Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
7.3K followers 290 following 400 posts

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦 I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog. https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
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peterdutoit.com
We *really* need to listen to the actuaries who have an intimate understanding of risk management as we face the expanding #ClimateCrisis

Do this ASAP:

1. Read Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk/document-lib...

2. Then listen to @racheldonald.bsky.social’s excellent interview with Sandy Trust
Planetary Solvency | Sandy Trust
YouTube video by Planet: Critical
youtu.be

peterdutoit.com
EDGAR 2025:

“According to the latest data, global GHG emissions in 2024 experienced an increase of 1.3% compared to the levels in 2023.”

To keep under 2°C emissions should have fallen by 5.5% in 2024 and EVERY year thereafter until 2030.

Source: edgar.jrc.ec.europa....
Global GHG emission trends by sector and key years

peterdutoit.com
Here is an example of the action we can take. Starting right now!

Here is the link to this scenario en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.htm...
Screen grab showing a En-ROADS scenario where temperatures have been taken from the default of 3.3ºC to 1.7ºC

Reposted by Peter Thorne

peterdutoit.com
It CANNOT be said that we didn't have the technology AND know-how to radically cut emissions.

As per this example from the #EnROADS simulator, we could, if we wanted, to slam the brakes on our current emissions trajectory by acting on these areas!

Test it for yourself!

en-roads.climateinte...
Screenshot of the En-ROADS climate simulator dashboard showing all the areas we can act on to reduce emissions:

Energy Supply
Transport
Buildings & Industry
Economic & Population Growth
Carbon Dioxide Removal 
Agricultural Emissions
Waste & Leakage
Deforestation

peterdutoit.com
25 African countries imported at least 100 MW of solar panels in the last year

Imports of solar panels from China in the 12 months to June 2025, megawatts
25 African countries imported at least 100 MW of solar panels in the last year

Imports of solar panels from China in the 12 months to June 2025, megawatts

peterdutoit.com
Imagine not having to be held captive by the Petrostates!

African countries are discovering that energy security is within their reach!

Africa can leapfrog fossil fuels as electricity generation source!

Graphic source: ember-energy.org/lat...

Reposted by Du Toit

ec.europa.eu
Lower bills. More efficient energy use.

By now, all EU countries must have translated the Energy Efficiency Directive into national law.

This is a key step to reduce energy consumption and support those most affected by high energy costs and those facing energy poverty ↓
A graphic on a blue background resembling the EU energy label, but with the letters S.A.V.I.N.G.S. replacing the efficiency classes. The letters progress from green (best efficiency) to orange (worst efficiency). It includes several yellow EU stars and the EU commission logo in the corner.

peterdutoit.com
ICYMI from JMA: El Niño Outlook Oct 2025 - Apr 2026

“The La Niña-like conditions are likely to continue toward the first half of boreal winter. However, it will rapidly weaken, therefore it is more likely (80%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until the late boreal winter.”
1/2
Forecast probabilities of five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 based on JMA/MRI-CPS3.

Red, yellow, and blue bars indicate probabilities that the five-month running mean of NINO.3 SST deviation from the latest sliding 30-year mean is +0.5°C or above, between +0.4°C and -0.4°C, and -0.5°C or below, respectively. Labels in lightface indicate the past months, and ones in bold face indicate the current and future months

peterdutoit.com
So more of these to to be taken by the ocean?
Aerial image of Kohler Court in Rodanthe showing homes lost and at risk of being lost

peterdutoit.com
Signs that methane gas is losing its grip on the US.

“An increasing share of U.S. households are using electricity for heating. In 2024, 42% (up from 35% in 2010) of U.S. households reported that electricity was their main space heating fuel.”

Methane gas usage declines from 49% to 47%

1/2
Graphic showing decline in methane gas usage for heating in US homes below which is hown the annual fossil emissions in the US with methane gas the second highest contributor.

peterdutoit.com
The EU, Japan, South Korea & the International Shipping industry should hold a conference to teach the rest of the world how to reduce emissions!

Requirement to avoid crossing 2°C: an annual reduction of 5.5% starting in 2024 until 2030.

Currently the world is COMPLETELY off track.

#ClimateCrisis
peterdutoit.com
In the 2025 EDGAR Report the US no longer holds poll position for emissions per capita (t CO2e/Cap) in 2024.

1st: Saudi Arabia - 22.8
2nd: Australia - 22.3
3rd: Canada - 19.6
4th: Russia - 18
5th: United States - 17.3

Data: edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2025
2024 GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq), shares in global emissions13, changes relative to 202314, emissions per capita (t CO2eq/cap), and CAGR15 (1990-2024) (%) for countries and regions accounting for over 1% of global GHG emissions, including international aviation and international shipping.

peterdutoit.com
Watching the US be reconfigured by the Project 2025 blueprint is something else.

They are ticking boxes at an astonishing rate.

8 months and 22 weeks in
39 months to go

The US will be unrecognisable in 2029.

peterdutoit.com
ICYMI from CPC:

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).

Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...
Figure 7. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index (5°N-5°S,
120°W-170°W). Figure updated 9 October 2025.

peterdutoit.com
To quote @climatologist49.bsky.social “it’s almost as if something has changed”

Pay attention!

#ClimateCrisis
zacklabe.com
Record high temperatures are currently being set across the northernmost portions of the #Arctic. In fact, it is effectively ice-free on the Atlantic side of the Arctic all the way up to about 85°N latitude! This includes record low sea ice around Svalbard.

Graphic by zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe...
Line graph time series of 2025's daily 2-m temperature in the Arctic compared to each year from 1958 through 2024. There is a long-term warming trend for every day of the year. There is also large interannual variability and a clear seasonal cycle.
zacklabe.com
Record high temperatures are currently being set across the northernmost portions of the #Arctic. In fact, it is effectively ice-free on the Atlantic side of the Arctic all the way up to about 85°N latitude! This includes record low sea ice around Svalbard.

Graphic by zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe...
Line graph time series of 2025's daily 2-m temperature in the Arctic compared to each year from 1958 through 2024. There is a long-term warming trend for every day of the year. There is also large interannual variability and a clear seasonal cycle.
waderstudy.bsky.social
Today IUCN has officially declared the Slender-billed Curlew extinct, marking the first known global extinction of a formerly widespread migratory bird species whose range included mainland Europe, North Africa, and West Asia.

Read more here ⬇️
www.unep-aewa.org/fr/node/6632

Reposted by Du Toit

nickbreeze.genn.cc
#EU rejects US gov's 1970's vision of prosperity & preWW1- fantasies of imperial colonialism.
'The European Commission.. rejected the US’ demands regarding its environmental regulations which Washington considers too restrictive for its companies.'
www.euronews.com/business/202...
'Not up for discussion': Brussels rejects US pressure on climate rules
In response to US demands to roll back the EU's environmental legislation, the European Commission defended its autonomous power to adopt laws.
www.euronews.com

peterdutoit.com
Areas as risk as early as 2030 - just 4 years away.

#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise
Map showing the Mekong Delta flooded as early as 2030.

Map from Climate Central's Coastal Risk Assessment Tool

Reposted by Du Toit

janrosenow.bsky.social
China ≠ just coal plants and solar exports. The deeper shift: electrifying everything it can. Strategic, because China relies on imported fossil fuels. Coal is still king in the power mix—for now. But the balance is changing year by year.

peterdutoit.com
This gap is now set to widen.

The US is intent on getting completely left behind.
Installed solar energy capacity China vs United States

peterdutoit.com
Public transport in the world’s first electrostate.

Showcasing Guangzhou South Station.

Reposted by Du Toit

peterdutoit.com
These charts are something else.

New battery electric car sales so far in 2025:

China: 31%
US: 8%

Source: robbieandrew.github....
Chinese new passenger car sales by type: Monthly US new light-duty vehicle sales by type: Monthly

peterdutoit.com
Emissions between 2019 and 2020 fell by 4.7% - the biggest decline coming from transportation (land & air)

To stay below 2°C emissions MUST fall by 5.5% EVERY year from now until 2030.

We know how to do this!

🚶or 🚲 to work if you can
🚋 use public transport more
🚗 drive less
✈️ fly less

peterdutoit.com
NEW from C3S/ECMWF - September instrument analysis (ERA5 dataset)

+1.47°C above 1850-1900 average
+1.51°C current 12-month running mean

Sea Surface Temperatures 3rd highest on record

Analysis here: climate.copernicus.e...
Graphic showing 12-month runing mean as +1.51°C  in the ERA5 dataset Graphic showing Daily sea surface temperature for 60°S-60°N. 2025 shown as 3rd highest on record
adriftalchemist.bsky.social
kotzebue, alaska declared a mandatory evacuation order

peterdutoit.com
Sunny day flooding is happening regularly where we are. The red areas on the map are areas projected to be below the annual flood line in 2030.

High tides and storm surges flood the streets easily.

NASA #SeaLevelRise projection by 2030 for this area 0.11m.

Stranded assets on the horizon!
Graphic showing flood risks for Knysna South Africa with a photo of tidal street flooding on October 7th