Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
Knysna on the South African south coast is at high risk of water shortages as it primarily relies on river extraction to supply the town.
The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.
Here are all the red flags:
peterdutoit.com/knys...
The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.
Here are all the red flags:
peterdutoit.com/knys...
November 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Knysna on the South African south coast is at high risk of water shortages as it primarily relies on river extraction to supply the town.
The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.
Here are all the red flags:
peterdutoit.com/knys...
The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.
Here are all the red flags:
peterdutoit.com/knys...
Reporting from Reuters.
November 26, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Reporting from Reuters.
ICYMI the WMO seasonal (Dec-Feb) climate update:
🌡️ "The forecast indicates a strong global signal for enhanced probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures."
🌧️ "Overall, the DJF 2025/26 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern"
Source: wmo.int/media/update...
🌡️ "The forecast indicates a strong global signal for enhanced probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures."
🌧️ "Overall, the DJF 2025/26 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern"
Source: wmo.int/media/update...
November 25, 2025 at 10:40 AM
ICYMI the WMO seasonal (Dec-Feb) climate update:
🌡️ "The forecast indicates a strong global signal for enhanced probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures."
🌧️ "Overall, the DJF 2025/26 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern"
Source: wmo.int/media/update...
🌡️ "The forecast indicates a strong global signal for enhanced probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures."
🌧️ "Overall, the DJF 2025/26 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern"
Source: wmo.int/media/update...
The current trajectory:
2024 emissions increased by 2.3% from 2023.
2025 emissions are projected to increase by 1.1% from 2024
2024 emissions increased by 2.3% from 2023.
2025 emissions are projected to increase by 1.1% from 2024
November 25, 2025 at 7:22 AM
The current trajectory:
2024 emissions increased by 2.3% from 2023.
2025 emissions are projected to increase by 1.1% from 2024
2024 emissions increased by 2.3% from 2023.
2025 emissions are projected to increase by 1.1% from 2024
A small town on South Africa’s south coast is 23 days from Day Zero.
Today they had to switch off the river extraction pumps due to extreme low water flow.
Knysna has been plagued by municipal mismanagement and infrastructure issues and the drought has amplified all this.
Population: 98,000
Today they had to switch off the river extraction pumps due to extreme low water flow.
Knysna has been plagued by municipal mismanagement and infrastructure issues and the drought has amplified all this.
Population: 98,000
November 23, 2025 at 5:44 PM
A small town on South Africa’s south coast is 23 days from Day Zero.
Today they had to switch off the river extraction pumps due to extreme low water flow.
Knysna has been plagued by municipal mismanagement and infrastructure issues and the drought has amplified all this.
Population: 98,000
Today they had to switch off the river extraction pumps due to extreme low water flow.
Knysna has been plagued by municipal mismanagement and infrastructure issues and the drought has amplified all this.
Population: 98,000
November 22, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Special Envoy Juan Carlos from Panama speaks for millions of us as COP30 ends
“A climate text that cannot mention fossil fuels is a climate text that refuses to speak the truth…”
Part 1:
“A climate text that cannot mention fossil fuels is a climate text that refuses to speak the truth…”
Part 1:
November 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Special Envoy Juan Carlos from Panama speaks for millions of us as COP30 ends
“A climate text that cannot mention fossil fuels is a climate text that refuses to speak the truth…”
Part 1:
“A climate text that cannot mention fossil fuels is a climate text that refuses to speak the truth…”
Part 1:
Our infrastructure is not designed for the age of climate chaos caused by the continued burning of coal, oil & methane gas.
Meanwhile at COP30 they are arguing about a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels!
We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Meanwhile at COP30 they are arguing about a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels!
We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
November 21, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Our infrastructure is not designed for the age of climate chaos caused by the continued burning of coal, oil & methane gas.
Meanwhile at COP30 they are arguing about a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels!
We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Meanwhile at COP30 they are arguing about a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels!
We are on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Likelihood of this as a result of what is required?
Again from the UNEP (2025):
Again from the UNEP (2025):
November 21, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Likelihood of this as a result of what is required?
Again from the UNEP (2025):
Again from the UNEP (2025):
NEW from IRI:
"Patterns confirm that La Niña conditions are firmly established."
"The probability of La Niña continuing is 67% for Nov–Jan 2025 and 53% for Dec–Feb 2025/26, while ENSO-neutral conditions remain the next most likely outcome at 33% and 46%, respectively."
"Patterns confirm that La Niña conditions are firmly established."
"The probability of La Niña continuing is 67% for Nov–Jan 2025 and 53% for Dec–Feb 2025/26, while ENSO-neutral conditions remain the next most likely outcome at 33% and 46%, respectively."
November 20, 2025 at 4:11 AM
NEW from IRI:
"Patterns confirm that La Niña conditions are firmly established."
"The probability of La Niña continuing is 67% for Nov–Jan 2025 and 53% for Dec–Feb 2025/26, while ENSO-neutral conditions remain the next most likely outcome at 33% and 46%, respectively."
"Patterns confirm that La Niña conditions are firmly established."
"The probability of La Niña continuing is 67% for Nov–Jan 2025 and 53% for Dec–Feb 2025/26, while ENSO-neutral conditions remain the next most likely outcome at 33% and 46%, respectively."
So just to be 100% clear.
Given current government commitments, there is a ~25% chance these commitments will keep temperatures below 2ºC
Put another way, there is a ~75% chance this temperature will be breached.
URGENT adaptation is required NOW
Graphic: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
Given current government commitments, there is a ~25% chance these commitments will keep temperatures below 2ºC
Put another way, there is a ~75% chance this temperature will be breached.
URGENT adaptation is required NOW
Graphic: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
November 18, 2025 at 4:34 AM
So just to be 100% clear.
Given current government commitments, there is a ~25% chance these commitments will keep temperatures below 2ºC
Put another way, there is a ~75% chance this temperature will be breached.
URGENT adaptation is required NOW
Graphic: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
Given current government commitments, there is a ~25% chance these commitments will keep temperatures below 2ºC
Put another way, there is a ~75% chance this temperature will be breached.
URGENT adaptation is required NOW
Graphic: www.unep.org/resourc...
#ClimateCrisis
Acceleration
“In 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now that threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years.”
Source: climate.copernicus.eu/rapid-approa...
#ClimateCrisis
“In 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now that threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years.”
Source: climate.copernicus.eu/rapid-approa...
#ClimateCrisis
November 16, 2025 at 4:39 AM
Acceleration
“In 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now that threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years.”
Source: climate.copernicus.eu/rapid-approa...
#ClimateCrisis
“In 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now that threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years.”
Source: climate.copernicus.eu/rapid-approa...
#ClimateCrisis
This is important work!
From Imperial College:
“Through rapid studies, we deliver close to real-time estimates of how climate change has influenced the impacts of specific extreme weather events.”
1/2
From Imperial College:
“Through rapid studies, we deliver close to real-time estimates of how climate change has influenced the impacts of specific extreme weather events.”
1/2
November 15, 2025 at 4:48 AM
This is important work!
From Imperial College:
“Through rapid studies, we deliver close to real-time estimates of how climate change has influenced the impacts of specific extreme weather events.”
1/2
From Imperial College:
“Through rapid studies, we deliver close to real-time estimates of how climate change has influenced the impacts of specific extreme weather events.”
1/2
I beg to differ about not much of the world feeling the stress & threat from this
Currently just under half the world population live in high risk areas and are beginning to feel the impacts in real-time
But many in rich nations (like the US) are not as concerned - but this is coming for everyone
Currently just under half the world population live in high risk areas and are beginning to feel the impacts in real-time
But many in rich nations (like the US) are not as concerned - but this is coming for everyone
November 14, 2025 at 4:38 PM
I beg to differ about not much of the world feeling the stress & threat from this
Currently just under half the world population live in high risk areas and are beginning to feel the impacts in real-time
But many in rich nations (like the US) are not as concerned - but this is coming for everyone
Currently just under half the world population live in high risk areas and are beginning to feel the impacts in real-time
But many in rich nations (like the US) are not as concerned - but this is coming for everyone
In the US, as can be seen below, even those in the lowest income category are using *way* more energy than is needed for a decent living standard.
November 14, 2025 at 12:50 PM
In the US, as can be seen below, even those in the lowest income category are using *way* more energy than is needed for a decent living standard.
My response is summarised here:
November 14, 2025 at 11:50 AM
My response is summarised here:
Did you know?
The average U.S. citizen emits 14.2 tons of CO2/yr - that is over 3× the world average!
Meanwhile, India averages just 2.2 tons/person.
Lifestyle choices matter!
Shift to an EV
Fly less
Use renewable electricity
Shift to public transport
Switch to a vegan diet
Install a heat pump
The average U.S. citizen emits 14.2 tons of CO2/yr - that is over 3× the world average!
Meanwhile, India averages just 2.2 tons/person.
Lifestyle choices matter!
Shift to an EV
Fly less
Use renewable electricity
Shift to public transport
Switch to a vegan diet
Install a heat pump
November 14, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Did you know?
The average U.S. citizen emits 14.2 tons of CO2/yr - that is over 3× the world average!
Meanwhile, India averages just 2.2 tons/person.
Lifestyle choices matter!
Shift to an EV
Fly less
Use renewable electricity
Shift to public transport
Switch to a vegan diet
Install a heat pump
The average U.S. citizen emits 14.2 tons of CO2/yr - that is over 3× the world average!
Meanwhile, India averages just 2.2 tons/person.
Lifestyle choices matter!
Shift to an EV
Fly less
Use renewable electricity
Shift to public transport
Switch to a vegan diet
Install a heat pump
Unfortunately the areas that are currently experiencing drought are excluded from this event.
So this status pretty much remains:
So this status pretty much remains:
November 14, 2025 at 3:27 AM
Unfortunately the areas that are currently experiencing drought are excluded from this event.
So this status pretty much remains:
So this status pretty much remains:
SCIENCE: We have to stop burning fossil fuels to avoid catastrophe! Keep fossil fuels in the ground! Oh and a reduction of 6-7% PER YEAR is required to stay below 2°C
WORLD (in 2025): Whatever! We’ll just keep burning coal, oil and gas and increase emissions by 1.1% instead!
#ClimateDenial
WORLD (in 2025): Whatever! We’ll just keep burning coal, oil and gas and increase emissions by 1.1% instead!
#ClimateDenial
November 14, 2025 at 3:21 AM
SCIENCE: We have to stop burning fossil fuels to avoid catastrophe! Keep fossil fuels in the ground! Oh and a reduction of 6-7% PER YEAR is required to stay below 2°C
WORLD (in 2025): Whatever! We’ll just keep burning coal, oil and gas and increase emissions by 1.1% instead!
#ClimateDenial
WORLD (in 2025): Whatever! We’ll just keep burning coal, oil and gas and increase emissions by 1.1% instead!
#ClimateDenial
Early Warning for severe weather event in South Africa in the coming days.
Some places in the forecast are showing +100mm in a 24hr period.
With the atmosphere holding more water extreme precipitation is becoming the norm these days.
Some places in the forecast are showing +100mm in a 24hr period.
With the atmosphere holding more water extreme precipitation is becoming the norm these days.
November 14, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Early Warning for severe weather event in South Africa in the coming days.
Some places in the forecast are showing +100mm in a 24hr period.
With the atmosphere holding more water extreme precipitation is becoming the norm these days.
Some places in the forecast are showing +100mm in a 24hr period.
With the atmosphere holding more water extreme precipitation is becoming the norm these days.
NEW from NOAA CPC:
"La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance)."
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...
"La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance)."
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...
November 13, 2025 at 3:46 PM
NEW from NOAA CPC:
"La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance)."
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...
"La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance)."
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...
ICYMI from JMA
November 2025 El Niño Outlook
Full outlook text here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tc...
#ClimateLiteracy
November 2025 El Niño Outlook
Full outlook text here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tc...
#ClimateLiteracy
November 12, 2025 at 3:42 AM
ICYMI from JMA
November 2025 El Niño Outlook
Full outlook text here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tc...
#ClimateLiteracy
November 2025 El Niño Outlook
Full outlook text here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tc...
#ClimateLiteracy
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
November 10, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Projection looking out 13-15 years (2ºC)
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
The climate chaos freight train is coming for this place.
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
November 10, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Reporting from the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis via the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies:
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
“Kenya is ‘in the grip of a worsening climate and humanitarian crisis’”
www.climatecentre.or...
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
November 9, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Honestly, these people just don't get it.
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"
"Michelle Grisham (New Mexico governor) said New Mexico has in recent years increased oil & gas production but cut its methane output in half." She referred "to a policy approach that supports the development and use of renewables and fossil fuels alike"