Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
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Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Hello new Bluesky-ers! Guess I should do one of these awkward introductory posts - work in asset allocation but mostly here for finance, economics, social policy and politics (though the last almost exclusively through a policy lens). Frequently snarky, but aspiring to avoid cantankerousness.
One of these days we’ll be forced to remember that a company pitching itself as a Bitcoin buying company issued enormous numbers of shares to buy said Bitcoin at a premium to the Bitcoin price and made some people rich this way wasn’t, in fact, the most bubbly stock around. Very embarrassing.
November 27, 2025 at 7:01 PM
One of these days we’ll be forced to remember that a company pitching itself as a Bitcoin buying company issued enormous numbers of shares to buy said Bitcoin at a premium to the Bitcoin price and made some people rich this way wasn’t, in fact, the most bubbly stock around. Very embarrassing.
Thanksgiving gingerbread cookies from Honey & Co have arrived
November 26, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Thanksgiving gingerbread cookies from Honey & Co have arrived
Stephen is calling it - insufficiently brave to move the needle on the spending side, and pushing off the tax pain into the next election season. Ain’t gonna hold.
The second year of magical thinking: this evening's newsletter on the Budget:
Rachel Reeves doubles down on wishful thinking
A government that can’t make tough choices now is unlikely to do so on the eve of an election
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Stephen is calling it - insufficiently brave to move the needle on the spending side, and pushing off the tax pain into the next election season. Ain’t gonna hold.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Place-based budget pilots and changes to spending controls in the budget both reflect a growing recognition by this govt that trying to deliver efficiencies by tightly controlling spending and reducing frontline autonomy tends to have the exact opposite effect. That's a really positive shift
November 26, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Place-based budget pilots and changes to spending controls in the budget both reflect a growing recognition by this govt that trying to deliver efficiencies by tightly controlling spending and reducing frontline autonomy tends to have the exact opposite effect. That's a really positive shift
Constantly reminded that tax incidence is hard, and it’s easy to mistake hard-learned answers for basic intuition (and sometimes find I still make bad assumptions first time round).
November 26, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Constantly reminded that tax incidence is hard, and it’s easy to mistake hard-learned answers for basic intuition (and sometimes find I still make bad assumptions first time round).
Since Christmas is just around the corner, giving another nudge to this one because it's (genuinely) beautiful and a great gift
Anna’s new recipe book - Vegetable Genius - is out today and (even though I’m sure I’m biased) I think it looks amazing. Go check it out! amzn.eu/d/8LZKCFX
November 26, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Since Christmas is just around the corner, giving another nudge to this one because it's (genuinely) beautiful and a great gift
Gilts being green while the rest of DM bonds are red is an experience we have not had in a while tbf
November 26, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Gilts being green while the rest of DM bonds are red is an experience we have not had in a while tbf
They wanted to do it because it buys them a lot of revenue flexibility & credibility with bond markets, but they balked because it was deemed too politically painful. My money (figuratively and, I suppose, ultimately literally) is on them still having to do it only closer to the actual election.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has undermined claims made by government officials that they decided to U-turn on plans to raise income tax because they received an improved fiscal forecast from the watchdog
via our FT Budget live blog:
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
via our FT Budget live blog:
www.ft.com/content/d0a5...
UK Budget 2025: Reeves raises taxes by £26bn
Investors taken by surprise as fiscal watchdog publishes data prematurely
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
They wanted to do it because it buys them a lot of revenue flexibility & credibility with bond markets, but they balked because it was deemed too politically painful. My money (figuratively and, I suppose, ultimately literally) is on them still having to do it only closer to the actual election.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Am entirely unfussed about the longer term fiscal targets but very interested in the quantum of spending in the budget and its departmental distribution. Because, ultimately, we can fudge our way to meet targets but what matters is improved public services provision. Do we have meaningful movement?
November 26, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Am entirely unfussed about the longer term fiscal targets but very interested in the quantum of spending in the budget and its departmental distribution. Because, ultimately, we can fudge our way to meet targets but what matters is improved public services provision. Do we have meaningful movement?
I wonder what behavioural response the BoE will imply from increasing taxes on savings and how that might interact with inflation forecasts
November 26, 2025 at 12:32 PM
I wonder what behavioural response the BoE will imply from increasing taxes on savings and how that might interact with inflation forecasts
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
If this had been a set of company results, pretty much the entire investor relations department would have been fined out banned from the industry by now. I know it isn't a set of a company results, but it actually is possible to do these things without leaking
lol here’s the full OBR book someone pressed publish early here’s the budget obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 11:58 AM
If this had been a set of company results, pretty much the entire investor relations department would have been fined out banned from the industry by now. I know it isn't a set of a company results, but it actually is possible to do these things without leaking
The underfunding of DC pensions will continue until morale improves
If the Government do go ahead with the mooted plan in here to (effectively) remove workplace pensions from salary sacrifice schemes I am genuinely a little in awe of how bad their "growth strategy is."
www.ft.com/content/ca5e...
www.ft.com/content/ca5e...
The four audiences Reeves’ ‘high-wire’ Budget must satisfy
Chancellor needs a lot to go right if she is to somehow reconcile interests of Labour MPs, markets, business and the public
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:54 AM
The underfunding of DC pensions will continue until morale improves
This is like the misspellings in Nigerian lottery scam emails - the people who take the bait are the absolute softest marks
Umm, what? Politico: "Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz is looking to launch a co-working space for the ultra-rich in the old MI5 HQ in Mayfair, Bloomberg’s Lucy White reports...He’s chosen Liz Truss to be the public face of the project and to tap up her network to find members."
November 26, 2025 at 10:35 AM
This is like the misspellings in Nigerian lottery scam emails - the people who take the bait are the absolute softest marks
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
The issue with a smorgasbord budget is that instead of annoying everyone once with a big policy move that works, you’ll annoy a whole load of interest groups very specifically in ways that will keep the compromises salient as they campaign for changes/carve-outs.
November 25, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The issue with a smorgasbord budget is that instead of annoying everyone once with a big policy move that works, you’ll annoy a whole load of interest groups very specifically in ways that will keep the compromises salient as they campaign for changes/carve-outs.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 25, 2025 at 1:45 PM
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Much to agree with here, notably on Labour's bewildering lack of interest in what 2010-24 governments actually did in policy terms. But this - something we have known for well over a century! - just cannot be repeated too often.
November 25, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Much to agree with here, notably on Labour's bewildering lack of interest in what 2010-24 governments actually did in policy terms. But this - something we have known for well over a century! - just cannot be repeated too often.
Anyone describing the GFC policy response as “bailing out a bubble” is going to turn me into the joker
November 24, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Anyone describing the GFC policy response as “bailing out a bubble” is going to turn me into the joker
This might sound like a bit but basically…you can’t really impose these taxes in a world that tolerates crypto currencies.
It sounds all but impossible to ban transfers of cash or other assets between countries - without massively impeding all sorts of economic, trade + educational activity, as well as family & other relationships. (It would be possible to apply taxes of various kinds, with some similar challenges)
November 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
This might sound like a bit but basically…you can’t really impose these taxes in a world that tolerates crypto currencies.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
A federal judge has dismissed the charges against former FBI director James Comey, ruling that the former Trump attorney who brought the charges was not legally serving as the U.S. attorney.
November 24, 2025 at 5:41 PM
A federal judge has dismissed the charges against former FBI director James Comey, ruling that the former Trump attorney who brought the charges was not legally serving as the U.S. attorney.
If you’re wondering why private credit proxies are garnering some interest from people looking to fade the AI theme, I think this is the reason
If you want to target the more speculative parts of the structure, where the outcomes are more binary, private credit as a VC proxy is not a bad way of reflecting this. Megascalers have a lot of cash/revenues!
November 24, 2025 at 4:05 PM
If you’re wondering why private credit proxies are garnering some interest from people looking to fade the AI theme, I think this is the reason
We know why left governments struggle in a weak growth environment (their coalition is fragile and the redistribution they want likely has to come out of another part of their base). But the right is now trying to build a coalition of groups with interests in direct conflict with one another.
November 24, 2025 at 3:14 PM
We know why left governments struggle in a weak growth environment (their coalition is fragile and the redistribution they want likely has to come out of another part of their base). But the right is now trying to build a coalition of groups with interests in direct conflict with one another.
This is great. Also, for some reason, the only piano piece that fully lodged in my brain (so I can still play by memory)
November 24, 2025 at 1:48 PM
This is great. Also, for some reason, the only piano piece that fully lodged in my brain (so I can still play by memory)
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
A fortnight ago, Keir Starmer told the Cabinet that leaking was not tolerated from his team. It obviously is! No wonder there is an endemic culture across much of this government of not going 'okay, is that true tho?'
November 24, 2025 at 10:34 AM
A fortnight ago, Keir Starmer told the Cabinet that leaking was not tolerated from his team. It obviously is! No wonder there is an endemic culture across much of this government of not going 'okay, is that true tho?'