financed with additional borrowing ~1% of GDP, leaving the National Wealth Fund intact (~2% of GDP liquid assets).
www.interfax.ru/business/104...
Минфин планирует увеличить объем внутренних заимствований в 2025 году на 2,2 трлн рублей
Минфин РФ планирует в текущем году увеличить объем государственных заимствований на внутреннем рынке, выступающих источником финансирования дефицита бюджета.Объем заимствований РФ в 2025 году будет ув...
www.interfax.ru
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 21d
Russian budget figures for 2026:

Revenue: 40.283 trillion rubles
(of that: 8.9 trillion from oil+gas)

Expenditure: 44.869 trillion rubles

Planned deficit: 4.6 trillion rubles (~2% of GDP)

Source:
government.ru/news/56304/
Заседание Правительства
В повестке: о проектах федерального бюджета и государственных внебюджетных фондов, о прогнозе социально-экономического развития и проекте основных направлений единой государственной денежно-кредитной ...
government.ru
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 21d
As rumored in recent weeks, Russia is increasing its VAT rate from 20% to 22% in 2026. This increase is explicitly linked to rising military expenditure by MinFin. It will generate ~0.5% of GDP in additional revenue (Russian mil. spending is ~8.5% so far in 2025).

www.kommersant.ru/doc/8060398?...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 22d
Unfortunately, this is probably just a federal data issue. Regional budget data says that recruitment is getting more expensive, but the numbers are stable (Q3 looks stable as well). I wrote a bit about the data issue in my last blog entry. janiskluge.substack.com/p/russia-sti...
Russia still recruits 1,000 soldiers per day, but costs continue to rise
Recent increases in sign-on bonuses in several regions suggest mounting pressure to boost the number of recruits.
janiskluge.substack.com
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · Sep 7
Yes, but nominal GDP is also higher in Q4. So 8.5% probably.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · Sep 7
I updated the data for Russia's GDP in H1/2025 (99.7 trillion). Russian military spending was firmly above 8% of GDP in the first half of 2025 (my estimates don't include a couple of smaller components and are slightly below what SIPRI methodology would suggest). budget.jakluge.de?view=0&id=52...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · Sep 5
Good questions... In theory, there are millions of men who could sign up for money. But I also wonder: If you didn't want to sign up for 2 million, do you really want to for 3 or 4 million? Some might just not want to fight or die in Ukraine. So it might be exponential.
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · Sep 5
Genau das was die europäischen Regierungschefs inkl. Merz die ganze Zeit machen...
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jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · Sep 5
The regions have to deliver their quote of men, otherwise the governors will be punished. The governors put pressure downwards in the hierarchy, on the mayors of cities etc. If the money was embezzled, they wouldn't be able to deliver...
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