Peter du Toit
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peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.

https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
Pinned
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:

"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell

#ClimateCrisis

ICYMI: State of the Climate in the Arab Region 2024

“Intense heatwaves that are pushing society to the limits. Human health, ecosystems and economies can’t cope with extended spells of more than 50°C – it is simply too hot to handle”

Global background heating ~1.5°C

wmo.int/news/media-c...
Collapse of key Atlantic current could bring extreme drought to Europe for centuries, study finds. @swinda.bsky.social
That's an under-appreciated impact of #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...

Reposted by Du Toit

Fossil-fuel billionaires bought up millions of shares after meeting with top Trump officials

#climatecrisis
Story by @ninalakhani.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Fossil-fuel billionaires bought up millions of shares after meeting with top Trump officials
Co-founders’ acquisition of Venture Global shares before key permit granted draws scrutiny as pair deny wrongdoing
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Du Toit

I've never been more excited about the future of the social web than I am today.

If you're developing on AT Proto or ActivityPub I want to reassure that your work will make a difference. Big wheels are turning.

Reposted by Du Toit

Europe just had their warmest November on record - barely beating out 2013. Most of the excess warmth was in the eastern portion of the continent.

I just analysed the latest Sentinel-2 satellite images for the storage dams feeding Knysna South Africa.

This is not looking good - at all. Is this the first South African town to hit Day Zero?
Tracking Knysna’s Water Crisis – Satellite Images Show The Drama Unfolding
To better understand Knysna’s current water situation, I’ve been monitoring the Akkerkloof and Glebe dams using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Because these are off-channel dams, rainfall does not fill them directly. They can only refill when pumps successfully move water from the Knysna and Gouna rivers after rain improves river flow. The sequence of images from […]
peterdutoit.com

Remember the small South African town on the countries south coast that was facing a water crisis?

Well things have gotten real. The municipality has declared a local state of emergency and the scramble is now on to stretch water supplies for as long as possible.
Knysna’s Water Outlook: What the Next 60 Days Could Look Like
Knysna has entered one of the most challenging water periods in its recent history. A Special Council Meeting on 2 December confirmed what many residents have been feeling on the ground: the town’s water system is under severe strain, and the next 4–8 weeks will be critical. In this post I explain why the water system […]
peterdutoit.com

Reposted by Du Toit

The new American dream: Buy a house, make it a home, save for the future, lose it all to a predictable climate disaster you weren't warned about because damage from Big Oil's pollution is now hurting real estate agent commissions!
Zillow deletes climate risk data from listings after complaints it harms sales
Site deletes feature after real estate agents and some homeowners say scores appear arbitrary and hurt sales
www.theguardian.com

“Families have lost homes and incomes, and thousands are sheltering in evacuation centers. Health risks from waterborne diseases and sanitation challenges are rising, while flooded roads and damaged bridges are cutting off access to essential services.”

www.climatecentre.org/16365/millio...
Millions affected by severe flooding across Asia, with reports of hundreds of deaths – Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
The Climate Centre supports the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and its partners in reducing the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on vulnerable people.
www.climatecentre.org

Do not look away from this tragedy!

Here is *exactly* why this is happening as highlighted by UNEP (2025)

"To date, no [governments] have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies"

Fossil fuels keep being burnt, emissions and temps keep going up

Reposted by Du Toit

November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):

Reposted by Du Toit

We are working on a new climate-resilience framework and want you to help us shape it. 💬🫵

Citizens, businesses and stakeholders can all take part in the public consultation, where you can voice your opinion on the future of 🇪🇺 policy!

link.europa.eu/39hf7p

#EUHaveYourSay

Instrument Readings:

1.51°C (ERA5) - 12-month running mean above preindustrial

425.76 ppm global CO2 concentrations year-to-date

Heating rate ~0.3°C/decade

Response:

Current government emission reduction targets (NDCs): 75% certain 2°C will be crossed.

We are on a highway to hell.
November 30: Awful situation across parts of South & Southeast Asia as two cyclones spawned extreme flooding and landslides that have left more than 1,000 people dead.

CY Ditwah
- Sri Lanka: >334 dead

CY Senyar
- Thailand: >162 dead; >$1bn economic loss
- Indonesia: >505 dead
- Malaysia: >3 dead

You may also find this helpful from the WMO (March 2025)

“The best estimates of current global warming from these three approaches are between 1.34 °C and 1.41 °C, 𝘩𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳, 𝘨𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘥 1.5 °𝘊 𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘶𝘵.” [italics mine]

Reposted by Du Toit

2nd or 3rd warmest November is in the books. Very warm anomalies almost all across the Northern Hemisphere. Negative Antarctic Oscillation with lots of extra warmth across Antarctica. Now lets see what December has in store.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pre...

www.karstenhaustein.com/climate

Reposted by Du Toit

November 30: Awful situation across parts of South & Southeast Asia as two cyclones spawned extreme flooding and landslides that have left more than 1,000 people dead.

CY Ditwah
- Sri Lanka: >334 dead

CY Senyar
- Thailand: >162 dead; >$1bn economic loss
- Indonesia: >505 dead
- Malaysia: >3 dead
Realtors know that, in many parts of the country, if you educate people about climate risk, the housing market will collapse.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Record warm Spring nights along coastal QLD this week. 2nd straight month of records for some sites!

Low Isles 28.1c (27.8c 2018) POR 58yrs

Townsville 27.9c (27.9c 1988) POR 85yrs!

Bowen 27.6c (27.2c 2022) Combined POR 38yrs

Reposted by Du Toit

On 23 Nov, rainfall on Sumatra’s W.coast reached 160mm per day - then, on 24 Nov, rose to 226mm per day. These numbers far exceed Indonesia’s average monthly rainfall of ~150mm.

“If rainfall exceeds 100mm in a day, it is already considered extreme- let alone reaching 200mm” says Erma

#Indonesia 🇮🇩

From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis where 3.3 — 3.6 BILLION people live.

All these climate refugee stories are taking place with the background global heating at ~1.5°C

With current government emission reduction commitments there is 75% chance heating will pass 2°C
‘We had to swim to safety. I didn’t think we would make it out alive’: the people fleeing climate breakdown – in pictures
Photographers Mathias Braschler and Monika Fischer capture the families, farmers and fishers who have been forced to leave their homes by extreme weather – and the landscapes they left behind
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Cyrus Samimi

Don't look away from this!
The sheer scale of the flooding is staggering.
This is all occurring at ~1.5ºC
What happens at 2ºC?
We are 92% certain to reach this level of heating
We are completely unprepared!

#ClimateCrisis
Southeast Asia floods death toll climbs, rescue teams push on | REUTERS
Floods claimed at least 180 lives across Southeast Asia as cyclone-driven storms battered Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, forcing thousands into shelters and prompting urgent rescue and relief operations. #News #Reuters #Newsfeed #thailand #indonesia #floods Read the story here: https://reut.rs
youtu.be

IPCC: In the near-term (2022-2040) risks are highest for people, animals & ecosystems that are:

1. In places close to thermal limits
2. In places close to seasonal rivers & ice
3. Along coastlines

BILLIONS of people are in harms way!
Astonishingly, sea ice still hasn't started to reform over the Barents Sea area yet of the #Arctic. This includes record low conditions around Svalbard as well. It's been a very bad few months across the region.

Check out more graphics here: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Reposted by Du Toit

Nice article about the various online and offline visualization and analysis tools that are available for exploring EarthCARE data - thanks to Eleni Marinou (@elmarinou.bsky.social) who coordinates the development of these tools! earth.esa.int/eogateway/ne...
Exploring EarthCARE Data and Analysis Tools - Earth Online
To fully exploit the wealth of EarthCARE data, ESA and its partners have developed a comprehensive suite of data access, visualisation, analysis, and simulation tools. These tools not only support sci...
earth.esa.int

Are these people insane?

New coal power in 2025?

🤦🏻‍♂️

Reposted by Du Toit

🔴 NEW - Labour Group Slams Lord Glasman Over Climate Denial Lecture

The Labour peer called for new coal power in the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s annual lecture.

📝 @adambarnett.bsky.social
Labour Group Slams Lord Glasman Over Climate Denial Lecture
An influential Labour peer has been criticised for being the star speaker at the UK’s main climate science denial group, which says carbon emissions are a “benefit to the planet”. Lord Maurice Glasman...
www.desmog.com

Shell executives ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, March 25th 2025.

Meanwhile…