Paul E. Johnson | Lightnews

Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1.6K followers 790 following 810 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him

Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul E. Johnson is an American historian and professor emeritus at University of South Carolina.

Source: Wikipedia

Philosophy 17%

History 15%

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11

I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson

What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

paulrjohnson.net

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 3h

OBR? Office for Budget Reveals amirite?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 5h

Yeah all these leagues are different in their own ways. Some of that might be bad but plenty isn't. I love the Bundesliga because it is so open and chaotic (same reason I love the Championship). But it also impacts certain players' numbers. Pretending otherwise seems silly.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 6h

We getting mad about stuff? Hell yeah brother, count me in.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

ᑕ ᕼ ᓰ ᗷ 〇 ᒪ 乇 @chibole.bsky.social · 12h

Bolsonaro behind bars is a reminder: democracies survive when they stop letting criminals play government.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 17h

Wait pecan pie is divisive?

Brendel @brendelbored.bsky.social · 17h

I think Pecan Pie is one of those things that is divisive now because it’s just a blob of sugar with nuts on it but to someone 150 years ago who ate shoes it was probably like having 12 orgasms at once

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Lavajackal @lavajackal.bsky.social · 17h

There's this weird mindset that voters won't object to a breaking of tax promises is if it's done in a sufficiently convoluted way. Like they're fae creatures impressed you found a way around their contract terms or something.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Brendel @brendelbored.bsky.social · 17h

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 18h

I have to savour these moments.

A screenshot of the full time result of the Borussia Dortmund and Southampton games. Borussia Dortmund beat Villarreal 4-0 (Villarreal had one red card), and Southampton beat Leicester City 3-0 (Leicester also had one red card).

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 18h

I suspect it's this. Folks are struggling to see the truth of what Henry said because they're used to folks saying other shit. bsky.app/profile/paul...

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

I think BuLi fans are used to the league being shit on and have probably jumped the gun a bit. I get it, but I don't think Henry said anything disrespectful, and I appreciate he didn't just put it down to the league being bad.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 19h

Southampton and Dortmund both winning 3-0. As we all predicted.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

50 Plus Döner @50plusdoner.bsky.social · 19h

Leverkusen firing Ten Hag in like 5 weeks is basically like when J. Cole apologized to Kendrick in 24 hours.

They looked dumb doing it, but it was the smart move in the end and now they can sleep soundly at night while doing fun things like beating Manchester City

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 19h

Southampton Football Club are the best team in the world. I'm always saying this.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 20h

Good to see Harvey Barnes going out there and proving the haters (@themlg.bsky.social) wrong once again.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 21h

I think what's interesting (from my English perspective) is how little this sort of thing is on anyone's radar over here. Folks talk about the arrogance of English football fans... I think it's more an insularity. Most folks are completely unaware this is going on!

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 1d

the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse

Philippe Auclair @philippeauclair.bsky.social · 1d

The news that Belgian football feared: as happened in France, DAZN is pulling out of its broadcasting deal with the ProLeague with immediate effect. Should no solution be found (which appears the likeliest scenario), the league's 16th round will not be broadcast in Belgium.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Christina @christina6ys.bsky.social · 1d

Follow up from last month. This time with a more narrow focus on wide attackers for a more fair positional comparison. Salah is a great player but it's not quite working right now. Unusual territory.

Data visualization plot of ground duels won percentage represented as a Z score by minutes played for select wide attackers in the English Premier League since November 25th.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

The title race is not over until the probability of one team winning the league is 100% (Bayern Munich currently have a probability of 98.9%, according to my model).

Elsewhere, Leverkusen are beating BVB to the "best other team in the Bundesliga" title.

predicting-ball.co.uk

#BVB #Bundesliga

Streamlit

predicting-ball.co.uk

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 1d

the economics of league football outside a few large countries keep getting worse and worse

Philippe Auclair @philippeauclair.bsky.social · 1d

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

I'm not interested in any secret to anything that isn't just “a shitload of butter”

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

Yer da watches team training sessions

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

This is what happens when you buy loads of Bundesliga players. Turned your league into one great team and a massive blob of who knows.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

I find it more annoying when folks act like the “tax” is just because the league is shit. Henry didn't do that. He approached it with more nuance and I think he more or less nailed it.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

I know everyone is real mad about this but I don't think he's wrong? Part of what we enjoy about the Bundesliga is the chaos and how open it can be. That inflates some players’ numbers!

50 Plus Döner @50plusdoner.bsky.social · 1d

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1d

I've been saying!

Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 1d

Do not remember the last time I enjoyed a soccer game that much. We should slap each other in the face more often.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 1d

Do not remember the last time I enjoyed a soccer game that much. We should slap each other in the face more often.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

⋮⋮⋮ ＳＩＥＧＥ @siegefault.bsky.social · 2d

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

What if I suspect I already know the answer but want to avoid the question for as long as possible so I don't have to admit to myself what I really am?

Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 4d

ryan lizza is asking you to decide if you’re normal sick or willing to pay for this shit sick

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

Is this about the Ashes?

Ashley Feinberg @ashleyfeinberg.bsky.social · 4d

honestly with how much these two deserve each other it's kind of beautiful they found each other if only for a little bit 😍

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

Just woke up and checked the score. Cricket is very stupid.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Ashley Feinberg @ashleyfeinberg.bsky.social · 4d

honestly with how much these two deserve each other it's kind of beautiful they found each other if only for a little bit 😍

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