Peter du Toit
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peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit
@peterdutoit.com

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 60 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.

https://peterdutoit.com .. more

du Toit is an Afrikaans surname of French origin, originally from François du Toit, a Huguenot who moved to South Africa in 1686. It translates as "of the roof". People with the surname include:Alexander du Toit (1878–1948), South African geologist Anri du Toit aka Yolandi Visser, South African musician Braam du Toit, South African composer Christiaan du Toit (1901–1982), South African military commander Daniel du Toit (1871–1959), South African astronomer Dirk du Toit (1943–2009), South African politician Elize du Toit, South African born, British actress Flooi du Toit (1869–1909), South African cricketer Francois Jacobus du Toit (1897–1961), South African journalist and economist Gaffie du Toit, South African rugby union Jacob Daniël du Toit, South African poet and translator Jané du Toit, Namibian rugby union footballer Lydia Lindeque (1916–1997), South African actor Natalie du Toit, South African swimmer Nick du Toit, South African arms dealer Paul du Toit (1965–2014), South African artist Pieter-Steph du Toit, South African rugby union player Rachel Alida du Toit (1916–1997), South African actor Sarel Petrus du Toit (1864–1930), Second Boer War Boer general Simoné du Toit, South African shot putter Stephanus Jacobus du Toit (1847–1911), South African Afrikaans language pioneer Wikus du Toit, South African actor .. more

Environmental science 54%
Geography 13%
Pinned
Ignore the blah blah blah and remember this:

"Since atmospheric GHGs [which increased by +2.3% in 2024] drive global warming, [this is] ultimately the metric that matters for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

Unless these decline we are on a steady march to hell

#ClimateCrisis

Reposted by Du Toit

EU 2035 latest: The oil lobby’s push for an EU biofuels loophole could create an unsustainable demand for animal fats and used cooking oil – the equivalent of 120 pigs per car.

A 🧵 on what this loophole would mean for Europe’s limited supply of advanced biofuels 👇

I cannot emphasise how important it is to take some time out of your day to absorb presentation

This is a *direct* result of our refusal to stop burning coal, oil and methane gas

What is presented here are consequences at ~1.5°C

The current NDC trajectory is ~2.5°C

We are on a highway to hell
Want a state-of-the-art explainer on the big changes occurring in the Antarctic?

Check out this recent briefing, delivered to COP30 @iccinet.bsky.social

Very much designed for the non-expert, so don't be afraid to dip in!

www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw... 1/2
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Want a state-of-the-art explainer on the big changes occurring in the Antarctic?

Check out this recent briefing, delivered to COP30 @iccinet.bsky.social

Very much designed for the non-expert, so don't be afraid to dip in!

www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw... 1/2
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Violent conflict over #water hit a record last year
2024 saw a record number of violent incidents over water around the world, far surpassing the 355 in 2023, continuing a steeply rising trend. Violence has more than quadrupled in the last five years.

www.latimes.com/environment/...
Violent conflict over water hit a record last year
Violence over water is on the rise worldwide. Researchers counted a record 420 incidents of conflict in 2024, many in Ukraine and the Middle East.
www.latimes.com

Knysna on the South African south coast is at high risk of water shortages as it primarily relies on river extraction to supply the town.

The municipality published their “contingency” plan to ward off Day Zero.

Here are all the red flags:

peterdutoit.com/knys...

Reporting from Reuters.
Disaster unfolding in Thailand with background global heating at ~1.5°C.

“Crisis has hit about 2 million people and left an entire southern city under water.”

www.scmp.com/week-as...

#ClimateCrisis
‘Desert island’: trapped Thais plead for rescue as floodwaters rise
The navy will deploy an aircraft carrier and deliver meals to help those in the flood-hit south, amid public outcry over chaotic relief efforts.
www.scmp.com

Reposted by Du Toit

“For three years, we have suffered droughts & heatwaves of over 40C. I have lost 50% of my production over this period. The Aude has seen its wine production almost halve to 2m hectolitres [200m litres] over the last three years.”

#France 🇫🇷
#ClimateCrisis

🌡= 🚫🍷 🍇
French winemakers ‘battle for survival’ as minister prepares for crisis talks
Vineyard owners say sales slump, Trump tariffs and worst harvest in 70 years have put producers in danger of closure
www.theguardian.com

The closer we look the worse it is - all at ~1.5°C.

"The ocean condition is transforming in multiple dimensions at once, and even the deep ocean—once considered stable—is responding more rapidly than we thought.”— Prof. Lijing Cheng (IAP/CAS)

phys.org/news/2025-1...

#ClimateCrisis
Ocean's upper 1,000 meters undergoing unprecedented, deep-reaching compound change
Earth's ocean, the planet's life-support system, is experiencing rapid and widespread transformations that extend far below its surface. A promising international study published in Nature Climate Change ...
phys.org

Reposted by Du Toit

All latitude bands were warmer than average over the last 6 months. This was particularly visible across the Arctic and Antarctic regions. 🔥

Plot shows zonal-mean temperature anomalies, where latitude = y-axis (not scaled by distance). GISTEMPv4 data using their 1951-1980 baseline.

ICYMI the WMO seasonal (Dec-Feb) climate update:

🌡️ "The forecast indicates a strong global signal for enhanced probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures."

🌧️ "Overall, the DJF 2025/26 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern"

Source: wmo.int/media/update...

The current trajectory:

2024 emissions increased by 2.3% from 2023.
2025 emissions are projected to increase by 1.1% from 2024

Focus!

UNEP (2025): "Since atmospheric GHG concentrations drive global warming, these are ultimately the metrics that matter for meeting the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement."

If these are not curbed we are on a highway to hell.
‘Fossil fuel giants finally in the crosshairs’: Cop30 avoids total failure with last-ditch deal
It took some oblique wording, but Saudi Arabia made a last-minute decision to sign deal that marks departure for Cop
www.theguardian.com

The American wipeout continues unabated 🤷🏻
EPA just approved new ‘forever chemical’ pesticides for use on food - The Boston Globe
The agency approved two new pesticides that will be used on vegetables such as romaine lettuce, broccoli, and potatoes.
www.bostonglobe.com

Reposted by Du Toit

Another climate conferernce ends, another missed opportunity to avert disaster. We've failed to limit warming to 1.5°C. The worlds is going to become more dangerous. This means climate policy must reflect this new reality. 1/6
www.technosphere.earth/living-beyon...
Living beyond limits
Decades of climate policy failure means we must find ways to live in a more dangerous world
www.technosphere.earth

Prudent 101 risk management!

Sorry you lost me

Full quote from a local ward councillor here

peterdutoit.com/knysna-water...

A small town on South Africa’s south coast is 23 days from Day Zero.

Today they had to switch off the river extraction pumps due to extreme low water flow.

Knysna has been plagued by municipal mismanagement and infrastructure issues and the drought has amplified all this.

Population: 98,000

Trump, war, attention deficit: five threats to climate progress that dogged Cop30

Did the talks succeed or fail? The verdict must take account of the geopolitical minefield in which they took place

Jonathan Watts in Belém

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Trump, war, absent media: five threats to climate progress that dogged Cop30
Did the talks succeed or fail? The verdict must take account of the geopolitical minefield they took place in
www.theguardian.com

As projected here www.nature.com/articles/s41... we are steadily moving toward a situation where are major town or city runs out of water

There are early signs of this everywhere, right now Iran seems to be a hotspot at ~1.5ºC of heating

We are *utterly* unprepared for what comes at 1.6, 1.7 & 2ºC

Now that a failed COP30 is in the rearview mirror, there are consequences just ahead, one being that staying under 2ºC is now implausible.

Forewarned is forearmed.

peterdutoit.com/cons...

#ClimateCrisis #RealityCheck
Consequences just ahead
Now that COP30 has ended as a COP-tastrophe (thanks Drilled Media) and this despite the UNEP clearly outlining that in order to remain below 2ºC will require that emissions fall by ~5% PER YEAR beginning now. What are the emissions projections for 2025? Given all this, it is little wonder that Dr James Hansen in […]
peterdutoit.com
“What once sounded unthinkable is now being said openly: Tehran is not viable; and evacuation orders are imminent.
As I wrote before, President Masoud Pezeshkian himself said that it might be necessary to relocate Tehranis in large number.” open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...
Makran or Bust: Tehran's water crisis gets worse
Ten days ago I wrote that Tehran was approaching a point where warnings, pressure cuts and appeals to save water would no longer be enough.
open.substack.com

"A climate decision that cannot even say fossil fuels is not neutrality, it is complicity. And what is happening here transcends incompetence.”— Juan Carlos Monterrey, Panama

www.reuters.com/sust...

#COP30
World secures compromise deal at COP30 that sidesteps fossil fuels
Participants tried to demonstrate global unity in addressing climate-change impact even after the world's biggest historic emitter, the United States, declined to send an official delegation.
www.reuters.com
Fossil fuels are fine unless you use them for anything.

Stop burning #fossilfuels. Stop turning them into plastics.
Leave them in the ground.

Part 2:

Full press briefing via @fossiltreaty.bsky.social

youtu.be/587YAiouEwM

Special Envoy Juan Carlos from Panama speaks for millions of us as COP30 ends

“A climate text that cannot mention fossil fuels is a climate text that refuses to speak the truth…”

Part 1:

Let's hope this grows into a massive movement as COP's have failed catastrophically.
▶️ WATCH: Ministers from Colombia and the Netherlands announce their joint Conference for the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels 🔥