Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
Pinned
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com
· Nov 8
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."
Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell
#ClimateCrisis
The climate crisis *will* exploit every structural weakness in every place, illustrated well by the situation unfolding in Knysna, South Africa as they approach day zero.
“Knysna has days of water left after years of ‘long-term operational and management failures’”
www.dailymaverick.co...
“Knysna has days of water left after years of ‘long-term operational and management failures’”
www.dailymaverick.co...
January 17, 2026 at 11:46 AM
The climate crisis *will* exploit every structural weakness in every place, illustrated well by the situation unfolding in Knysna, South Africa as they approach day zero.
“Knysna has days of water left after years of ‘long-term operational and management failures’”
www.dailymaverick.co...
“Knysna has days of water left after years of ‘long-term operational and management failures’”
www.dailymaverick.co...
Let us NEVER forget those who have contributed the least to atmospheric pollution now causing climate chaos and are suffering disproportionately!
What you see here is all playing out at ~1.5°C heating.
What happens when we cross 2°C in the next decade or so?
Reporting: @news.dw.com
What you see here is all playing out at ~1.5°C heating.
What happens when we cross 2°C in the next decade or so?
Reporting: @news.dw.com
January 17, 2026 at 10:49 AM
Let us NEVER forget those who have contributed the least to atmospheric pollution now causing climate chaos and are suffering disproportionately!
What you see here is all playing out at ~1.5°C heating.
What happens when we cross 2°C in the next decade or so?
Reporting: @news.dw.com
What you see here is all playing out at ~1.5°C heating.
What happens when we cross 2°C in the next decade or so?
Reporting: @news.dw.com
The first half of January 2026 has averaged +1.55ºC above preindustrial
Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025)
Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place.
This is a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025)
Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place.
This is a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
January 17, 2026 at 7:02 AM
The first half of January 2026 has averaged +1.55ºC above preindustrial
Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025)
Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place.
This is a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025)
Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place.
This is a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
Reposted by Peter du Toit
As the climate data for 2025 continues to be released, it's time to update various data visualisations.
First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added.
The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.
First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added.
The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.
January 14, 2026 at 11:02 AM
As the climate data for 2025 continues to be released, it's time to update various data visualisations.
First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added.
The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.
First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added.
The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.
Reposted by Peter du Toit
While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
January 14, 2026 at 11:35 AM
While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026.
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
We are including a number of additional surface temperature datasets, including DCENT (out of Harvard), the Japanese JRA-3Q reanalysis product, and the China-MST dataset. Here are the values for each, both as reported and using a common preindustrial baseline:
January 14, 2026 at 3:58 PM
Reposted by Peter du Toit
[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
January 14, 2026 at 1:23 PM
[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
🌍 Berkeley Earth’s 2025 Global Temperature Report is out.
2025 was the 3rd warmest year on record. Annual global temperature reached 1.44 ± 0.09°C above the pre-industrial baseline; 770 million people experienced locally record-warm annual conditions.
Full report: berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
2025 was the 3rd warmest year on record. Annual global temperature reached 1.44 ± 0.09°C above the pre-industrial baseline; 770 million people experienced locally record-warm annual conditions.
Full report: berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
Global Temperature Report for 2025 - Berkeley Earth
2025 was the 3rd warmest year on Earth since direct observations began, and recent warming appears to be moving faster than expected.
berkeleyearth.org
January 14, 2026 at 3:19 PM
Reposted by Peter du Toit
Global mean temperature 2025: 1.44 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a synthesis of eight international datasets.
2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest.
That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record.
wmo.int/news/media-c...
2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest.
That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record.
wmo.int/news/media-c...
WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record
wmo.int
January 14, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Global mean temperature 2025: 1.44 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a synthesis of eight international datasets.
2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest.
That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record.
wmo.int/news/media-c...
2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest.
That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record.
wmo.int/news/media-c...
January 14, 2026 at 7:20 AM
2025 has been confirmed as the third warmest year on record, following 2024 and 2023, in a series stretching back to 1850.
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
January 14, 2026 at 6:01 AM
Reminder:
Today 8 datasets drop their 2025 analysis.
ECMWF (ERA5)
JMA (JRA-55)
NASA (JRA-55)
NOAA (NOAAGlobalTemp v5)
UK Met Office (HadCRUT.5.0.1.0)
Berkeley Earth
UK/USA (DCENT)
China (CMST)
I will add them below as they become available.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
Today 8 datasets drop their 2025 analysis.
ECMWF (ERA5)
JMA (JRA-55)
NASA (JRA-55)
NOAA (NOAAGlobalTemp v5)
UK Met Office (HadCRUT.5.0.1.0)
Berkeley Earth
UK/USA (DCENT)
China (CMST)
I will add them below as they become available.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
January 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Reminder:
Today 8 datasets drop their 2025 analysis.
ECMWF (ERA5)
JMA (JRA-55)
NASA (JRA-55)
NOAA (NOAAGlobalTemp v5)
UK Met Office (HadCRUT.5.0.1.0)
Berkeley Earth
UK/USA (DCENT)
China (CMST)
I will add them below as they become available.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
Today 8 datasets drop their 2025 analysis.
ECMWF (ERA5)
JMA (JRA-55)
NASA (JRA-55)
NOAA (NOAAGlobalTemp v5)
UK Met Office (HadCRUT.5.0.1.0)
Berkeley Earth
UK/USA (DCENT)
China (CMST)
I will add them below as they become available.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
Reposted by Peter du Toit
2025 has been confirmed as the third warmest year on record, following 2024 and 2023, in a series stretching back to 1850.
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
January 14, 2026 at 5:30 AM
2025 has been confirmed as the third warmest year on record, following 2024 and 2023, in a series stretching back to 1850.
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
Data from the Met Office, @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social and @ncas-uk.bsky.social shows 2025 was 1.41 °C above the average for 1850-1900.
Read more 👉 bit.ly/3NkfQH9
As mentioned before, the Garden Route on South Africa’s southern coast is experiencing severe water shortages with the town of Knysna the hardest hit.
Latest data shows the town had the least rainfall in 2025 in the past 46 years!
As we sail through 1.5°C this is projected to become the norm!
Latest data shows the town had the least rainfall in 2025 in the past 46 years!
As we sail through 1.5°C this is projected to become the norm!
January 14, 2026 at 4:46 AM
As mentioned before, the Garden Route on South Africa’s southern coast is experiencing severe water shortages with the town of Knysna the hardest hit.
Latest data shows the town had the least rainfall in 2025 in the past 46 years!
As we sail through 1.5°C this is projected to become the norm!
Latest data shows the town had the least rainfall in 2025 in the past 46 years!
As we sail through 1.5°C this is projected to become the norm!
Reposted by Peter du Toit
This thread responds to Prof. Christian Dunn’s Telegraph piece on #climate communication.
I argue it misdiagnoses public disengagement, underplays escalating scientific risk, & reproduces a media narrative that has actively shaped, not merely reflected, public resistance to climate action 🧵
I argue it misdiagnoses public disengagement, underplays escalating scientific risk, & reproduces a media narrative that has actively shaped, not merely reflected, public resistance to climate action 🧵
January 13, 2026 at 8:58 AM
This thread responds to Prof. Christian Dunn’s Telegraph piece on #climate communication.
I argue it misdiagnoses public disengagement, underplays escalating scientific risk, & reproduces a media narrative that has actively shaped, not merely reflected, public resistance to climate action 🧵
I argue it misdiagnoses public disengagement, underplays escalating scientific risk, & reproduces a media narrative that has actively shaped, not merely reflected, public resistance to climate action 🧵
Reposted by Peter du Toit
California just lowered its carbon footprint
Sergey Brin is joining fellow Google founder Larry Page in cutting his ties to California ahead of a proposed state tax on billionaires. Our latest: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/t...
Google Guys Say Bye to California
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 6:41 PM
California just lowered its carbon footprint
Reposted by Peter du Toit
📆 Mark your calendars!
On 14 January, WMO will release global temperature figures for 2025, consolidating multiple international datasets to provide a single, authoritative source of information to support climate monitoring and decision-making.
More details below:
🔗 https://bit.ly/3Ysu9vE
On 14 January, WMO will release global temperature figures for 2025, consolidating multiple international datasets to provide a single, authoritative source of information to support climate monitoring and decision-making.
More details below:
🔗 https://bit.ly/3Ysu9vE
January 12, 2026 at 6:26 AM
📆 Mark your calendars!
On 14 January, WMO will release global temperature figures for 2025, consolidating multiple international datasets to provide a single, authoritative source of information to support climate monitoring and decision-making.
More details below:
🔗 https://bit.ly/3Ysu9vE
On 14 January, WMO will release global temperature figures for 2025, consolidating multiple international datasets to provide a single, authoritative source of information to support climate monitoring and decision-making.
More details below:
🔗 https://bit.ly/3Ysu9vE
Meanwhile in the north east of the country we have an *extreme* precipitation event playing out.
January 12, 2026 at 3:11 AM
Meanwhile in the north east of the country we have an *extreme* precipitation event playing out.
Many areas here in the Western Cape have had rough week with fires.
100,000 hectares have burnt. It’s been extremely dry and hot and the winds have been intense.
This was all predicted to intensify as we cross 1.5°C of heating.
100,000 hectares have burnt. It’s been extremely dry and hot and the winds have been intense.
This was all predicted to intensify as we cross 1.5°C of heating.
January 12, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Many areas here in the Western Cape have had rough week with fires.
100,000 hectares have burnt. It’s been extremely dry and hot and the winds have been intense.
This was all predicted to intensify as we cross 1.5°C of heating.
100,000 hectares have burnt. It’s been extremely dry and hot and the winds have been intense.
This was all predicted to intensify as we cross 1.5°C of heating.
Reposted by Peter du Toit
2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹
"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."
+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn
"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."
+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn
January 10, 2026 at 4:32 PM
2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹
"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."
+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn
"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."
+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn