Peter du Toit
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peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.

https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
Pinned
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:

"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell

#ClimateCrisis

Reposted by Du Toit

November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):

Reposted by Du Toit

We are working on a new climate-resilience framework and want you to help us shape it. 💬🫵

Citizens, businesses and stakeholders can all take part in the public consultation, where you can voice your opinion on the future of 🇪🇺 policy!

link.europa.eu/39hf7p

#EUHaveYourSay

Instrument Readings:

1.51°C (ERA5) - 12-month running mean above preindustrial

425.76 ppm global CO2 concentrations year-to-date

Heating rate ~0.3°C/decade

Response:

Current government emission reduction targets (NDCs): 75% certain 2°C will be crossed.

We are on a highway to hell.
November 30: Awful situation across parts of South & Southeast Asia as two cyclones spawned extreme flooding and landslides that have left more than 1,000 people dead.

CY Ditwah
- Sri Lanka: >334 dead

CY Senyar
- Thailand: >162 dead; >$1bn economic loss
- Indonesia: >505 dead
- Malaysia: >3 dead

You may also find this helpful from the WMO (March 2025)

“The best estimates of current global warming from these three approaches are between 1.34 °C and 1.41 °C, 𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳, 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘥 1.5 °𝘊 𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘶𝘵.” [italics mine]

Reposted by Du Toit

2nd or 3rd warmest November is in the books. Very warm anomalies almost all across the Northern Hemisphere. Negative Antarctic Oscillation with lots of extra warmth across Antarctica. Now lets see what December has in store.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...

www.karstenhaustein.com/climate

Reposted by Du Toit

November 30: Awful situation across parts of South & Southeast Asia as two cyclones spawned extreme flooding and landslides that have left more than 1,000 people dead.

CY Ditwah
- Sri Lanka: >334 dead

CY Senyar
- Thailand: >162 dead; >$1bn economic loss
- Indonesia: >505 dead
- Malaysia: >3 dead
Realtors know that, in many parts of the country, if you educate people about climate risk, the housing market will collapse.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Record warm Spring nights along coastal QLD this week. 2nd straight month of records for some sites!

Low Isles 28.1c (27.8c 2018) POR 58yrs

Townsville 27.9c (27.9c 1988) POR 85yrs!

Bowen 27.6c (27.2c 2022) Combined POR 38yrs

Reposted by Du Toit

On 23 Nov, rainfall on Sumatra’s W.coast reached 160mm per day - then, on 24 Nov, rose to 226mm per day. These numbers far exceed Indonesia’s average monthly rainfall of ~150mm.

“If rainfall exceeds 100mm in a day, it is already considered extreme- let alone reaching 200mm” says Erma

#Indonesia 🇮🇩

From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis where 3.3 — 3.6 BILLION people live.

All these climate refugee stories are taking place with the background global heating at ~1.5°C

With current government emission reduction commitments there is 75% chance heating will pass 2°C
‘We had to swim to safety. I didn’t think we would make it out alive’: the people fleeing climate breakdown – in pictures
Photographers Mathias Braschler and Monika Fischer capture the families, farmers and fishers who have been forced to leave their homes by extreme weather – and the landscapes they left behind
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Cyrus Samimi

Don't look away from this!
The sheer scale of the flooding is staggering.
This is all occurring at ~1.5ºC
What happens at 2ºC?
We are 92% certain to reach this level of heating
We are completely unprepared!

#ClimateCrisis
Southeast Asia floods death toll climbs, rescue teams push on | REUTERS
Floods claimed at least 180 lives across Southeast Asia as cyclone-driven storms battered Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, forcing thousands into shelters and prompting urgent rescue and relief operations. #News #Reuters #Newsfeed #thailand #indonesia #floods Read the story here: https://reut.rs
youtu.be

IPCC: In the near-term (2022-2040) risks are highest for people, animals & ecosystems that are:

1. In places close to thermal limits
2. In places close to seasonal rivers & ice
3. Along coastlines

BILLIONS of people are in harms way!
Astonishingly, sea ice still hasn't started to reform over the Barents Sea area yet of the #Arctic. This includes record low conditions around Svalbard as well. It's been a very bad few months across the region.

Check out more graphics here: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Reposted by Du Toit

Nice article about the various online and offline visualization and analysis tools that are available for exploring EarthCARE data - thanks to Eleni Marinou (@elmarinou.bsky.social) who coordinates the development of these tools! earth.esa.int/eogateway/ne...
Exploring EarthCARE Data and Analysis Tools - Earth Online
To fully exploit the wealth of EarthCARE data, ESA and its partners have developed a comprehensive suite of data access, visualisation, analysis, and simulation tools. These tools not only support sci...
earth.esa.int

Are these people insane?

New coal power in 2025?

🤦🏻‍♂️

Reposted by Du Toit

🔴 NEW - Labour Group Slams Lord Glasman Over Climate Denial Lecture

The Labour peer called for new coal power in the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s annual lecture.

📝 @adambarnett.bsky.social
Labour Group Slams Lord Glasman Over Climate Denial Lecture
An influential Labour peer has been criticised for being the star speaker at the UK’s main climate science denial group, which says carbon emissions are a “benefit to the planet”. Lord Maurice Glasman...
www.desmog.com

Shell executives ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, March 25th 2025.

Meanwhile…

Reposted by Du Toit

Updated animation of #CopernicusAtmosphere daily mean PM2.5 surface concentration forecasts showing development of Indo-Gangetic Plain #AirPollution between 1-27 November. More info/#OpenData access: ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... #airquality @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int

Tune into the National Emergency Briefing on climate and nature in the UK

This is the language we desperately need as we sail through ~1.5ºC and march on to 2ºC
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
www.youtube.com
Hard hitting words from Chris Packham to politicians and leaders at the National Emergency Briefing on climate and nature:

"You MUST listen to the science. We didn't just elect you. We've given you our trust. You are about to hear from leading scientists. I beseach you to hear their truth"

And yet, the UAE, as part of the Arab Group negotiating bloc and with other major fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia, opposed language in the COP30 final agreement that called for a formal roadmap or explicit "phase out" of fossil fuels.

It's freaking insane.
While Trump guts climate science, in the UAE, the National Centre of Meteorology and Khalifa University are working on climate impacts... and they found that the "greatest con job" is also "making stormy days in the UAE more common and more intense"...

www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/202...
Stormy days are becoming more common in the UAE because of climate change, study finds | The National
Researchers warned that the trend is set to continue
www.thenationalnews.com

Reposted by Du Toit

While Trump guts climate science, in the UAE, the National Centre of Meteorology and Khalifa University are working on climate impacts... and they found that the "greatest con job" is also "making stormy days in the UAE more common and more intense"...

www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/202...
Stormy days are becoming more common in the UAE because of climate change, study finds | The National
Researchers warned that the trend is set to continue
www.thenationalnews.com

Reposted by Du Toit

More than 700,000 homes across the ten English councils now governed by Reform UK are projected to face medium or higher flood risk by the middle of the century...

That is roughly one in five households in the party’s local strongholds.
Drowning in denial: one in five homes in Reform UK heartlands faces flooding in 25 years
Even as the party rolls back climate action, Reform-controlled councils sit on some of England’s worst rising flood risks
yorkshirebylines.co.uk

Reposted by Du Toit

EU 2035 latest: The oil lobby’s push for an EU biofuels loophole could create an unsustainable demand for animal fats and used cooking oil – the equivalent of 120 pigs per car.

A 🧵 on what this loophole would mean for Europe’s limited supply of advanced biofuels 👇

I cannot emphasise how important it is to take some time out of your day to absorb presentation

This is a *direct* result of our refusal to stop burning coal, oil and methane gas

What is presented here are consequences at ~1.5°C

The current NDC trajectory is ~2.5°C

We are on a highway to hell
Want a state-of-the-art explainer on the big changes occurring in the Antarctic?

Check out this recent briefing, delivered to COP30 @iccinet.bsky.social

Very much designed for the non-expert, so don't be afraid to dip in!

www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw... 1/2
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com
Want a state-of-the-art explainer on the big changes occurring in the Antarctic?

Check out this recent briefing, delivered to COP30 @iccinet.bsky.social

Very much designed for the non-expert, so don't be afraid to dip in!

www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw... 1/2
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Violent conflict over #water hit a record last year
2024 saw a record number of violent incidents over water around the world, far surpassing the 355 in 2023, continuing a steeply rising trend. Violence has more than quadrupled in the last five years.

www.latimes.com/environment/...
Violent conflict over water hit a record last year
Violence over water is on the rise worldwide. Researchers counted a record 420 incidents of conflict in 2024, many in Ukraine and the Middle East.
www.latimes.com

Knysna on the South African south coast is at high risk of water shortages as it primarily relies on river extraction to supply the town.

The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.

Here are all the red flags:

peterdutoit.com/knys...