Paul Johnson
@paulrjohnson.net
Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him
Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989
Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989
Pinned
Paul Johnson
@paulrjohnson.net
· Nov 11
Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson
What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?
paulrjohnson.net
I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.
paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...
The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.
paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...
The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.
What if I suspect I already know the answer but want to avoid the question for as long as possible so I don't have to admit to myself what I really am?
ryan lizza is asking you to decide if you’re normal sick or willing to pay for this shit sick
November 22, 2025 at 9:17 AM
What if I suspect I already know the answer but want to avoid the question for as long as possible so I don't have to admit to myself what I really am?
Is this about the Ashes?
honestly with how much these two deserve each other it's kind of beautiful they found each other if only for a little bit 😍
November 22, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Is this about the Ashes?
Just woke up and checked the score. Cricket is very stupid.
November 22, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Just woke up and checked the score. Cricket is very stupid.
That sounds bad. Is that bad?
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg
November 21, 2025 at 12:39 PM
That sounds bad. Is that bad?
Reposted by Paul Johnson
I think this would require seeing British children as people, which would be an affront to how politics works in this country
Why don’t people mention the impact of school closures during lockdown on graduate employment and neets?
November 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM
I think this would require seeing British children as people, which would be an affront to how politics works in this country
Why isn't London Pickle Festival called Deptford Dilly Day?
November 20, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Why isn't London Pickle Festival called Deptford Dilly Day?
I believe this image was taken from the proposed citizenship test drawn up in the campaign for independence.
November 20, 2025 at 11:52 AM
I believe this image was taken from the proposed citizenship test drawn up in the campaign for independence.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
The core aim of the Terf movement - a tiny number of newspaper columnists who melted the brains of middle aged reactionaries - was always to encourage maximum public hostility against transgender people, and give them the impunity to act upon it.
November 20, 2025 at 7:50 AM
The core aim of the Terf movement - a tiny number of newspaper columnists who melted the brains of middle aged reactionaries - was always to encourage maximum public hostility against transgender people, and give them the impunity to act upon it.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Ended up writing a short blog about antigravity. Hopefully they fix the bug (?) with model overloading. prateek.fyi/blog/antigra...
November 19, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Ended up writing a short blog about antigravity. Hopefully they fix the bug (?) with model overloading. prateek.fyi/blog/antigra...
Reposted by Paul Johnson
it is almost as if accommodating and conceding to far right ideas legitimizes them and signals to voters that the far right is a legitimate choice for governance
The Danish Social Democrats are currently on course for their worst election result since at least the Second World War, despite their brand of far-right accommodationism being touted as a blueprint for other centre-left parties.
Oh
November 18, 2025 at 2:24 PM
it is almost as if accommodating and conceding to far right ideas legitimizes them and signals to voters that the far right is a legitimate choice for governance
No idea how many I have clocked up but Villa Park remains my personal favourite. Always.
WAIT
Stop doomscrolling and answer this fun question
How many soccer stadiums have you been to and whats your favorite one?
Stop doomscrolling and answer this fun question
How many soccer stadiums have you been to and whats your favorite one?
November 18, 2025 at 11:11 PM
No idea how many I have clocked up but Villa Park remains my personal favourite. Always.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
The model uses Monte Carlo simulation to project outcomes in the Bundesliga for the 2025/26 season, but it also models team ratings across the league and predicts upcoming fixtures.
November 16, 2025 at 3:31 PM
The model uses Monte Carlo simulation to project outcomes in the Bundesliga for the 2025/26 season, but it also models team ratings across the league and predicts upcoming fixtures.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
predicting-ball.co.uk
Ever wanted to quantify just how much Bayern Munich are running away with the Meisterschale, but all the projection models out there focus on the Premier League? Well, have I got the model for you!
Ever wanted to quantify just how much Bayern Munich are running away with the Meisterschale, but all the projection models out there focus on the Premier League? Well, have I got the model for you!
Streamlit
predicting-ball.co.uk
November 16, 2025 at 3:14 PM
predicting-ball.co.uk
Ever wanted to quantify just how much Bayern Munich are running away with the Meisterschale, but all the projection models out there focus on the Premier League? Well, have I got the model for you!
Ever wanted to quantify just how much Bayern Munich are running away with the Meisterschale, but all the projection models out there focus on the Premier League? Well, have I got the model for you!
Reposted by Paul Johnson
About to push some decent upgrades to the model at analytic.football
Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong
Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)
Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong
Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)
November 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
About to push some decent upgrades to the model at analytic.football
Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong
Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)
Big change is model now uses recent average errors to move future ratings - so less fluctuation in the ratings but still moving as quickly when it is consistently wrong
Result is less bouncy ratings (new ones on the left)
Reposted by Paul Johnson
A core capability for data science agents is making plots and learning from them. While developing Databot and Positron Assistant, though, we've seen that LLMs tend to ignore plotted trends when they're counterintuitive.
From @sara-altman.bsky.social and I: posit.co/blog/introdu...
From @sara-altman.bsky.social and I: posit.co/blog/introdu...
November 18, 2025 at 3:46 PM
A core capability for data science agents is making plots and learning from them. While developing Databot and Positron Assistant, though, we've seen that LLMs tend to ignore plotted trends when they're counterintuitive.
From @sara-altman.bsky.social and I: posit.co/blog/introdu...
From @sara-altman.bsky.social and I: posit.co/blog/introdu...
Now is the time to break free from the Internet’s chains. Burn your router. Smash your laptop.
November 18, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Now is the time to break free from the Internet’s chains. Burn your router. Smash your laptop.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Labour MP Simon Opher - "We should stop the boats because it's dangerous, and we should stop the scapegoating of immigrants because it's wrong and cruel.
"Measures that create bureaucracy and insecurity do not offer clarity or strengthen control – they cost money, waste time and weaken the system."
"Measures that create bureaucracy and insecurity do not offer clarity or strengthen control – they cost money, waste time and weaken the system."
November 17, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Labour MP Simon Opher - "We should stop the boats because it's dangerous, and we should stop the scapegoating of immigrants because it's wrong and cruel.
"Measures that create bureaucracy and insecurity do not offer clarity or strengthen control – they cost money, waste time and weaken the system."
"Measures that create bureaucracy and insecurity do not offer clarity or strengthen control – they cost money, waste time and weaken the system."
Reposted by Paul Johnson
The fundamental point @stephenkb.bsky.social makes about the proposed asylum policy changes is exactly right - the government is baking “legitimate concerns” rhetoric into action in a way that permissions racist/xenophobic rhetoric while claiming to blunt it. And, worse, I think many know this.
November 18, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The fundamental point @stephenkb.bsky.social makes about the proposed asylum policy changes is exactly right - the government is baking “legitimate concerns” rhetoric into action in a way that permissions racist/xenophobic rhetoric while claiming to blunt it. And, worse, I think many know this.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
It's sad to feel excited about a politician showing basic decency to those most marginalised but it also shows how bad the state of mainstream politics is and how nothing less than radical change is enough
I explore this here
reacpol.net/fascism-no-o...
I explore this here
reacpol.net/fascism-no-o...
November 18, 2025 at 7:26 AM
It's sad to feel excited about a politician showing basic decency to those most marginalised but it also shows how bad the state of mainstream politics is and how nothing less than radical change is enough
I explore this here
reacpol.net/fascism-no-o...
I explore this here
reacpol.net/fascism-no-o...
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Because I know no one really cares about the Bundesliga (and because I wanted to test how well the model generalises), I have tested it out on the Premier League too!
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
November 17, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Because I know no one really cares about the Bundesliga (and because I wanted to test how well the model generalises), I have tested it out on the Premier League too!
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
Because I know no one really cares about the Bundesliga (and because I wanted to test how well the model generalises), I have tested it out on the Premier League too!
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
November 17, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Because I know no one really cares about the Bundesliga (and because I wanted to test how well the model generalises), I have tested it out on the Premier League too!
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
The results look pretty solid to me, though I have a little less faith in how the model does with the Premier League than the BuLi.
This shit fucking rocks
1) Open recipe
2) Type cooked.wiki/ into the very front of the url
3) Get a simple 2-column text of the ingredients & steps
One of the 1st things I learned form the early days of Bluesky!
2) Type cooked.wiki/ into the very front of the url
3) Get a simple 2-column text of the ingredients & steps
One of the 1st things I learned form the early days of Bluesky!
November 17, 2025 at 12:29 AM
This shit fucking rocks
Reposted by Paul Johnson
I'm pretty old (71), so I remember clearly the National Front in the 1970s. They were pariahs that the main political parties wouldn't touch with a 10ft pole. What is shocking is that the LABOUR party is now coming out with the same policies. What on earth would the likes of Benn, Foot etc. think?
November 16, 2025 at 8:26 PM
I'm pretty old (71), so I remember clearly the National Front in the 1970s. They were pariahs that the main political parties wouldn't touch with a 10ft pole. What is shocking is that the LABOUR party is now coming out with the same policies. What on earth would the likes of Benn, Foot etc. think?
Reposted by Paul Johnson
when I hear Starmer speak about immigration and race he's spitting in the face of the Labour voters I knew growing up in Manchester, who put themselves on the line against the National Front - and often the police - in the 1970s and 1980s.
Ultimately the vision of britain that starmer has is profoundly cynical, nasty and just not true. He thinks that abidicating his responsibility in showing that another option is maturity and doing the difficult thing, but he's literally just creating the hateful country he is so afraid of
November 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
when I hear Starmer speak about immigration and race he's spitting in the face of the Labour voters I knew growing up in Manchester, who put themselves on the line against the National Front - and often the police - in the 1970s and 1980s.
Nothing scarier than someone saving one of your posts. Did I do something so stupid that someone is saving it for a dunk later? There certainly can't be another explanation.
November 16, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Nothing scarier than someone saving one of your posts. Did I do something so stupid that someone is saving it for a dunk later? There certainly can't be another explanation.